Starkville, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

940
FXUS64 KJAN 022356 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
656 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This Evening...

A recently issued Tornado Watch includes Bolivar County along with
much of north MS. The severe threat in our northwest is projected
to be greatest just outside the CWA. That being said, there remains
a non-zero chance of the front/line stalling through some of our
more northwestern counties (roughly speaking these will be:
Ashley & Chicot AR, Bolivar & Sunflower MS). It is with this
chance in mind that the severe weather threat remains highlighted
across various NWS Jackson products. Should the front limp its way
into the CWA, any thunderstorms that develop along it could be
severe. Those cells will summarily exit the region to the
northeast, causing any major impacts to be short-lived. This
threat exists from early evening through around midnight tonight.

Thursday through Friday...

The forecast remains relatively unchanged for Thursday and Friday:
Should the front stall where we are projecting (just to the north
of the CWA), a renewed bout of severe weather is expected along it
after sunrise. Daytime heating will reinvigorate latent frontal
instability, sparking a continuation of Wednesday`s weather in
terms of coverage. The front may amble southward just enough to
lie between Cleveland and Greenville. Any cells that develop in
our area will quickly exit within an hour or two to the northeast.
Severe weather parameters are expected to be tempered compared to
today, with severe cells being less widespread and max winds/hail
projected to top out at 60mph and quarter size respectively.
Thunderstorm activity will reach a crescendo during the mid
afternoon hours and wane with the sun.

This Weekend...

A brief retrograding of the much discussed stationary front early
Saturday morning will portend a strengthening and focusing of latent
instability. An upper level trough ejecting out of Oklahoma will
draw the front northward, while reinforcing said front with much
more favorable atmospheric dynamics. A surface low, having developed
upstream in response to these dynamics, will ensnare the stationary
front and drag it through the area by Sunday morning. As the front
clears the area, expect widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
activity along and behind.

The primary challenge remains in cementing the timing, which
remains dependent on upstream features that have yet to
materialize, of frontal passage this weekend. For the time being
we are confident in a time frame between Saturday afternoon and
noon Sunday.

At the present moment we are communicating an Enhanced (3/5) Severe
Storm Threat, given the ever-growing convergence of model guidance
and the favorable parameters which they are displaying; expect an
adjustment upwards as we draw nearer this weekend. Addressing those
parameters: A wealth of moisture will be on tap as we continue to
see sturdy southerly winds bringing with it dewpoints and
temperatures that are several degrees above seasonal norms, CAPE
around 2000 J/kg, low and mid level height drops of 10-15 dm/24
hours, textbook directional shear with SRH at over 300.

Next Week...

A welcome reprieve is in store for next week. Cooler and drier
conditions will build in behind this system`s cold front. Barring
a significant cool-off, no significant weather is expect through
mid-week next week. Speaking of that cool-off, temperatures will
shift from being about 10-15 degrees warmer than normal to end
this week to about 10 degrees cooler than normal to start the new
week. Dust off those hoodies, overnight lows will range from the
upper 30s through the mid 40s next week. Highs will slowly rebound
through the week from the low 60s Monday afternoon, mid 60s
Tuesday, and upper 60s Wednesday./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR conditions at the immediate start of the TAF period, but
lowering scattered to broken deck should spread MVFR ceilings from
south to north by 06Z Thursday. Gusty winds will continue out of
the south through the period, and low-level wind shear will be an
issue at most sites through around 04Z-06Z as winds off the
surface gradually weaken. Overnight stratus should mix and lift by
18Z Thursday. Confidence in any SHRA or TSRA impacts to a TAF site
were too low to mention at this time. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  88  72  87 /   0   0  10  40
Meridian      71  86  69  87 /  10  10   0  30
Vicksburg     73  90  73  88 /  10  10  10  30
Hattiesburg   72  87  71  86 /   0  10   0  30
Natchez       72  88  73  88 /   0   0   0  30
Greenville    69  85  71  86 /  60  60  40  50
Greenwood     72  88  72  87 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

NF/OAJ