Independence, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

211
FXUS63 KEAX 262316
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon and
  potentially through overnight hours.
    - Individual cells will produce very heavy rainfall that may
      lead to localized excessive runoff.
    - Widespread, dangerous flash flooding is not anticipated.

* Heat index values near 105 along and south of Highway today.

* Dangerous heat builds through the entire area Sunday through
  Wednesday.
    - Highest heat index values in the 105 to 110 range look likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Isolated to scattered storms have develop in the afternoon heat and
humidity. There is no real discernible boundary in the area to focus
storms, rather it seems like areas hit convective temperatures given
the very humid conditions. However, storms will produce outflow
boundaries and that will lead to subsequent storms so have
broadbrushed chance PoPs in for our eastern half to two-thirds of
the forecast areas, mainly east of I-35. The chances for severe
weather look low but with moderate to strong CAPE and a very moist
profile, could see some strong winds at the surface. Otherwise, with
precipitable water values still in excess of 2", localized very
heavy rainfall is expected. With more isolated to scattered coverage
of storms, the threat of widespread flash flooding looks low.
But FFG values are very low due to the recent widespread
rainfall, and that could result in localized excessive runoff/
flooding. Storms may linger into the evening and overnight hours
but with no discernible boundary to focus anything, it may be
more isolated to scattered in nature as the low-level jet
restrengthens and pumps moisture northward. And again, because
of the lack of focus, the threat of more widespread flash
flooding is low. However, localized excessive rainfall will
continue to be a concern given the environment.

Heat index values along and south of Highway 50 are near or
just above heat advisory levels but with storms developing, see
no need to adjust the heat advisory for today. For Sunday into
the first half of the next week, the broad upper ridge that has
been over the southern US, centered over the Southeast, will
consolidate and build into the central US. With the ridge
building/ strengthening into the area, the storm track should be
pushed north of the area. So it seems more likely we`ll see
dangerous heat develop with little or no chance of being
interrupted by cloud debris or convection from any MCS that
moves into the area. Though can`t completely rule out some
afternoon storms, even that seems unlikely given increasing mid-
level temperatures. Regarding our heat advisory for Sunday
through Tuesday, plan to keep that going as is with this
forecast. It`s possible, as confidence increases in actually
hitting criteria for extreme heat (110 heat index for two days
and overnight lows 75 or higher -or- 4 days of heat advisory
criteria). Meeting one of those thresholds seems more likely
Monday into Tuesday. For Wednesday, the ridge breaks down some
leading to the potential for storm to move back into northern
MO. So if the heat headlines need to be extended into Wednesday,
the most likely area would be along and south of the Missouri
River. For the later half of the week, the upper ridge gets
shunted well south and cooler air settle into the area from the
north. This may also lead to increased chances for
precipitation, especially into Thursday, before

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions are very likely (>85%) through the forecast.
There are small chances (<15%) of some lower ceilings developing
tonight. These would be in the MVFR range if they would develop.
Otherwise, light winds overnight increase from the south-
southwest to around 12kts tomorrow morning and persist through
the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
     054.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ033-039-040-
     043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-
     057-060-102>105.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB