Malmstrom AFB, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

772
FXUS65 KTFX 020206
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
806 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
   evening hours.

 - Precipitation will become more widespread tonight and into the
   day on Monday with the heaviest precipitation falling east of a
   line between White Sulphur Springs, Geyser, and Hays.

 - Unsettled weather is expected to continue through the rest of
   the week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Current forecast is on track for this evening, no updates planned
for. The threat for stronger thunderstorms for this evening has
pretty much ended, as the best instability has now moved east of
our area. The main concern overnight will be if the showers over
South Central MT shift northwest and become more of a stratiform
rain over Central and North Central MT. Some showers are trying to
develop northwest of Cut Bank as well currently. We will see how
this all develops overnight for the potential rainfall during the
day on Monday. Brusda

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 511 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are already developing across
portions of central and southwest Montana which will continue
through the rest of the evening and become more widespread by
Monday morning. There is a marginal threat for severe weather
across southwest Montana through this evening with the main
threats being damaging winds and hail. Lightning will also be a
concern for those recreating outdoors. Already some stronger
thunderstorms have started to develop and will become more
widespread later in the day, moving off to the northeast. The main
concern for severe weather is expected to diminish by midnight.
-thor

High temperatures today across all of Southwest through North
Central will be 15 to 25 degrees colder than that of Saturday
thanks to this initial cold front, with temperatures falling an
additional 10 to 20 degrees on Monday as the re-enforcing cold
front surges south through tonight. By Monday the upper level
disturbance will move over the Northern Rockies, with
precipitation transitioning to more of a widespread stratiform
rain and rain/snow mix for elevations above 7500 feet.
Precipitation gradually winds down from northwest to southeast
through Monday evening as the upper level disturbance slides east
over the Northern High Plains, with clearing skies Monday night
allowing overnight lows to fall into the 30s across lower
elevations.

Unsettled northwest to zonal flow from Tuesday through the upcoming
weekend will help to maintain nearly daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms across the Northern Rockies, with temperatures
gradually moderating back above normal from Thursday through the
upcoming weekend. - Moldan


&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z TAF Period

The main concern through the first 6 hours of the TAF period will
be across southwest Montana as scattered thunderstorms pose a risk
for gusty, erratic winds, hail, and lightning. Periods of MVFR and
IFR conditions are possible as well as mountain obscuration.

Showers will become more widespread across the region heading
into the evening hours and continuing through Monday afternoon.
Low clouds will bring MVFR ceilings across north-central and
central Montana Monday morning with periods of rain expected to
last through much of the day. There is a less than 20% chance for
thunderstorms Monday afternoon with gusty winds and heavy
downpours being the main concerns but confidence was not high
enough to mention in this round of TAFs.  -thor


Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Gallatin River is still expected to rise over the next day or
so, but still generally remain below flood stage. Overall, the
precipitation has been light in the Gallatin valley this evening,
thus the potential for flooding looks to be lowering. The RFC
will have updated forecasts in the morning with the expected
rainfall to see if any adjustments need to be made to the current
forecast. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  57  37  68 /  80  80  10  20
CTB  39  58  35  66 /  70  80   0  30
HLN  49  61  40  70 /  60  60  10  20
BZN  45  61  36  65 /  90  60  10  20
WYS  40  58  30  60 /  70  40  20  30
DLN  43  61  36  63 /  50  20   0  10
HVR  45  61  38  71 /  30  70  10  20
LWT  42  52  35  63 / 100  90  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls