Petal, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

339
FXUS64 KJAN 221124 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
524 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Today and Tonight: This morning will be the coldest of the next
seven mornings but colder than normal temperatures will continue
today and tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a >1032mb high
centered over the Great lakes region and ridging southwest back
across the lower Mississippi valley. This surface high will remain
dominant over our region but continue shifting east though tonight.
Per the most recent satellite imagery northwest flow aloft continued
over our region but our winds aloft will gradually back to the
southwest by Monday morning downstream of a shortwave trough that
will be moving over the southern Plains. Despite near full
insolation today, continued caa will hold temperatures in the low to
mid 50s at most locations. As the large surface high becomes
centered over the mid Atlantic seaboard tonight, the resulting light
return flow combined with the southwest flow aloft will help hold
temperatures above freezing in our west while coldest temperatures
in our northeast will bottom out in the upper 20s. /22/

Monday through Christmas...

Christmas week expect temperatures to rebound into far above
seasonal norms with highs in the mid 60s for areas north of I-20,
and low 70s to the south. Our lows will take a bit longer to recover
as our Gulf flow is not particularly robust and remains more east-
southeasterly until late next week. Good news is that all
counties/parishes will see lows above freezing, and reach low 50s by
Christmas night/Thursday morning. Rain and thunderstorms will begin
to make their way into the area the afternoon of Christmas Eve from
the northwest and affect the entire CWA by Christmas morning. This
is in response to southerly moisture on tap combined with 500mb
height falls out ahead of a minor trough set to eject slowly from
east Texas Christmas morning.

Through the Holiday Weekend...

This minor trough will be absorbed into a much more substantial
trough from central Texas throughout the remainder of the week,
which will elicit widespread ascent out ahead of it; as significant
height falls take hold. Continued surface moisture that becomes more
sturdy as the week progresses, in conjunction with this
aforementioned major trough will culminate in effectively continuous
rainfall for the remainder of the week/weekend, along with embedded
thunderstorm activity.

A Note on Confidence...

Model resolutions with this system have continued to come into focus
providing more confidence in the overall forecast for Christmas
onwards. Rain totals (both 24hr and 7 day averages) for this
rainfall event remain within seasonal norms, so there is no
expectation of signaling any sort of heavy rain threat. As always
with systems that have had divergent resolutions we can not totally
rule out the possibility for heavy rain nor a small chance for more
dynamically supported embedded convective activity that could
produce local, isolated, strong winds.

In Summary...

The holiday week looks to be a wet and dreary one. If there are any
outdoor plans that don`t involve frolicking in the rain, it would be
advisable to have a backup plan. Continue to monitor the latest
products for possible active weather especially for Friday and
Saturday./OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF
period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       54  33  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      53  29  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     55  33  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   56  31  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       57  35  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    49  33  58  40 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     52  34  60  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/OAJ/22