Deer Lodge, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

235
FXUS65 KMSO 241958
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
158 PM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Elevated fire weather conditions (hot, dry, breezy) lasting
   into the weekend region-wide.

-  Wildfire smoke degrading air quality and reducing visibility
   for the next several days and likely well into next week.

Western Montana and north central Idaho will remain under
southwest flow aloft with high pressure to our east and low
pressure to the west. This will maintain hot, dry and breezy
condition through the weekend.

Windy conditions are expected to peak Saturday afternoon, with
widespread southwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph. The combination
of hot, dry, and breezy conditions will cause elevated fire
weather concerns across the region. In addition, choppy conditions
on area lakes should be anticipated for those recreating on area
lakes.

The southwesterly flow will also continue to transport regional
smoke from fires in Oregon and Washington into the region. Air
quality will be diminished at times.

Forecast models are hinting at thunderstorm development as far
north as Butte in southwest Montana and across Lemhi county
Saturday afternoon and evening. The dry low levels of the
atmosphere will set the stage for high based storms capable of
very strong outflow wind gusts, possibly as high as 50 to 60 mph
for localized areas.

The upper level pattern changes very little for early next week,
with hot, dry and smoky conditions continuing. Monsoonal moisture
will remain predominantly suppressed to the south, limiting
thunderstorm potential to occasional, slight chances across Lemhi
County and southwest Montana. Forecast models do hint at high
pressure strengthening over the area by Wednesday/Thursday, which
would allow for further warming of temperatures and possibly for
thicker smoke to settle into valley bottoms

&&

.AVIATION...Breezy southwest to westerly winds will persist this
afternoon through early evening across central Idaho and western
Montana. Wildfire smoke aloft will continue to cause limited
reductions in visibility at times, though visibility should
remain at or above 6SM for the region over the next 24 hours.
Expect wildfire smoke to remain through the weekend into next
week. For KBTM and KSMN, thunderstorm development through 25/0300Z
could produce gusty erratic outflow winds if they cross near the
terminals.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for East
     Beaverhead.

ID...None.
&&

$$