Winnemucca, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

792
FXUS65 KLKN 130920
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
220 AM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 152 AM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

 * Elevated fire weather conditions in most of northern and
   central Nevada this afternoon and tomorrow due to gusty winds
   and low relative humidity values.

 * Dry weather with above normal temperatures today into the
   middle of next week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Friday)
Issued at 152 AM PDT Fri Jun 13 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Southwest flow over the area this weekend in response to a
developing shortwave in the flow of a parent low to the northwest
will keep the state warm, but dry through the weekend. The
pressure gradient overhead tightens somewhat Friday afternoon
prompting stronger sustained wind speeds of around 20 mph for most
of the area with gusts approaching 25-30 mph. The gradient relaxes
Saturday though some stronger gusts may still be experienced in
central and east-central NV. A gradual warming trend continues
into the weekend as afternoon highs climb back to into the upper
80s and low 90s Saturday.

Sunday through next Friday...Hot and dry are the key points to
the forecast through next week. An Aleutian low off the western
Canada coast will drag a shortwave trough across northern NV on
Monday. In the downstream flow of the parent low the wave only
skirts the northern border as it traverses the Great Basin
Tuesday. Aside from afternoon highs dipping back into the 70s and
low 80s Monday and Tuesday impact for the region will be minimal.
Moisture availability over the area is scarce at best with PW
values struggling to reach 0.5 inches along the northern border
Monday as the wave and associated boundary pass through the state.
Precipitation and convective chances with the system are
virtually non-existent as the ingredients necessary just aren`t in
place.

Behind the wave zonal flow aloft sets up over the western CONUS
for the mid week between the persistent Aleutian low that
maintains position to the northwest and semi-permanent high
pressure that resides off the Baja coastline. South-southwesterly
surface low on Wednesday will drive temperatures up into the 90s
creating concern for HeatRisk in the area. Hot afternoon highs
will persist through the end of the week.

Thursday the Aleutian low finally begins to migrate southeastward
shifting flow to the southwest over the Great Basin. Late Thursday
into Friday the gradient over the state tightens as the low moves
to just offshore of the Puget Sound. A jet streak embedded in the
downstream of the LPS will enhance windy conditions and the
potential for fire weather concerns Friday afternoon.


 FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

A fairly benign forecast period yields high confidence in a
warming trend and a general lack of moisture across all model
runs. Confidence exists in high temperatures that will contribute
to potential Heat Risk for the area next week but less so for
potential fire weather concerns late next week as ensemble
clusters are in disagreement on timing and positioning of low
pressure system into the western CONUS for both Days 8 and 9.


&&


.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions at all terminals today and tonight with mostly
sunny/clear skies. West to southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts
gusting 15 to 25 kts from 18Z to 04Z today.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

No thunderstorm activity is anticipated across any area fire zones
through next Wednesday. Friday afternoon southwesterly wind speeds
will increase to 15-20 mph sustained with gusts of 25-30 mph for
all fire zones during the evening hours. Low afternoon RH values
will be anticipated everyday through this dry period but fuels
across all northern and central NV fire zones remain at
approaching critical levels through the weekend.

An encroaching low pressure system creates the potential for fire
weather conditions next Friday. Its timing and positioning as
well as the evolution of cured fuels in the area bear monitoring
between now and the latter portions of next week.

&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...99