Livingston, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

839
FXUS65 KBYZ 060851
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
151 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of heavy snow continue to impact the Beartooth Absaroka
  and Crazy Mountains through this evening.

- Lower elevations will see areas of light rain or snow through
  early Sunday. Greatest snow accumulations (1 to 3 inches) over
  the northeast from Forsyth to Miles City, Baker and Ekalaka.
  Travel conditions could be difficult at times.

- A period of strong southwest to west winds expected along the
  western foothills Monday night through Tuesday morning. Gusts in
  excess of 60 mph are likely.

- Warmer than normal temperatures Sunday through Wednesday.

- Next shot of colder air could arrive next Thursday or Friday,
  but this is highly uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through next Friday...

Very active (but not necessarily wintry) weather continues for the
foreseeable future. Pacific flow will dominate, and it should be
noted that there is a significant fetch of subtropical moisture
with origins a little west of Hawaii. Bottom line is, our western
mountains will continue to be favored for periods of accumulating
snowfall, even after the current Winter Storm Warning ends...and
speaking of which have opted to extend the highlight for the
Beartooth-Absaroka and Crazy Mountains through this evening, with
another 8-15" expected on W-NW aspects.

Satellite imagery shows a moist WNW flow aloft with several
embedded shortwaves: in north central MT, northern ID and along
the Pacific coast. These will keep chances of snow/rain going
through tonight and into early Sunday. Warm advection rain/snow
over west has shifted east of Billings and we are seeing pressure
rises over our west. Winds at Livingston & Nye never materialized
and have cancelled the Wind Advisory for these locations. At
Billings as of 08z, light SSW winds have allowed for rims upslope
fog to form at the airport. This should be short-lived as winds
shift to SW-W before 12z but will need to monitor. Mesoanalysis
shows 700mb warm advection over our east and this is where most
synoptic snow will be focused between now and ~15z. Models have
backed off a bit on snow potential in our northeast but still
looks like a 1-2" snowfall from northern Rosebud through Custer to
Fallon and Carter Counties. Temps are below freezing and anyone
planning to travel should be prepared for wintry conditions at
times. To the west the air mass is more unstable and banded
precip is noted over western mountains/foothills. Red Lodge cams
suggest a couple inches of snow over the past few hours, and no
doubt the mountains are seeing heavy snow at this time. The risk
of light freezing rain east of Billings is low.

Behind this initial wave, the Canadian surface boundary which is
near Forsyth-Ekalaka will backdoor westward today, and in fact the
models have trended a bit faster with this progression (though
maybe too fast as the boundary layer is fairly mixed and this may
slow it a bit). For Billings, expect a wind shift from westerly to
northeast by 18z...after which temps will fall from the 30s to the
20s. Next upstream shortwave may even provide a brief period of
overrunning light snow in the local area this afternoon into the
evening. Forecast soundings show steep mid level lapse rates
remaining and intersecting the DGZ...so this is something to
monitor. By tonight, the boundary will migrate back to the east
and the snow potential will do likewise. Look for another 0.5-1.0"
of snow tonight to early Sunday across our east, while we see
drying and increased downsloping over the west.

Regarding temps, look for 20s east to lower 40s west today,
coldest east of the surface boundary of course. Highs Sunday
should reach the lower 30s east and low-mid 40s west. Gusty SW-W
winds will persist along the western foothills through the weekend
with occasional 30-45 mph gusts.

Confidence continues to increase for a period of strong foothills
winds Monday night through Tuesday morning. Highest gusts will
begin in the gap areas Monday night, then an early morning fropa
will spread strong west winds to Big Timber and Harlowton.
Overall, the chances of seeing 60+ mph gusts at all of these
locations is 90%. 700mb flow of 70-80 knots suggests a good chance
of 70+ mph gusts especially in the gap spots. The probability of
75 mph gusts at Livingston & Nye is 50%. We will likely see 40-55
mph gusts spread east of the foothills on Tuesday. If you have
travel plans please stay alert for a period of dangerous
crosswinds on I-90 and US-191! The winds will be accompanied by
warmer temps, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s and mild
nighttime lows. Another Pacific wave and period of lee side
pressure falls may bring the next period of strong winds on
Wednesday.

In addition to the wind, the very moist Pacific flow will bring
more moderate to heavy mountain snow to west aspects through the
middle of the week. Expect occasional rain showers at lower
elevations.

Any Canadian cold air will be far removed from our forecast area
Monday and Tuesday, and probably through Wednesday. We could see a
push of cold air by Thursday/Friday but this remains highly
uncertain. Cluster analyses are very spread with regard to a lee
side surface high settling in. Note that cold high pressure is
building up in AK/Yukon, so there will be an air mass to
potentially tap into. Any pushes of cold would be accompanied by
overrunning snow. Stay tuned.

JKL

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be common with scattered
showers through the TAF period. Under the heaviest snow showers,
conditions will periodically be reduced to LIFR. Over the east,
including KMLS and KBHK, patchy fog may keep visibilities reduced
to MVFR/IFR when showers are not occuring. Expect mountain
obscuration. Archer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 022/041 030/045 040/050 032/047 028/033 016/031
    5/W 30/N    00/B    15/W    56/W    55/W    43/J
LVM 040 027/041 032/047 042/050 034/050 031/043 023/045
    8/W 40/N    31/N    37/W    67/W    65/W    33/W
HDN 036 018/042 024/046 033/049 028/045 024/033 013/029
    5/W 40/B    10/B    26/W    56/W    65/W    54/J
MLS 026 010/035 022/042 032/046 024/038 019/023 008/021
    8/S 60/B    00/B    34/W    34/W    53/W    33/J
4BQ 034 016/039 024/045 032/049 027/040 022/030 011/026
    6/J 40/B    00/B    14/W    34/W    54/W    33/J
BHK 023 005/033 017/041 027/045 017/036 014/023 003/020
    8/S 66/S    00/N    24/W    23/J    52/J    22/J
SHR 039 019/043 020/048 029/051 026/047 025/036 015/036
    5/W 40/B    00/B    15/W    65/W    65/W    42/J

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect until midnight MST tonight FOR
      ZONES 67-68.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 2 PM MST this
      afternoon FOR ZONE 171.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 2 PM MST this
      afternoon FOR ZONE 198.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings