Elko, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

757
FXUS65 KLKN 120948
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
248 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 112 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

 * A slight chance for (5-10%) of severe thunderstorms in
   northeastern Elko County through this evening.

 * Elevated fire weather conditions in most of northern and central
   Nevada today due to gusty winds and low relative humidity
   values.

 * Dry weather with above normal temperatures today into the
   middle of next week.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(Today through next Thursday)
Issued at 112 AM PDT Thu Jun 12 2025

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Westerly zonal flow Thursday morning gradually shifted to the
southwest by Thursday night over the Great Basin. A weak shortwave
to the north of NV will slide its axis across the ID/NV border
beginning Thursday morning. Enough instability and forcing exists
with the boundary to initiate shower and thunderstorm activity
along the border Thursday. Best chances for convection are
forecast to be over northeastern and eastern Elko county Thursday
afternoon. LCLs near 10K feet paired with PW values between 0.5
and 0.6 suggest dry thunderstorms over the northeastern corner of
the state though a few hundredths of accumulation is possible in
higher elevations.

On Friday the focus shifts to fire weather. The southwesterly turn
in winds in the profile is in response to a trough pushing ashore
over the Pacific NW. While the trough will help minimal impact
across the area it will tighten the pressure gradient over the
region. This will increase southwesterly wind speeds on Friday
with gusts near 25 mph. Combined with low RHs Friday afternoon
there is concern fire spread though fuels across the region are
approaching critical at best.

Saturday through Sunday...500 mb high pressure ridge builds back
in over the area with temperatures rising to 8-12 degrees above
normal. Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are forecast to persist
across northern and central nevada as the subtropical 500 mb high
pressure ridge builds back into the area, with a low pressure
trough persisting just off and along the west coast.

Monday through Tuesday, another low pressure trough is forecast to
move across northern and central Nevada. Looking at the ensembles
during this same time period, 28% of the members support a much
cooler and more moist system moving across the area. While 72% of
the ensemble members indicate a much weaker trough coming across
the area on zonal flow, thus keeping temperatures 4-8 degrees
above normal with warm and breezy conditions.

Wednesday through Thursday of next week the ensemble forecast
support a return of a more flattened subtropical high pressure
ridge over the area with high temperatures running 6-10 degrees
above normal values for this time of the year. Dry conditions are
forecast to persist.

 FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Moderate to high confidence in above normal temperatures
continuing through the forecast period even though the subtropical
high pressure ridge flattens early next week with the passage of a
low pressure trough moving through the area. High forecast
confidence in dry conditions and low afternoon RHs. 2 parts forecast
and 1 part 90th percentiles were used for both wind & wind gusts
for Saturday 21 UTC to Sunday 03 UTC.


&&


.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight at all
terminals under mostly clear/sunny skies. Westerly winds of 10 to
15 knots gusting 20 to 25 knots will develop around 19Z and remain
gusty through around 02Z.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Northern NV border fire zones are subject to thunderstorm activity
on Thursday as a weak shortwave will increase energy over fire
zones 438/469/470. High bases around 10000K feet and dry but
efficient PW values will create dry convection for those zones
until sunset Thursday. On Friday the focus shifts to southwesterly
flow that will be strong but not quite criteria level for our
area. Friday afternoon wind speeds will increase from 15 to near
20KTs for all zones. Wind gusts in the 20-25KT range are forecast
for fire zones south of I-80 with low RH anticipated in all zones
save for around the northern NV border. Hot, dry weather will
continue for the region into the weekend.

&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...85
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...99