Papillion, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

865
FXUS63 KOAX 022015
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
315 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect westerly winds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 40-45 mph into
  early this evening.

- Periodic rain chances are expected Thursday evening through
  Saturday (peaking at 60-80%), but amounts are looking on the
  lighter side (most under 0.25"). Dry and seasonable weather
  is expected Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Early afternoon analysis showed the surface low responsible for
our recent showers and storms spinning along the IA/MN border.
Westerly to northwesterly wind gusts of 25-35 mph were seen area
wide, with a few touching 40 mph. Those should die off fairly
quickly this evening as the low pushes into WI and the pressure
gradient relaxes.

The bulk of Thursday should be fairly nice with lighter winds
and temperatures topping out in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Meanwhile, some shortwave energy will eject out of a larger
scale trough over the Desert Southwest and approach our area
Thursday evening. Latest guidance has trended toward the
strongest forcing for ascent staying just to our west with the
initial bit of energy and just to our east with a second on
Friday. Still think we`ll get at least some light rain in a
decent chunk of our area from Thursday night through Saturday
morning (60-80% chance), but amounts will probably leave a lot
to be desired. Right now we`re looking at 0.05" to 0.25" for
most (probably shade toward the lower end), but portions of
northeast NE could get clipped by some slightly higher amounts
along with a few snowflakes early Saturday (little to no
accumulation expected).

Rain should exit the area by Saturday afternoon, but it still
won`t be very pleasant outside despite temperatures in the 50s,
as north winds look to be gusting 25-35 mph. A cold front will
pass through Sunday night as a fairly strong trough and surface
low pass through the Great Lakes. Guidance suggests associated
precip (possibly light snow pending exact timing) will stay to
our east and closer to the low. Plus soundings look pretty dry
in the low levels for us, so just not much to work with over
here, but given cyclonic flow and a little forcing, wouldn`t
completely rule out some sprinkles or flurries. Beyond that
we`ll be stuck under northwest flow aloft well into the next
week. Guidance suggests we`ll see a few various bits of
shortwave energy slide through and give us at least small precip
chances, but still lots of spread in timing. Right now the
highest chances (still under 15%) would be sometime
Tuesday/Wednesday. Temperature-wise, we`ll stay in the 40s and
50s through Monday. Then the upper level ridge to our west will
start edging eastward with surface flow becoming southerly
allowing us to warm up into the 60s toward the middle of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

MVFR ceilings will exit through this afternoon with VFR
conditions expected by late this afternoon into the evening and
thereafter. West winds will gust 30-35 kts this afternoon
before weakening this evening and becoming more northwesterly to
northerly overnight and into Thursday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA