Hardin, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

529
FXUS65 KBYZ 020955
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
355 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of mountain and foothill snow continue through this
  evening. Several inches of additional snow accumulation can be
  expected (4 to 8" mountains; 1 to 3" foothills), with light
  snow accumulations over the lower elevations. Main impacts will
  be slushy/slick roads and reduced visibility in snow, mainly
  over the mountains and foothills.

- Clipper system brings next shot of lower elevation snow and
  colder temps Thursday night and Friday. Several inches of snow
  are possible for the mountains and foothills.

- High confidence of building high pressure this weekend; expect
  warmer and dry conditions into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Thursday night...

Water vapor satellite showed large upper troughing over the
western US, stretching into the Northern Plains, with an elongated
upper low stretching from the western Dakotas into southern MT. A
band of precipitation has been set up from Harlowton to Billings
to Alzada overnight, moving to the south and west ever so slowly.
Precipitation amounts under the band have range from 0.10 to 0.50
inches, with up to a few inches of snow in places.

The band of precipitation is expected to slowly shift to the
southern mountains and foothills into the morning hours, gradually
decreasing into the afternoon. Unstable northwest flow will keep
rain/snow showers going through the afternoon and into the
evening, before decreasing into tonight. Some of the showers could
be intense, with quick bursts of snow or graupel. Lapse rates this
afternoon and evening in the low to mid levels will be on the
order of 6-8 C/km. Would not be surprised to see a rumble of
thunder. With regards to precipitation amounts, except for the
far northeast, most areas can expect another 0.10 to 0.50 inches
of precipitation. Snow amounts will range from up to a couple
inches over the higher hills in the lower elevations, to a few
inches in the foothills, and 4 to 8 inches of snow in the
mountains through the evening. Greatest snow accumulations can be
expected over grassy surfaces in the lower elevations. Locally
higher totals are also possible due to the showery nature of the
precipitation this afternoon/evening. The current winter weather
highlights remain in effect through the afternoon, and will make
no changes at this time.

After a break in the precipitation for most areas tonight into
Thursday morning, a shortwave and associated cold front are
expected to drop in from the north Thursday afternoon/evening
bringing a period of snow and gusty northerly winds. Precipitation
will start off as rain/snow, switching over to snow Thursday
evening. Currently, up to a few inches of snow are forecast for
the lower elevations, with several inches of snow in the mountains
and foothills. The probability of 2 or more inches of snow ranges
from 30-100% from Billings to Sheridan, and areas down into the
mountains and foothills. Additional winter highlights are
possible.

High temperatures will range from the upper 30s to 40s today and
Thursday, with low temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s tonight
and Thursday night. STP

Friday through Tuesday...

Cold front and upper troughing should be out of the forecast area
by Friday morning. Behind it, upper level ridging will begin to
build into the Mountain West. Due to 850mb temperature anomalies
of -6C to -10C from the mentioned trough, cooler high temperatures
are in the forecast for Friday, in the 30s to around 40F.

Lingering precipitation will diminish from west to east during the
day, with the mountains and foothills having the best chance.
Additional, light snow accumulations are possible for north and
east facing slopes in the mountains. Lower elevations will see
snow become a rain/snow mix through the morning.

There is high confidence in upper level ridging persisting into
next week. High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s Saturday,
50s and 60s Sunday, and 60s to 70F Monday and Tuesday. Dry
conditions are in the forecast during this timeframe as well,
however the deterministic GFS has depicted a wave of energy
breaking through the ridge on Tuesday. The GFS has precipitation
with this wave, but other models show the ridge holding for the
most part, with potential perturbations but no precip coming
through the area.

Matos

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain/snow showers will continue this morning, with impacts ongoing
at KBIL. Low clouds and reduced visibilities have resulted in
MVFR to IFR conditions. Increasing snow showers will begin
impacting KLVM, K6S0, and KSHR by 12z, persisting into midday. Increased
instability will bring the chance for strong and quick snow
showers mainly west of KBIL this afternoon. Flight conditions
under heavier precipitation could be as low as VLIFR throughout
the period. Expect increasing wind gusts for sites east of KBIL
today, 20-30 knots. Mountains will be obscurred through the
forecast period. Matos

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 029/047 026/040 023/053 031/062 035/068 040/065
    8/W 35/R    83/S    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
LVM 041 027/042 024/039 020/050 029/058 035/062 038/059
    7/J 45/S    72/S    00/U    00/U    00/U    12/R
HDN 045 027/050 025/040 021/052 029/061 030/068 037/067
    9/W 35/R    83/S    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B
MLS 043 027/048 025/039 021/052 029/057 030/066 037/066
    3/W 13/R    71/B    00/U    00/B    00/U    10/B
4BQ 040 026/049 027/037 020/047 028/055 029/064 036/065
    6/W 12/R    63/S    10/U    00/B    00/U    01/B
BHK 038 023/046 023/036 017/047 025/050 024/059 033/063
    5/J 12/O    62/S    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 040 022/045 022/037 016/048 025/057 027/064 033/062
    8/J 24/O    76/S    10/U    00/B    00/U    12/R

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening
      FOR ZONES 40-56-63>66-141-171-172-228.
     Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening
      FOR ZONES 67-68.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 3 PM MDT this
      afternoon FOR ZONE 138.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening
      FOR ZONE 198.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 3 PM MDT this
      afternoon FOR ZONE 199.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings