St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

678
FXUS63 KEAX 072322
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
622 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight.
  Heavy rainfall can be expected with storms in this
  environment leading to rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr.

* Warm and muggy condition are expected to develop Monday, with
  heat and humidity continuing to build Tuesday into
  Wednesday. Heat indices in excess of 100 F are possible-
  likely.

* Active weather pattern continues late week with potential for
  storms returning to the region Wednesday afternoon through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Messy/unsettled pattern with upper trough across central KS. MCV
across eastern KS is expected to lead to additional showers and
thunderstorms across the region this afternoon into tonight as
the disturbance slowly builds east. Broad isentropic lift on the
300- 310K surfaces will assist with the lift creating showers
and thunderstorms across the region. Storms have already begun
to develop across southwestern Missouri as of 19Z, and expect
them to lift north through the afternoon with additional rounds
possible late this afternoon and evening as MCV shifts east and
low level jet increases. Atmosphere primed for heavy rain with
precipitable water values of 1.9-2.0" (near the daily max for
this time of year). Also have deep warm cloud depths leading to
very efficient rainfall. Band of showers which moved through the
region today leading to hydro- planing issues on area roadways
and saw rainfall rates approaching 2"/hr, and expect similar
rainfall rates with storms tonight. Flash flood guidance is
lowered across the area due to recent rainfall, and is generally
in the 1-2"/3 hours and 1.5-3"/6 hrs across much of the area.
Have coordinated a flood watch for portions of central Missouri,
where multiple rounds of rain are most likely. In addition to
the flooding threat, there is a potential severe threat with
1000- 1700 J/kg of CAPE. Wind shear is somewhat weak, but could
see brief spikes in storms or an enhancement this evening as low
level jet increases keeping the atmosphere from decoupling
substantially.

Rainfall threat will gradually shift east through the overnight
into Monday as MCV/Upper trough shifts east. Muggy airmass
will remain however, and upper ridging will lead to warming into
the upper 80s and lower 90s. Soupy airmass remaining across the
region will promote heat indices of 100-105 F Tuesday into
Wednesday. Strongly considered a heat advisory for eastern
KS/western Missouri including the KC metro given the first heat
event of the year, but through coordination, held off for now.
This will likely be a strong consideration for future shifts.

Upper ridge shows some signs of weakening on Wednesday into
Thursday as trough develops in eastern Montana and lifts
northeast. Trailing cold front potentially approaches from the
northwest assisted by additional showers and thunderstorms.
Storm Prediction Center has outlooked northern Missouri for the
potential of severe weather in the vicinity of the front on
Thursday.

The boundary looks to stall across the region before potentially
lifting back north as additional short waves moving across in
zonal flow lead to additional chances of thunderstorms late this
week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Scattered showers and storms are ongoing across eastern KS and
northern MO this evening. The general progression looks to have
the best chances for impacts at the four terminals through the
first few hours of the TAF period before precipitation shifts
east. Confidence in exact locations of showers/storms and
impacts at the terminals is low, so have opted for a PROB30
group rather than a TEMPO.

Once precipitation shifts east, the primary concern becomes MVFR
CIGs which are expected to develop by early morning. IFR CIGs
are possible, particularly at KSTJ, but confidence is not high
enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Low-level clouds
should scatter out through the late morning, leaving behind VFR
conditions through the end of the TAF period. Winds will be
light through the period, beginning out of the southeast before
shifting to southwesterly overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MOZ039-040-044>046-
     054.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Carothers