Horn Lake, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

771
FXUS64 KMEG 221100
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
500 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Dry conditions continue through Monday, with temperatures slowly
climbing between now and the remainder of the week. Shower chances
return by Tuesday afternoon, with multiple waves of precipitation
through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Quiet and a rather chilly morning unfolding across the Mid-South,
with clear skies and temperatures generally in the mid to upper
20s. Little to no fog development has been seen up until this
point, with dew point depressions generally remaining above a few
degrees. Could see these values decrease as we approach sunrise,
so still won`t rule out some patchy fog in more fog prone areas.
Any fog that develops will quickly mix out following sunrise.

A weak upper-level ridge will continue to drift eastward today,
aiding to keep dry conditions across the Mid-South with a general
warming trend today and tomorrow. High temperatures today will
remain in the mid 40s to low 50s, just a bit warmer than
yesterday, with high temperatures tomorrow climbing back into the
50s areawide. Weak ridge pattern will quickly give way to an
approaching trough by Tuesday, with an influx of moisture
returning to the region. Models have come to a better agreement on
the timing of this particular system, with the bulk of any
precipitation moving through Tuesday evening into Christmas
morning. Highest rainfall amounts will likely remain across the
western half of the Mid-South, with amounts varying from 0.5" to
1.5". Those closer to the TN River will likely see amounts closer
to 0.25". Instability will be lacking as this boundary pushes
through, with thunderstorm chances remaining below 15%.

Beyond Wednesday, model differences continue with guidance
struggling to resolve an upper-level trough as it exits the Rocky
Mountains. No matter the solution, this will likely spell a wetter
and warmer weather pattern across the Mid-South to finish the week
and into the weekend. Latest guidance does have a slight uptick in
QPF amounts across the Mid-South, approaching 2 inches in some
locations, and keeps any severe weather threat out of the area as
well. With this being said, there is low confidence in the
forecast by the end of the week given the stark guidance
differences and will be something to watch over the next few
forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

No significant aviation concerns through the period. High
pressure, currently sitting directly over the region, will
continue to produce calm conditions over the next 24 hours.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JAB