Papillion, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

348
FXUS63 KOAX 122208
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
508 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog may develop again late tonight into early Wednesday
  morning, mainly along and east of the Missouri River.

- A complex of thunderstorms may move into portions of northeast
  Nebraska late Wednesday night and may be capable of strong to
  locally damaging wind gusts (20-40% chance).

- Heat and humidity builds through the end of the week with peak
  heat indices of 100-105 degrees Friday and Saturday.

- Periodic shower and storm chances return Saturday night
  through early next week (20-40%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

A cold front/surface trough axis continues to gradually drift
across the area this afternoon turning winds northerly in its
wake. Either side of this boundary temperatures have still
managed to warm into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. A stray
shower or two can`t be ruled out along the boundary but most
areas will remain dry. Expect any remaining diurnal cumulus to
erode with sunset with winds easing as surface high pressure
becomes established in the wake of the departing mid-upper
trough.

While it may not have as great of coverage as the past couple
of nights, the combination of light to near calm winds, clear
skies, and residual low-level moisture will set the stage for
yet another night of fog development for portions of the area.
The best potential currently favors areas along the Missouri
River and east into Iowa. Locally dense fog can`t be ruled out
but confidence in this remains low.

Southerly winds will return on Wednesday as the surface high
shifts east of the area with high temperatures in the 80s again.
We will have to keep an eye on a cluster of storms that may
move across South Dakota associated with a very weak mid-level
wave during the day on Wednesday but at this time it looks like
it should remain north of the state line and be relatively weak.

A stronger shortwave currently moving into Wyoming will eject
off the Rockies on Wednesday with an associated complex of
thunderstorms expected to develop and move across far northern
Nebraska and South Dakota late Wednesday through Wednesday night.
There remains a signal that this activity could move into
portions of the area after midnight (potentially in a decaying
state). Accordingly, the latest SPC Day 2 outlook recently
expanded the severe potential (threat Level 1 of 5) further
into northeast Nebraska, mainly northwest of an Ord to Norfolk
to Vermillion, SD line. The main threat with these storms are
strong to locally damaging wind gusts in addition to frequent
lightning and heavy downpours.

The upper level ridge will continue to build across the region
late week which will bring a return to hot and humid conditions.
Forecast high temperatures both Friday and Saturday are in the
upper 80s to mid 90s with peak afternoon heat indices in the
100-105 degree ranges.

As is often the case after a period of warmer weather, the
pattern turns more active early next week as the upper ridge
attempts to flatten out. This will lead to periodic shower and
storm chances (20-40%) as multiple disturbances round the ridge
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this evening. A cold
front pushing south across KOMA and KLNK is bringing scattered
clouds at 3000-4000 ft. A few isolated showers will be possible
along this area, but the chances of these showers impacting the
terminals is low (<15% chance). Winds will continue out of the
north- northeast before becoming calm and variable overnight.

Fog is expected to develop overnight for areas near and east of
the Missouri River. Fog potential looks to be constrained to
just KOMA. MVFR conditions are expected for a portion of the
overnight period. We could see patchy IFR conditions, though
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Fog
is expected to gradually improve after sunrise with winds
shifting to the south-southeast through the day.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petr
AVIATION...Wood