Blue Springs, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

550
FXUS63 KEAX 190745
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
245 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog reducing visibility to a quarter mile is
  possible through mid-morning today.

- Increasing confidence in our first heat event of the season
  that will bring heat index values to 100-105F on Friday and
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Early this morning a surface ridge of high pressure is building into
the area from the central Plains. This is acting to clear skies out
and providing light winds. These conditions will allow patchy dense
fog to develop this morning particularly in areas that received
precipitation last night. This fog will look to burn off by mid-
morning. Surface high pressure will remain in control over the area
today as a upper level ridge of high pressure over the southwestern
CONUS begins to build northeastward today. This will provide height
rises across the region and allow high to rise into the mid 80s to
near 90. Friday, the upper level ridge axis will move directly
overhead while seasonably strong WAA will get underway in the wake
of the departing surface high pressure. This will introduce he first
dangerous heat of the season with highs in the low to mid 90s and,
factoring dewpoints in the low to mid 70s heat index values will
range from 100-107F. The pattern, will remain unchanged Saturday
will the upper ridge axis firmly in place and continued WAA. This
will allow highs to remain in the low to mid 90s with heat indices
remaining in the 100-105F range. Sunday, the upper level ridge
begins to slide eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys
however, the area will stay under its influence and Strong WAA will
continue keeping highs in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values may
be slightly "cooler" on Sunday with slightly less humid conditions
but they will still achieve the 97-103F. That being said, heat
products will most likely be needed for at least Friday and Saturday
and possibly Sunday.

By Monday, the upper level ridge axis moves into the mid-Atlantic
states leaving the local area under southwesterly flow aloft. Monday
a upper level trough will dig into the western Rockies. Several lead
shortwaves ahead of this feature Monday will attempt to sag a cold
front towards the area. This sagging front will find it difficult to
push southeastward into the ridge however storm chances (30-50%) may
be possible across the northern CWA Monday. Tuesday into Wednesday,
the upper level ridge retrogrades back westward into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. This will leave the local area on the western
periphery of the upper ridge with models indicating several
shortwaves rounding the ridge into the area which may produce
additional rounds of storms along the stalled cold front. As such
slight chance to chance POPs are forecasted for the forecast area
Tuesday and Wednesday with the highest PoPs across northeastern
Kansas and northern Missouri nearest the analyzed location of the
surface front at that time. Highs Monday will still remain in the
low to mid 90s with addition cloud cover expected to lower highs
Tuesday into the lower 90s and into the upper 80s to lower 90s by
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Patchy - areas of fog are expected to develop tonight with
lingering near surface moisture from the evening showers. Fog is
expected to burn off shortly after sunrise, leading to clear
skies and light southwest winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ028-029-037.
KS...Air Quality Alert from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BT