Shelby, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

917
FXUS65 KTFX 021136
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
536 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Snow will decrease across Central and Southwestern Montana
   this morning, before the next round moves into North Central
   Montana this evening.

 - Warm and dry over the weekend, as upper level ridging builds
   into the area.

 - Next chance for precipitation looks to be early next week, as
   a cold front moves through the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 416 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Snowfall across Central and Southwestern Montana will come to an
end early this morning as the upper level trough that moved
through the area yesterday weakens and moves eastward. After a
mostly dry rest of the day across the area, our next round of
snowfall will push into the area overnight tonight as a cold
front begins to move in from the north. As this front pushes
through the area, most of the snow (and lower elevation rain)
will be focused mainly along the immediate Rocky Mountain Front
though a few heavier snow showers could form on the plains.
Behind this front, high pressure will build in at the surface
followed by ridging aloft for the weekend, which will result in a
warmer and drier weekend. Our next weather system will move into
the area early next week, bringing increased chances for rain and
windy conditions to the area.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Snow Tonight and Thursday: Light snow is expected to develop
along the Rocky Mountain Front and Plains overnight tonight and
tomorrow as a cold front pushes into the area from Canada. For
the most part, expect snow to be light and accumulations to be
minimal (and generally limited to grassy and elevated surfaces at
that), though a few opportunities do exist for some more
impactful snowfall. The main area will be along the Rocky
Mountain Front, where some easterly winds will result in
upsloping, which will yield a 40% or higher chance of 6 inches of
snow in the higher terrain (with an 80% chance in Glacier
National Park). The other opportunity for snow to be a bit more
impactful will be if convective snow showers are able to develop
along and ahead of the cold front, as these would result in brief
periods of reduced visibility and may be able to overcome melting
on the roads and result in briefly slick travel.

Early next week: As a cold front pushes into the area next week,
expect precipitation to be mainly rain across the lower
elevations with some snow over the passes. As colder air moves
back into the area, some gusty winds may be possible,
particularly in the wind prone areas near the Rocky Mountain
Front. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
02/12Z TAF Period

The widespread snowfall associated with a weak low pressure area
will continue to be focused mostly over Southwest Montana through
18Z or so, bringing widespread mountain obscuring MVFR/IFR
conditions. However, low clouds with patchy fog with
mountain/terrain obscuring MVFR/IFR conditions in the KCTB area
at 1130Z are forecast to continue spreading southeast over the
plains of North Central and Central Montana through around 16Z.
Most areas will improve a bit to mainly mountain top obscuring low
VFR/MVFR ceilings after 18Z, but weak instability may bring
scattered rain and snow showers to much of the area between 19Z
and 01Z. After 00Z, more widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings, likely
with some light snow, are forecast to spread southeast out of
Canada over the plains.
-Coulston

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  26  35  19 /  40  20  80  40
CTB  40  24  32  14 /  30  60  90  10
HLN  45  27  42  22 /  50  30  50  50
BZN  42  23  44  21 /  60  30  40  60
WYS  37  14  40  16 /  60  40  50  50
DLN  42  25  45  23 /  30  30  30  30
HVR  45  25  37  17 /  20  60  80  10
LWT  40  22  36  18 /  40  20  70  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT
Friday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western
Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High
Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Big
Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Gallatin and
Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Little Belt
and Highwood Mountains-Meagher County Valleys.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for
Canyon Ferry Area-Helena Valley-Madison River Valley-Missouri
Headwaters.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls