Blair, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

004
FXUS63 KOAX 021120
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
620 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thundershowers (50-90% chance) will continue through
  the morning. A Flood Advisory is in effect in extreme
  southeast Nebraska until 5:30 AM as training storms brings
  an expected 1-3" of total rainfall.

- Breezy westerly winds will increase this afternoon and
  evening, with sustained speeds of 20-25 mph and gusts up to 40
  mph expected.

- Periodic rain chances are expected Thursday evening through
  Saturday. Dry and seasonable weather is expected Sunday
  through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Short Term (Today and Tomorrow)

Upper level analysis this morning displays an amplifying mid to
upper level trough beginning to push into the central Plains. A lead
wave in the system spun up a surface low that tracked across NE/KS
last night and will continue to pull to the northeast today. While
severe weather potential has exited the area for the night, remnant
showers and thunderstorms will continue as we reside on the back
side of the low through the late morning hours (PoPs 50-90%). We
could also see some fog/drizzle reducing visibility this morning,
especially in northeast NE. A Flood Advisory remains in effect for
extreme southeast NE (Richardson and Nemaha counties) until 5:30 AM.
This area is expected to receive rainfall totals of 1-3" as training
storms continue to pull northeast across the area. The primary
hazard will be nighttime driving and water ponding on roadways. The
area will continue to be monitored this morning for potential Flash
Flood Warnings.

The surface low pulling to the northeast will gradually clear skies
from south to north through the afternoon and evening. Highs today
are expected in the mid 60s in southeast NE and southwest IA,
decreasing to the low 50s in northeast NE where cloud cover will
linger into the afternoon. Strong wind gusts will also kick in later
this morning. Westerly winds are expected to sustain at 20-25 mph
with gusts working up to 40 mph. Have opted against a Wind Advisory
this afternoon for the time being as confidence in 45+ mph wind
gusts is low. Winds will calm into the evening with a calm day
expected on Thursday. Highs on Thursday are expected to top out in
the 50s with cloud cover increasing through the day.

Long Term (Friday and Beyond)

Through the remainder of the week, a broad upper level trough will
persist over the western and central CONUS, maintaining
predominantly southwesterly flow aloft across the region. Several
perturbations rooted in the broad upper level trough will push
through the region, bringing additional precipitation chances
into the weekend. Severe weather potential with these chances
are low. The first disturbance will arrive Thursday evening into
Friday, bringing a 40- 70% chance of rain showers. Highs on
Friday are expected to peak in the 50s.

A cold front is expected to push through the area Friday night,
dropping Saturday highs into the 40s. The second disturbance will
eject across the area Saturday, bringing a 30-60% chance of
precipitation. The bulk of the precipitation is expected to fall as
light rain, though a brief rain/snow mix can`t be ruled out as
overnight lows dip into the upper 20s. Sunday and Monday appear dry
with high temperatures in the 50s. Further into next week, a ridge
is expected to build into the central Plains, bringing a shot at
some above average temperatures/highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

IFR/LIFR conditions this morning with a few lingering showers
across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Winds this morning are
out of the northwest and will become more westerly with time,
increasing to 20g30kt later this morning. Cigs gradually
improve to MVFR later this morning, then VFR later this
afternoon with clearing skies this evening. Expect improvement
earlier at KLNK and latest at KOFK. Winds relax around 00Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wood
AVIATION...McCoy