St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

014
FXUS63 KEAX 222328
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
528 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blustery and cold today, temperatures in the single digits
  overnight with chills near or below zero.

- Warmer temperatures arrive Tuesday, lasting through the end
  of the week.

- Next chance for precipitation Wednesday evening through
  Thursday (40-60%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Upper-level analysis shows a 500-hPa trough covering the eastern
CONUS while ridging is building over the western CONUS. At the
surface, high pressure is blanketing the Great Plains with a
deepening low pressure system moving up the East Coast. Despite
the large distance between these two opposing pressure regimes,
a fairly tight pressure gradient is situated between them which
has led to northwesterly winds gusting to 20-30 mph across the
area this afternoon. The CAA associated with this northerly flow
is working to hold high temperatures to the upper 20s and lower
30s this afternoon despite sunny skies. The high pressure will
slide eastward this evening, easing the pressure gradient over
the area and causing winds to ease. Clear skies and light winds
overnight will allow temperatures to plummet into the single
digits and low 10s by early Monday morning with wind chills near
or below zero across the area. Light northerly flow will
continue into Monday and high temperatures will once again be
confined to the 30s.

The high pressure will drift off to the east/southeast late
Monday which will incite a wind shift to southerly and set up a
WAA regime into Tuesday. Aloft, the ridge axis will shift
slightly east, which will cause height rises over the area.
These two factors will allow temperatures to climb into 50s and
60s where they will persist for the next few days.

The next chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday evening into
Thursday morning as a shortwave propagates across the Northern
Plains. Model guidance has come into better agreement over the
past forecast cycle regarding the timing and track of the
system, although some discrepancies remain. The general trend at
this point is for the shortwave to track across the area
Wednesday night with the associated surface low passing to the
north. Despite the system staying north of the area, there
should still be enough forcing for some precipitation to fall
overnight Wednesday night into Thursday with NBM probabilities
showing a 40-60% chance for precipitation across the area.
While most areas should only see rain, some snow may mix across
the northern half of the area given that the system will be
moving through during the overnight hours when diurnal heating
is at a minimum with lows expected to be in the upper 20s and
lower 30s. NBM probabilities show a 10-15% chance of snowfall
occurring across northern MO with the system. However, if the
system speeds up or slows down and the precipitation falls
primarily during the daytime hours, then the chances for snow
would be essentially eliminated.

After this system exits to the east, dry conditions and above
normal temperatures will return through the end of the week
before model guidance diverges into the weekend. The GEFS keep
the above normal temperatures and stays dry while the ECMWF
ensemble brings in a much cooler pattern and even attempts to
produce some light snow over the weekend. However, given the
wide variety of solutions, confidence at this range is extremely
low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Wind gusts around 20kts possible over the next two hours but
then will subside as the evening progresses. High pressure will
keep skies clear and conditions VFR through the 00z TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Carothers
AVIATION...Krull