Tupelo, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

289
FXUS64 KMEG 110945
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
445 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 443 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

- Dry conditions will continue today into the first half of
  Thursday, with seasonal high temperatures.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return Thursday
  afternoon, mainly to the south and west of Memphis. Increasing
  humidity will support more widespread showers and thunderstorms
  on Friday and this weekend. At this time, the chances for
  severe thunderstorms is low.

- Hot and humid conditions will likely develop next week, with
  scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms continuing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A typical early summer upper air pattern appears to be settling
in over North America. The northern branch of the upper jet will
remain over the northern tier states the next two days, as a
southern branch cut-off low lifts slowly northeast across the
southern Great Plains. This upper low will continue northeast,
arriving to the Ozarks on Friday. Global models often overestimate
rain coverage in advance of slow-moving cut-off lows. With a
slight delay in low level moisture return and initial shortwave
ridging aloft, best rain chances Thursday afternoon will be to the
south and west of Memphis. Lower to mid 70s dewpoints spread
through all the Midsouth on Friday. With weak upper level
diffluence, Friday will likely bring increased coverage of
showers and thunderstorms.

The remnants of the upper low will stall over the OH and lower MS
River Valleys this weekend. The presence of this trough axis and
PWAT values in excess of 2 inches will support continued showers
and thunderstorm. With weak deep layer shear, coverage will favor
the daytime hours, aided by differential heating and mixed-layer
CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Other that a few microbursts, the severe
potential will remain limited through the weekend.

The weak upper trough over the Midsouth will weaken early next
week, replaced by weak zonal flow. Global models differ on
upstream height falls along the west coast and the resulting
downstream ridging over the central CONUS. In any case, daytime
temperatures will tick up a few degrees over the Midsouth, with
lower 90s probable by the middle of next week. With dewpoints in
the mid 70s, heat indices appear set to reach or exceed 100 in
the early to middle part of next week.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

VFR and light wind tonight, becoming SE tomorrow.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS