Hardin, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

940
FXUS65 KBYZ 150707
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
107 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Typical August weather continues into next week with
  temperatures in the 80s and 90s.

- Temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday could push 100 degrees.

- Daily low chances of precipitation/thunderstorms through Monday,
  turning drier for midweek.

- This stretch of warm and dry weather will bring an increased
  risk for wildfires. Take care to avoid causing a spark!


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today (10-20%
chance) near and over the southern mountains. Under the upper
level flattened ridge, strong thunderstorm potential will be
suppressed again today. That said, near the Dakota border late
this afternoon into overnight, a low level convergent axis could
produce a few strong to severe storms. Currently, SPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) over Fallon and Carter counties. The
main threat with these storms is wind gusts over 60 mph and hail
up to quarter size.

For Saturday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
(20-40% chance) as upper level flow turns southwesterly and a
better push of moisture enters the region. PWATs will be around
120-150% of normal, highest near the Dakota border. SPC again has
a Marginal Risk over the east Saturday, with wind gusts over 60
mph and hail up to quarter size as the main threats. With the
better moisture, heavy rain will also be a concern.

High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to low 90s today,
increasing to mostly low to mid 90s Saturday, except near the
Dakota border where highs remain in the mid 80s. Archer


Sunday through Thursday...

Cluster analysis suggest high confidence that we will transition
from a somewhat active southwest flow that has persisted much of
the summer to a strong upper ridge over the Rockies and high
plains. Thus, look for a decreasing chance of measurable
precipitation with seasonably warm to hot temperatures (mid 90s
to 100F) as we head into next week.

For Sunday into Monday, southwest flow will still prevail and
bring a daily chance of minor perturbations through our area with
enough moisture in the low levels for isolated to scattered
convection. The threat for severe weather appears to be low at
this time. With increasing heights under the ridge and drier low-
mid levels, the main threat with any storms will be strong gusty
wind. In the far eastern areas, better moisture availability may
allow for a few storms to also produce locally heavy rainfall.
After Monday, the upper ridge builds over the area limiting much
chance of any disturbances tracking over our area, while 700mb
temps approach 15-16C leading to a strong cap over the region. So
any chance of any precipitation after Monday looks slim to none.

There is a chance of a short wave moving over the ridge (ridge
crasher) Wednesday or Thursday next week. This has significant
implications for fire weather conditions and will need to be
monitored. Speaking of fire weather, while Spring and Summer have
been fairly wet so far, this stretch of warm and dry weather will
bring an increased risk for wildfires. Please take care to avoid
causing a spark. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

Slant range visibility will be reduced at times from local and
regional wildfires. Locations near active wildfires could also see
localized reductions to surface visibility, but this is unlikely
to affect any TAF sites. A few weak showers remain possible
through the morning, otherwise, isolated showers and thunderstorms
are most likely after 20Z. Archer
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 063/095 063/092 061/092 062/096 064/097 063/091
    0/U 01/U    11/U    21/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
LVM 091 055/091 054/087 052/089 054/094 056/094 055/090
    1/U 01/B    23/T    41/U    00/U    00/U    01/U
HDN 092 061/095 061/092 059/094 060/098 062/099 062/092
    0/U 10/B    11/U    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 090 065/093 064/092 063/091 064/096 066/097 065/090
    0/U 11/B    12/T    21/U    10/U    10/U    11/U
4BQ 090 066/089 064/091 062/090 063/094 066/096 065/091
    1/U 01/B    22/T    21/U    10/U    10/U    10/U
BHK 086 060/086 061/087 059/087 060/091 062/092 061/088
    2/W 11/B    22/T    21/U    10/U    10/U    11/U
SHR 090 061/090 059/088 056/090 058/094 060/096 060/091
    2/W 11/B    11/B    10/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings