Falls City, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

148
FXUS63 KOAX 132015
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
215 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 20 to 45% chance for light rain this afternoon and evening
  with decreasing chances overnight. Strong northwest winds with
  gusts up to 30 to 35+ mph into Wednesday morning.

- A 15 to 35% chance for snow showers in northeast Nebraska into
  northwest Iowa Friday. Strong northwest winds gusting to 45+
  mph Friday, which could lead to travel impacts (20 to 40%
  chance) due to reduced visibility.

- Cold Saturday with highs in the teens and 20s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Remainder of this afternoon through Wednesday:

Early afternoon water vapor imagery and objective analysis show
an intense vorticity maximum over the Great Lakes with a
separate zone of channeled vorticity from southern Saskatchewan
into western ND, on the immediate cyclonic side of mid/upper-
level wind maxima. Forcing for ascent attendant to the latter
disturbance coupled with a downstream band of frontogenesis
centered at 700 mb have contributed to the development of a
broken, light precipitation band extending from the Black Hills
into southeast NE as of 2 PM. Latest CAM guidance suggests the
precipitation band will weaken while moving southeast through
the remainder of the afternoon. The models then indicate a
separate wave of isolated to widely scattered rain showers
moving south through our area this evening into tonight.

Our midday balloon indicates a considerable amount of dry air
below 700 mb (9-10 kft), so much of the initial precipitation
will simply go into saturating that layer of dry air, and not
reach the ground. As such, modest PoPs (20-45%) have been
maintained this afternoon and evening. Weak buoyancy evident in
forecast soundings may be sufficient for an isolated lightning
strike or two with any deeper convective elements moving south
through the area this evening. Any lingering precipitation could
transition to snow showers late tonight into Wednesday morning
as temperatures fall below the freezing mark.

We`ll see a steady increase in wind speeds this afternoon into
tonight with gusts increasing to 30-35+ mph. The gusty winds
will continue through Wednesday morning before diminishing by
afternoon. Temperatures will be notably cooler than those today
with highs in the 30s.


Thursday through Saturday:

The primary focus this period is the potential for impactful
weather associated with a series of intense, mid-level
disturbances that will progress south through the area. A
surface cold front is expected to move through the area on
Thursday with high temperatures in the 40s to low 50s ahead of
the boundary falling into the 30s Friday, and teens and 20s
Saturday. Overnight lows in the teens and single digits are
forecast on Saturday and Sunday mornings. The colder
temperatures will coincide with considerably stronger northwest
winds, especially Thursday night through Friday. Latest EPS data
continue to indicate a 30-80% chance of at least 45 mph wind
gusts Friday with the highest probabilities in our western
counties. EPS median wind gust values range from 45-50 mph at
that time. Assuming that forecast remains consistent, we will
likely need at least a Wind Advisory.

This forecast update will maintain the 15-35% snow chances
Friday in northeast NE and northwest IA. Based on some of the
12z deterministic model output, the areal PoP coverage and PoPs
themselves may be underdone. The 12z long-range ensemble (LREF)
continues to indicate a 50-80% chance of at least 0.1" snowfall
accumulation in those areas with the probabilities falling to
10-30% for at least a 0.5". So, relatively high confidence in a
dusting of light snow. The overall setup Friday appears to be
supportive of convective snow showers that might not produce a
lot of snow, but will be capable of rapid visibility reductions,
especially given the strong winds. Accordingly, the probabilistic
WSSI is indicating a 20-40% chance of minor travel impacts in
northeast NE Friday. Keep an eye on the forecast if you have
travel plans at that time.


Sunday and Monday:

There is a growing model signal for another clipper-type system
to move south through the region Sunday with associated
precipitation chances and strong northwest winds. We`ll have to
wait and see what subsequent model runs show. The NBM indicates
a considerable amount of spread in temperature during this
period, so confidence in any specific numbers is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail into this evening with
a 40-60% chance of periodic MVFR ceilings (FL020-030)
developing after about 14/03z-14/04z. Uncertainty in specific
timing and duration of any MVFR ceiling occurrence precludes
inclusion into this forecast update. Isolated to widely
scattered showers are also possible (15-30% chance) at the
terminal locations this afternoon into tonight. The same
uncertainties described for the ceiling restrictions also apply
to the precipitation chances. Northwest winds should continue
to strengthen this afternoon with sustained speeds of 12-16 kt
and gusts up to 24-27 kt continuing overnight into Wednesday
morning.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead