Glendive, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

674
FXUS65 KGGW 142055
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
255 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Subtle shifts in the flow pattern tonight through Friday makes
  for an uncertain precipitation forecast.

- A more robust SW flow aloft sets up Saturday through Sunday for
  strong to possibly severe thunderstorms.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Some morning showers and thunderstorms were poorly represented by
the model data, but have now diminished to a quick-passing
sprinkle.

Tonight through Friday, the 500-mb height field shows a subtle
shift in the orientation of the flow pattern over NE MT. This is
probably the reason for the model precip disagreement evident by
comparing 1) GFS/SREF to 2) HRRR/HiRes models. 1) wants to bring a
decent swath of rain through our southern zones, while 2) want to
bring that rain through our central and northern zones. Next shift
will need to watch satellite and radar trends to see which camp
holds true and then update the forecast once that confidence is
finally allowed to increase.

The more robust SW flow aloft set up stronger by Saturday, which
is expected to bring daily chances for strong thunderstorms
through the weekend.

Mid- to Later next week, the ridge of high pressure re-builds into
our region for a return to hot and dry conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is high on the cooler temperatures today.

Confidence is low on precip timing and placement tonight through
Friday.

Deviated from the NBM for more accurate winds today through
tomorrow.


&&

.AVIATION...

Updated: 2055Z, Thursday afternoon, August 14th.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

DISCUSSION: Colder air mass from the north today has allowed for
stable conditions for the NE MT TAF sites. Some scattered rain
showers are possible toward the end of this TAF cycle, but
confidence is low.

WINDS: NW winds today 10 to 15 knots with gust around 20 knots at
times today. North to NE winds 5 to 10 knots are expected
tonight.



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow