Cut Bank, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

758
FXUS65 KTFX 022009
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
209 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A round of accumulating snow and gusty northerly winds
  arrives tonight into Thursday, mostly impacting the Rocky
  Mountain Front, the Hi-Line, and areas over and adjacent to the
  Little Belt Mountains.

- A warming and drying trend pushes temperatures back above
  average this weekend into early next week.

- a passing disturbance may bring some breeziness and a chance
  for showers heading towards the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

The steadier snows from this morning continues to wind down as
the responsible low pressure system moves away from the region;
however, a weakly unstable boundary layer has been left in its
place and is now initiating scattered rain/snow showers and even a
few rumbles of thunder. This activity looks to persist through
the afternoon before the next shortwave trough brings in the next
opportunity for accumulating snow.

The snow initially picks up along the Rocky Mountain Front and
the Hi-Line tonight and then moves southward into Central/North-
central Montana and eventually Southwest Montana on Thursday.
There will also be a brief period of gusty northerly winds behind
the front, but strong winds are not expected. This system will be
fairly quick moving with snow ending in a north to south fashion
by Thursday evening through the overnight hours.

Ridging aloft slowly builds over the Northern Rockies heading
into the weekend for warming and drying conditions. An overall
mild pattern continues into next week, though passing disturbances
may increase winds and shower chances Tuesday and Wednesday. -RCG

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Accumulating snow tonight and on Thursday...

The shortwave that brings the next round of snow tonight will be
supported by H500/H700 temperatures down to -30/-20C respectively.
Today`s suite of model guidance has picked up on this with a
marked increase in QPF across the board, but especially along the
Rocky Mountain Front, the Hi-Line, and areas near and adjacent to
the Little Belt Mountains. Most of these locations will see
amounts in the 3 to 6 inch range with some higher amounts in the
Marias Pass and Glacier National Park areas. As mentioned above,
there will also be a period of gusty northerly winds that
accompanies the snow. I did expand the winter weather advisories
along the Rocky Mountain Front to include all of the Hi-Line and
the Bears Paw/Little Belt Mountains. Some consideration was given
for further expansion over the plains and parts of the southwest,
but the core of the shortwave`s energy does move off to the east
rather than moving directly south. additionally, most of the
forecast snow amounts were less than 2 inches. Snow ends for most
locations by Tuesday night. - RCG

&&

.AVIATION...
02/18Z TAF Period

Scattered rain and snow showers will continue to move southward
through the CWA this afternoon. Some fog currently in the Bozeman
area should break up a bit by early afternoon. Showers will
diminish early this evening, however, another upper level
disturbance will move southward out of Canada into North Central
MT by late evening, bringing with it another period of low clouds
and light snow as it move east/southward through the CWA on
Thursday. Mountains/passes will be obscured at times across the
CWA through the period. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  26  34  19  43 /  30  90  30  10
CTB  24  33  14  40 /  90  90  10   0
HLN  27  42  22  45 /  10  70  40  10
BZN  23  44  21  39 /  10  60  70  10
WYS  14  40  16  38 /  50  60  60  10
DLN  25  45  23  41 /  30  40  40  10
HVR  25  37  17  40 /  90  90  10   0
LWT  22  34  18  36 /  10  70  40  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Thursday for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western
Toole, and Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High
Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT
Thursday for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Eastern
Toole and Liberty-Hill County-Northern Blaine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to midnight MDT
Thursday night for Little Belt and Highwood Mountains.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls