Pearl, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

406
FXUS64 KJAN 021459 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
959 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The forecast discussion below still holds true, please direct
your attention towards it for an analysis of the dynamics and
overall forecast for today./OAJ/


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Today and Tonight:

The threat for severe thunderstorms is the primary concern for our
forecast area today. Portions of southeast Arkansas and northwest
Mississippi have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) for
severe thunderstorms this afternoon into evening due to the threat
for significant severe weather with storms that will develop in that
region. Afternoon heating driven by high pressure to our southeast
will push MLCAPE values into the 2500-3500 J/kg range through the
Delta. This fuel for storms will support robust updrafts where
convection develops, and deep-layer wind shear of 40-60 kts should
sustain those updrafts and permit supercell thunderstorms to
develop. The greatest threat will be north and west of our forecast
area, but some guidance suggests storms could initiate and move
northeast across that corner of our CWA through the evening hours.
With shear being oriented parallel to the stalled frontal boundary
in the region, storm activity should grow upscale with a few bowing
line segments or clusters possible. Again, the primary threat is to
our north and west, but the increased instability, shear, and
helicity will support the messaging of strong or long-tracked
tornadoes in the broader region outlooked by the Storm Prediction
Center today. Residents and interests especially in southeast
Arkansas and northwest Mississippi should pay attention to
developments and updates in the forecast through today should storms
become more likely. Golf ball or larger size hail, damaging wind
gusts in excess of 70 mph, and tornadoes will be possible with the
strongest storms this evening.

In addition to this severe weather threat, there is good agreement
among guidance that breezy winds across our forecast area will see
sustained speeds and gusts around our Wind Advisory thresholds. So
the Wind Advisory will remain in place apart from the severe storms
threat.

Thursday through Tuesday:

Pooled moisture and instability south of the stalled front will
continue to fuel daily thunderstorm chances mainly to our north and
west through Friday, with Marginal (level 1 of 5) to Slight (level 2
of 5) Risks for severe thunderstorms covering northern and western
portions of our forecast area on Thursday, and a Marginal (level 1
of 5) Risk isolated severe storms on Friday.

Then in a crescendo to the severe threats for this week, an upper-
level storm system pushing east from the Southern Rockies into the
Southern Mississippi River Valley will bring a more expansive severe
weather threat with a progressive low pressure system and associated
cold front. The instability and dynamics of the environment will
favor threats for wind and tornadoes with both a squall line threat
along the front and supercells ahead of it. It`s anticipated that
the Risk level for severe thunderstorms will be adjusted as
confidence increases for timing of this sytem`s passage through the
region. Be sure to stay updated with the forecast through the
remainder of this week.

Cooler and drier conditions will arrive behind this system`s cold
front. Temps will shift from being about 10-15 degrees warm than
normal to end this week to about 10 degrees cooler than normal to
start the new week. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Low stratus across the area will continue to result in MVFR
flight categories prevailing at area TAF sites through much of the
morning. Stratus will erode during the late morning, with a
return to VFR categories expected this afternoon. However, flight
categories will again return to MVFR status this evening into
tonight as low stratus again develops, with some showers and
storms possible across mainly the Delta region late today. Winds
will be gusty from the south by late morning, sustained around 20
knots, while gusting between 30-40 knots at times. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  72  88  72 /  10  10  10  10
Meridian      87  69  87  70 /  10   0  10  10
Vicksburg     87  72  89  73 /  20  10  20  10
Hattiesburg   87  70  87  70 /  20   0  10  10
Natchez       87  72  88  73 /  10   0  10  10
Greenville    85  70  85  70 /  50  60  60  50
Greenwood     86  72  87  72 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

OAJ/NF/19