Independence, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 3 Miles S Sugar Creek MO
National Weather Service Forecast for:
3 Miles S Sugar Creek MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO |
Updated: 7:12 pm CDT Jul 26, 2025 |
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Tonight
 Partly Cloudy
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Sunday
 Mostly Sunny
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Sunday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Monday
 Sunny
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Monday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Tuesday
 Sunny
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Tuesday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Wednesday
 Chance T-storms
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Wednesday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Lo 75 °F |
Hi 91 °F |
Lo 77 °F |
Hi 95 °F |
Lo 76 °F |
Hi 96 °F |
Lo 74 °F |
Hi 92 °F |
Lo 70 °F |
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Heat Advisory
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Tonight
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind 3 to 6 mph. |
Sunday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 106. South southwest wind 6 to 9 mph. |
Sunday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 77. South wind around 7 mph. |
Monday
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Sunny, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 105. South southwest wind around 7 mph. |
Monday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 76. South wind 3 to 5 mph. |
Tuesday
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Sunny, with a high near 96. |
Tuesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 74. |
Wednesday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Wednesday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Thursday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Thursday Night
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. |
Friday
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Partly sunny, with a high near 77. |
Friday Night
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Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. |
Saturday
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Partly sunny, with a high near 78. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 3 Miles S Sugar Creek MO.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
211
FXUS63 KEAX 262316
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon and
potentially through overnight hours.
- Individual cells will produce very heavy rainfall that may
lead to localized excessive runoff.
- Widespread, dangerous flash flooding is not anticipated.
* Heat index values near 105 along and south of Highway today.
* Dangerous heat builds through the entire area Sunday through
Wednesday.
- Highest heat index values in the 105 to 110 range look likely.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
Isolated to scattered storms have develop in the afternoon heat and
humidity. There is no real discernible boundary in the area to focus
storms, rather it seems like areas hit convective temperatures given
the very humid conditions. However, storms will produce outflow
boundaries and that will lead to subsequent storms so have
broadbrushed chance PoPs in for our eastern half to two-thirds of
the forecast areas, mainly east of I-35. The chances for severe
weather look low but with moderate to strong CAPE and a very moist
profile, could see some strong winds at the surface. Otherwise, with
precipitable water values still in excess of 2", localized very
heavy rainfall is expected. With more isolated to scattered coverage
of storms, the threat of widespread flash flooding looks low.
But FFG values are very low due to the recent widespread
rainfall, and that could result in localized excessive runoff/
flooding. Storms may linger into the evening and overnight hours
but with no discernible boundary to focus anything, it may be
more isolated to scattered in nature as the low-level jet
restrengthens and pumps moisture northward. And again, because
of the lack of focus, the threat of more widespread flash
flooding is low. However, localized excessive rainfall will
continue to be a concern given the environment.
Heat index values along and south of Highway 50 are near or
just above heat advisory levels but with storms developing, see
no need to adjust the heat advisory for today. For Sunday into
the first half of the next week, the broad upper ridge that has
been over the southern US, centered over the Southeast, will
consolidate and build into the central US. With the ridge
building/ strengthening into the area, the storm track should be
pushed north of the area. So it seems more likely we`ll see
dangerous heat develop with little or no chance of being
interrupted by cloud debris or convection from any MCS that
moves into the area. Though can`t completely rule out some
afternoon storms, even that seems unlikely given increasing mid-
level temperatures. Regarding our heat advisory for Sunday
through Tuesday, plan to keep that going as is with this
forecast. It`s possible, as confidence increases in actually
hitting criteria for extreme heat (110 heat index for two days
and overnight lows 75 or higher -or- 4 days of heat advisory
criteria). Meeting one of those thresholds seems more likely
Monday into Tuesday. For Wednesday, the ridge breaks down some
leading to the potential for storm to move back into northern
MO. So if the heat headlines need to be extended into Wednesday,
the most likely area would be along and south of the Missouri
River. For the later half of the week, the upper ridge gets
shunted well south and cooler air settle into the area from the
north. This may also lead to increased chances for
precipitation, especially into Thursday, before
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025
VFR conditions are very likely (>85%) through the forecast.
There are small chances (<15%) of some lower ceilings developing
tonight. These would be in the MVFR range if they would develop.
Otherwise, light winds overnight increase from the south-
southwest to around 12kts tomorrow morning and persist through
the day.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
054.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ033-039-040-
043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-
057-060-102>105.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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