Gering, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

133
FXUS65 KCYS 221103
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
403 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High Wind Warning are in effect for the wind prone zones of
  southeast Wyoming through this afternoon and evening.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for central and eastern
  Laramie County due to low RH and very gusty winds.

- Record breaking warmth is expected to continue through at
  least Thursday.

- Strong gusts alongside more record warmth expected on
  Christmas Day, followed by temperatures cooling slightly by
  next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 156 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Fairly quiet tonight with some stronger wind gusts ongoing in the
typical wind prone regions of southeast Wyoming. High level clouds
are slowly drifting across the CWA this morning, with some lower
clouds over southwest Carbon County and the higher elevations.
Temperatures remain warm tonight, with current readings in the 40s
and 50s across Wyoming and 30s and 40s across the Panhandle.
Alliance is the cold spot this morning, with a current temperature
of 31F. Gusty winds will continue across Wyoming today, with breezy
conditions across the Panhandle.

Upper-level ridging is dominating the central CONUS and will
continue to stick around through much of the week. Westerly to
southwesterly winds aloft will continue, leading to mostly benign
weather over the next few days. 700mb winds tell a different story,
with strong, westerly winds through the day today. A diffuse
shortwave traversed through the 700mb flow earlier this evening, but
700mb height gradients remain strong. The 700mb Craig to Casper
gradient is sitting around 55 to 60m as of 08Z, leading to strong
wind gusts across the Arlington/Elk Mountain wind prone zone. The
700mb jet across the Laramie Range will reach its peak intensity
between 09 and 12Z this morning, with jet speeds around 65 to 70kts
according to the GFS. Even the ECMWF is quite excited this morning,
with a 700mb jet of around 55 to 60kts. This jet looks to remain in
place throughout much of the day, with maxed out downward omega
values across the Laramie Range. The maximum omega values across the
southern Laramie Range will slowly migrate eastward and begin to
encroach on the Cheyenne area. The strongest gradients will be the
closest to Cheyenne between about 18 and 00Z, with a 700mb jet
around 60kts, surface pressure gradients around 3mb across the South
Laramie Range, and the surface trough positioned just north of
Cheyenne proper. It looks fairly likely that the Bear Creek sensor
near the Laramie/Platte County line will likely exceed High Wind
criteria, but Cheyenne has slightly less confidence due to the
strongest downward omega values potentially just slightly too far
west. However, with the strong downward omegas, strong 700mb jet,
and strong gradients, decided to expand the High Wind Warning into
Central Laramie County from 11AM this morning to 5PM this afternoon,
as this will be the best time frame to potentially see high winds at
Cheyenne. Also extended the I-80 Summit, Foothills, and Bordeaux
wind prone zones to 00Z, rather than the original 21Z. Strong
downward omega values and the strong 700mb jet will likely linger
across these area through the early evening and a gust above 60mph
cannot be ruled out between 2PM and 5PM. Additionally, in-house
random forest guidance is in favor of a slightly longer period of
high winds for these zones.

Aside from the wind threat today, record warmth is expected to
continue across the CWA Monday through potentially Friday. Very
anomalous 700mb warmth combined with downsloping winds will lead to
abnormally warm temperatures throughout the week. On Monday, highs
will range from the low-50s to potentially 70F! Looking at the NAEFS
Mean 700mb temperatures, much of the CWA will be above the 97.5th
percentile, with the southeastern most zones in the 99.5th
percentile. 700mb temperatures will only warm going into Tuesday,
with 700mb Mean Temperatures above the 99th percentile everywhere in
the CWA. These upper-percentile temperature will continue throughout
the entire week, with all locations above the 97.5th percentile
Monday through Thursday. Therefore, many daily high temperature
records will likely be broken, with the forecast containing daily
record high temperatures for many areas. Very little precipitation
is expected through most of the week, but western zones may start to
see increasing precipitation starting Wednesday afternoon. However,
with warm and dry conditions Monday and Tuesday, fire weather
concerns are increasing. With afternoon relative humidity values in
the 15 to 20% range and winds gusting 50 to 60 mph this afternoon, a
Red Flag Warning has been issued for Central and Eastern Laramie
County. Any fires that start will see very favorable conditions for
rapid fire spread. Tuesday hosts another concern for fire weather,
but afternoon relative humidity values look to be slightly higher
Tuesday compared to Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 156 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

No major changes to the long term forecast tonight. Gusty winds are
expected to return for Christmas Day before slightly cooler
temperatures finally return to the region behind a cold front
Thursday into Friday. However, even with the cold front expected to
cool the region down by around 15 to 20F, daily high temperatures
are still expected to be above average for this time of year.

Please see the previous discussion for more details...

The long term forecast is mainly dominated by an upper ridge pattern
centered over Eastern Texas for the most part. An amplified ridge
axis will move over the Intermountain west calming down the winds.
The winds will be quite weak compared to the previous week but still
maintain a slight breeze Tuesday into Wednesday. 700mb temperatures
are expected to raise from the 3 to 4C range on monday into the 5 to
6C range on Tuesday into Wednesday. This slight increase in 700mb
temperatures will lead to surface temperatures to bu in the 50`s
west of I-25 and into the 60`s east of I-25 to continue this warm
pattern. There is a slight disturbance in the Upper levels come
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday (Christmas). Wednesday afternoon,
the upper level low dives down the Pacific Coastline sending a
shortwave across our ridge along the Canadian Border. The shortwave
will produce a cold front across Southeast Wyoming and the Panhandle
producing some possible snow showers for the mountains and and a
rain/snow mix for the adjacent areas west of I-25. Ensemble guidance
continues to be in agreement about the surface temperatures being in
the high 50`s if not breaking 60 for areas east of I-25 come
Christmas day. So hopes for a white christmas look very slim.
Christmas Day and Friday does look to be breezy as that shortwave
moves across the Canadian Providences however, the models have
trended towards a weaker jet throughout the day Thursday so its
still a little bit uncertain if we will need a high wind warning for
that time period. Our in house algorithm only gives Arlington a 40
to 60 percent chance of reaching high winds Christmas day. But the
winds will definitely be elevated and we have strong subsident flow
over the I-25 corridor for possible mountain wave activity.
The weekend looks to be a like cooler and more seasonable as 700mb
temperatures cool back into the negatives for temperatures possibly
in the 40`s and 50`s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the entire 12Z TAF period.
The primary aviation concern will be strong winds across southeast
Wyoming. KRWL, KLAR, and KCYS have to potential to gust between 45
and 50kts throughout the day before slowly tapering off between 21
and 00Z this afternoon/evening. KBFF, KCDR, KSNY, and KAIA will see
wind gusts between 25 and 30kts this afternoon before tapering off
between 21 and 00Z. Low-level wind shear will be a concern at all
terminals this morning as lower-level atmospheric winds remain
strong throughout much of the day.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ106-116-
     117.
     High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ109-110.
     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for WYZ430-431.
     High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for WYZ118.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...MM/AM
AVIATION...AM