Fernley, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

361
FXUS65 KREV 231046
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
246 AM PST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

* Today will be an ideal day for holiday travel as dry and mild
  weather prevails.

* A Christmas Eve storm will bring gusty winds, valley rain, and
  heavier mountain snow with impacts to recreation and travel.

* Tranquil weather prevails on Christmas with additional storms
  likely late this week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A dry and mild Monday is in store as transient high pressure
overspreads the region. Thus, today will be a great day to do
holiday travel about and across the Sierra before the weather
outside turns frightful. A winter storm arrives to the Sierra and
western Nevada late Monday night into the morning of Christmas
Eve, bringing gusty winds, wetting lower elevation rain, and
heavier Sierra snow through Tuesday afternoon. This storm will
likely be bimodal with its precipitation traits: 1) A period of
steadier rain/snow with higher snow levels and heavy embedded
showers along/ahead of a cold front, and 2) a window of showery,
hit-or-miss type rain/snow with lower snow levels once the cold
front has passed.

The first phase of this storm is favored to occur during the morning
of Christmas Eve. This is when the Sierra (above 7000 feet) is most
likely to see its heaviest snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr over a longer
duration (about 3-6 hours around mid to late morning). There is
potential (20-40% chance) of snowfall rates of 3"/hr along the
Sierra crest should heavier convective showers develop. Snow levels
begin above 7000 feet at the onset before falling to 6000 feet in
the afternoon, so rain will likely switch to snow for Sierra passes
and lower elevation Sierra communities north of Mono County before
the afternoon of Christmas Eve. The caveat to this being the
potential that heavier showers lower snow levels earlier in the
morning than expected. Also, don`t be surprised to hear some
rumbles of thunder amid the falling Sierra snow Tuesday AM!
Meanwhile, periods of spillover rain will impact portions of
western Nevada. Additionally, strongest winds are also favored
during the morning of Christmas Eve with most locales having a
30-50% chance of gusts exceeding 40 mph.

The second phase of this storm will likely occur in the late morning
and afternoon once the cold front passes through. Snow levels lower
further during this time, most notably in Mono County, and approach
5500 feet by Tuesday evening. We`ll likely see quick bursts of rain
and snow (above 5500-6000 feet) in the afternoon and early evening
before showers wrap up Tuesday night. Once again, cannot rule out
isolated lightning with the stronger showers in the afternoon as
lapse rates steepen. By Christmas morning, 8-12" of snow will likely
have fallen along the Sierra crest with 30-60% chance of exceeding a
foot of snowfall. Meanwhile, communities near lake level will likely
see 1-3" with an outside chance (10-15%) of 4" or more. It is also
possible (15-30% chance) that foothills/Virginia City receive a
dusting of snow by Christmas morning.

Christmas Day will be much more tranquil, albeit a bit on the chilly
side with daytime highs in the upper 30s and 40s. After Christmas
Day, a series of quick-moving storms will may bring additional
showers and increased winds on Thursday and Friday, with perhaps a
stronger storm lurking around the 29th. Ensembles continue to favor
the emergence of a drier weather pattern to ring in 2025.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

After light rain showers near KTRK/KTVL and Sierra Front terminals
end around 12Z, widespread VFR conditions and light breezes will
prevail today. FL100 winds will increase after 00Z and reach its
apex of 45-55 kts Tuesday AM (between 09-15Z), lending some LLWS and
turbulence concerns tonight and Tuesday AM. An incoming winter storm
is expected to lower CIGS/VIS to IFR conditions for Sierra terminals
and MVFR conditions for Sierra Front terminals much of Tuesday
before better flying conditions return Wednesday.

-Salas

&&

.AVALANCHE...

A winter storm is expected to bring strong ridgetop wind gusts
and heavy mountain snow on Tuesday.

* Snow levels begin above 7000 feet early Tuesday morning before
  falling to near 5500 feet Tuesday evening.

* Snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are likely on Tuesday, especially during
  the morning above 7000 feet.

* Total snowfall along the Sierra crest will be between 8-12" with
  a 30-60% chance of a foot or more on highest peaks. There is a
  40-70% chance of SWE of an inch or greater on Tuesday.

* Strong southwest gusts exceeding 90-100 mph are expected along
  exposed Sierra ridges Tuesday AM.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday CAZ071>073.

&&

$$