St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

371
FXUS63 KEAX 022345
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
645 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The pattern remains active with daily chances for rain through
  Monday

- Rain/snow mix possible Saturday night into Sunday morning

- Near-freezing morning temperatures expected Sunday through
  Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A surface front that brought us a few rounds of significant severe
weather last night and this morning will continue its track to the
east. Westerly winds on the backside of the front will allow us to
warm up to the 60s-70s. The associated surface low to north over IA
has yielded a strengthened pressure gradient resulting in breezy
conditions expected to last through the evening. The HRRR hints at
possible spotty, elevated showers north of I-70 after sunset,
however decided to leave the forecast dry due to low confidence.

A mid to upper level trough in the western US will keep our flow
aloft out of the southwest. Multiple shortwaves are expected to
eject out of this system giving us multiple chances for rain through
Monday. Thursday evening a surface low tracks out of TX to the
northeast towards the area resulting in a chance for showers across
the area with the brunt of the precipitation staying south of I-70.
Weak CAPE and stable lapse rates suggest thunderstorms are less
likely. Strong bulk shear values ranging from 60-80 kts suggest any
potential convective development may be sheared apart resulting in
rather pulsey, short-lived convection. Showers are expected to move
out of the area early Friday morning. Another wave moves through
Friday afternoon resulting in another round of precipitation.
Thunderstorms again do not look promising even for the afternoon
given the weak thermodynamic profiles.

A surface high to the northwest begins to usher in a cold air mass
early Saturday morning as winds shift to the north. This will result
in near or just below freezing low temperatures Sunday through
Tuesday mornings. Another wave moves through giving us a potential
for a light rain/snow mix early Sunday morning. The NBM gives a 15%-
30% chance for a tenth of an inch of snow mainly for western MO.
Chances reduce to 15% when the accumulations are raised to half an
inch. Better chances for accumulations look to remain farther west
over central and eastern KS. The mid to upper level trough finally
rejoins the flow with the help of a ridge on Sunday. Even though
this wave moves out, another trough to the northeast delivers
rain/snow chances again, but deterministic models keep precip just
to the northeast of the area for Monday. The next chance for precip
comes Wednesday with a dry second half of the week following after
as mid to upper level ridging builds into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

After gusty conditions this afternoon and early evening, lighter
winds will prevail for this TAF period. Wind will ease
around/under 5 kts overnight, going variable at times, while
winds shift northerly and eventually southeasterly by tomorrow
afternoon. Periods of BKN/OVC cloud cover throughout, including
lowering by the end of the period, but VFR should prevail.
Just beyond this TAF period, MVFR ceilings may sneak in from
the south, especially for the southern two if not three TAF
sites KIXD/KMKC/KMCI.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Curtis