Blue Springs, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

162
FXUS63 KEAX 130508
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1108 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers with embedded thunderstorms expected Wednesday morning.
Rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.5" expected, heaviest across northwest
Missouri.

- Warming trend expected late this week peaking on Saturday with
breezy southerly winds.

- Active weather pattern early next week leading to additional
rainfall Monday into Tuesday, with more seasonal temperatures
returning to the region mid-week next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Surface high pressure centered over the the Great Lakes region is
expected to move east as trough of low pressure across the inter-
mountain west shifts east into the plains.  High level clouds will be
on the increase tonight, and with the stronger winds tonight,
temperatures will remain 10-15 degrees above normal.

Isentropic lift steadily increases through the night, but limited
moisture will keep conditions mainly dry through the overnight.
Showers, with a few embedded rumbles of thunder, are expected to
increase in coverage after 10Z, spreading east through the morning
hours.  Rain may taper to a drizzle tomorrow afternoon as
atmospheric column dries out aloft but low level saturation and lift
linger into the afternoon.  Stratus and lingering light
precipitation will keep diurnal warming muted especially across
northern Missouri. Gradual clearing and decreasing pressure gradient
will lead to improving radiative conditions from west to east and
coolest conditions across eastern Kansas into far western Missouri.

A warming trend is expected Thursday Saturday as upper level ridge
builds into the region and the jet stream bubbles north.

Forecast for the early portions of next week remains interesting as
deep trough builds into the west coast on Friday and becomes
stretched from southwest to northeast as 150+ knot jet streak
developing on the front site of the upper trough. This eventually
separates the wave with one portion lifting into the western Great
Lakes region on Sunday and a closed low developing across the four
corners region.  Colder air is expected to wrap around the northern
wave, but may not reach the region before the influence of the
southern wave begins.  As this wave lifts northeast, could see a
prolonged period of precipitation across the region. Grand ensemble
is predicting a 15-25% chance of precipitation amounts exceeding 1"
Monday into Tuesday.  Cooler, more seasonable temperatures wrap back
into the region on the backside of the system, with highs in the 50s
and lows near freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1108 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Ovc high clouds are expected thru 11Z when cigs around 10kft
will move into the TAF sites. Cigs are expected to drop to 6kft
btn 12Z-13Z as lgt shra mov into the terminals. Btn 15Z-19Z cigs
will drop to low MVFR btn 1-2kft or even IFR (at STJ) with mod
rain reducing vis to 3-5SM. Aft 19Z pcpn will come to an end
however MVFR cigs btn 2-3kft are expected to persist thru
23Z-00Z before lifting back to VFR conds with ovc cigs btn
3-4kft. Winds will be out of SE to SSE btn 10-15kts thru 19Z
when winds will veer to the SW around 10kts. A cold front is
fcst to move thru the TAF sites btn 23Z-00Z which will shift
winds to the WNW btn 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...73