Malmstrom AFB, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

465
FXUS65 KTFX 131958
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1258 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Warmest day of the upcoming week is expected on Wednesday,
   with the potential for multiple locations to set record high
   temperatures.

 - Strong and gusty southwest winds continue on Wednesday along
   the Rocky Mountain Front.

 - Overall dry conditions expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the pattern across the
western 1/3rd of the CONUS and Canada through the weekend; with the
ridge axis briefly sliding east over the Rockies through Wednesday
ahead of shortwave moving over the top of the ridge in Northern
Canada before shifting back west over the western seaboard by
Wednesday night. At the surface surface troughing in lee of the
Continental Divide will continue to support a moderate to strong
surface pressure gradient along the Rocky Mountain Front, Island
Ranges of Central Montana, and along the I-90 corridor in Southwest
Montana through Thursday morning. This pressure gradient will drive
strong and gusty south to west surface winds across these areas,
with breezy conditions occurring elsewhere.

High temperatures look to peak on Wednesday as the ridge axis moves
overheard, with temperatures `cooling` but remaining well above
normal for the remainder of the forecast period. Predominately dry
conditions will occur through the weekend, with some mountain
showers returning early next week along the Continental Divide. -
Moldan

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Record High Temperatures on Wednesday...

Strong warm air advection beneath an anomalously strong upper level
ridge, with H500 heights of 2 to nearly 3 standard deviations above
normal, will help surface temperatures to surge into the mid-50s to
mid-60s across lower elevations of Southwest through North Central
Montana on Wednesday. Numerous locations have a greater than 50%
chance of setting new record high temperatures on Wednesday, with
locations near the surrounding terrain having the highest chances
thanks to gusty downsloping winds.

                    Probability of |   Current
LOCATION              New Record   | Record High
Cut Bank            90% of breaking 55 degrees
Havre               13% of breaking 58 degrees
Great Falls         92% of breaking 57 degrees
Lewistown           58% of breaking 61 degrees
Helena              42% of breaking 55 degrees
Bozeman             52% of breaking 53 degrees
Dillon              85% of breaking 49 degrees


Strong and Gusty Winds on Wednesday...

A moderate to strong pressure gradient orientated along the Rocky
Mountain Front and Island Ranges of Central Montana combined with
mid-level flow of between 35-50kts will help to support one more day
of gusty southwest to west surface winds. NBM probabilities for wind
gusts in excess of 40 mph are in excess of an 80% chance along the
Rocky Mountain Front out to the I-15 corridor across North Central
Montana and between a 20-50% chance along the MT Hwy 200/US Hwy 87
corridor across Central Montana. The probability for gusts in excess
of 60 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front out to Cut Bank generally
ranges from a 40-80% chance, with less than a 5% chance along the MT
Hwy 200/US Hwy 87 corridor. BUFKIT soundings at Cut Bank do support
the potential for mountain wave enhanced wind speeds/gusts, but
confidence in wind speeds/gusts exceeding high wind criteria is low
given veering (indicative of warm air advection) winds with height. -
Moldan


&&

.AVIATION...
13/18Z TAF Period

A moderate northwesterly flow aloft with embedded mid-high level
moisture will continue across the region through the TAF period.
While VFR conditions prevail at all terminals, enough mid-level
moisture is present through early this afternoon across portions of
central and southwest MT for broken cloud ceilings near mountain
tops with a few isolated/light showers possible near KLWT and KBZN.
Mid-level clouds thin later this afternoon through tonight. Gusty
Surface winds affect some north-central/central MT terminals early
this afternoon with winds diminishing this evening. Flow aloft
across the Rockies will continue to support some areas of mountain
wave turbulence. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  38  62  31 /  20   0   0  10
CTB  54  37  63  31 /  10   0   0   0
HLN  57  32  52  27 /  20   0   0   0
BZN  55  29  52  22 /  20   0   0  10
WYS  36  10  38   4 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  51  28  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  53  33  53  27 /  10   0   0  10
LWT  56  35  59  31 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls