Nellis AFB, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

866
FXUS65 KVEF 080531
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1030 PM PDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms over the mountains will be
possible across the eastern Sierra and southern Great Basin through
Monday as a ridge of high pressure slowly pushes moisture to the
north. Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will continue to decrease
each afternoon as the region dries out and temperatures climb.
Dangerous heat will be in place early next week, and an Extreme Heat
Watch has been issued for portions of the Mojave Desert for Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...

Early this evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
ongoing across portions of Esmeralda, Nye, and Lincoln Counties,
with some southeastward development noted into far northwestern
Clark County. These storms have been weak and short-lived,
capable of producing brief rainfall and gusty winds, though there
has been quite a bit of lightning, especially over Nye and
northern Lincoln Counties. Expect these storms to continue
percolating for a few more hours, gradually weakening and
diminishing with the loss of heating through late evening. Aside
from minor adjustments to PoPs to capture current conditions and
near term trends, the forecast is on track, with lows expected to
drop into the 60s and 70s for most overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Early afternoon satellite loop
showed cumulus clouds building on the higher terrain roughly north
of a line from Olancha to Las Vegas to Kingman. Thus far, the only
thunderstorms which have managed to develop have been in Lincoln
County, and these have been short-lived. Surface obs showed mostly
light winds with temperatures several degrees higher and dewpoints
several degrees lower than 24 hours ago. Weak low pressure off the
California coast will continue drifting slowly east through Sunday
night, producing weak southerly flow which will advect in drier air
from the south, very slowly drying us out from south to north. This
will keep thunderstorm chances confined to the southern Great Basin,
with slightly less coverage expected Sunday than today. The drier
air will allow temperatures to climb a few more degrees on Sunday,
leading to conditions which could be dangerous for anyone who is
susceptible to the heat or will be outdoors for extended periods.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

The work week will start off hot and dry as ridging maintains the
warming trend, which looks to peak Monday and Tuesday. Highs across
the region will be in the 90s and 100s for all but the mountains,
where temperatures will top out in the 80s - around 8 to 10 degrees
above normal. Monday and Tuesday will also see widespread Moderate
to Major HeatRisk, and an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for
portions of the Mojave Desert for Tuesday. Those with outdoor plans
or who are vulnerable to the heat will need to plan accordingly.
After Tuesday, a pattern shift is expected as a trough begins
developing over the West Coast in response to a deepening low over
the Gulf of Alaska. Cluster analyses and ensemble guidance continue
to be in good agreement, keeping this system to the west of the
area, which will result in a transition to quasi-zonal or
southwesterly flow aloft midweek onward. This will allow for a slow
cooling trend as heights fall, though temperatures will still remain
above normal through the end of the week. There are also indications
of weak shortwaves rounding the base of the larger-scale trough, but
given the dry antecedent conditions, little will result from these
shortwaves beyond periodic breezy conditions across the region.
Overall, the pattern looks to be fairly quiescent through next week,
and a bit more on par with what`s to be expected in early to mid
June.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Southwesterly winds of under 10 knots will become variable
early this morning. Winds shift to the east/southeast late in the
morning with cloud buildup over mountains to the west and north.
Southwesterly winds return tomorrow night.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Quiet weather is
expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms develop in the
southern Great Basin tomorrow afternoon, potentially reaching the
eastern Sierra. Storms should stay outside of the vicinity of KBIH,
but breezy outflows may reach the terminal. Westerly to
southwesterly winds pick up in the western Mojave Desert tomorrow
night.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Phillipson
SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Meltzer

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