Brookhaven, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

488
FXUS64 KJAN 120153 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
853 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Enough instability and humidity in place across the region has
lead to a sustained push of showers and storms on old outflow
boundaries this evening. Made some slight adjustments to boost
POPs into the midnight timeframe tonight, but overall expect line
crossing the Mississippi River to steadily lose its current
momentum and intensity. Sporadic strong wind gusts and areas of
heavy rain with stronger storms remain the threats with these
storms. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Through Thursday night: As previously mentioned, a significant
upper level pattern change is underway with subtropical ridging
expected to be more prominent. The weaker upper level winds and
steering flow will allow a cut-off low to our west to meander
slowly for a few days and gradually approach the lower/mid MS
Valley. This will keep our area in persistent moist south to
southwesterly flow, which will support keeping relatively high
rain chances through most of the forecast.

In the near term, the convective outflow boundary and associated
showers/storms will approach southwest portions of the forecast area
this evening...potentially bringing some gusty winds to northeast LA
and southwest MS, then the convective intensity should wane during
the early evening as storms attempt to move across the MS River. For
Thursday, the parameters driving today`s convection will be farther
east and more squarely over our area resulting in a marginal risk
for getting severe wind gusts, especially during the late afternoon
to early evening. Low level flow We have issued a graphicast that
corresponds with SPC`s day two outlook for a marginal risk, and
some adjustments to the area may be required. With boundary
interactions and decent low level flow by June standards, the
development of a weak brief tornado can`t be ruled out. /EC/

Friday through Tuesday night:

The main message for the end of this week into early next week is
hot and humid with summery chances for mainly afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms. In one word - "June."

Temperatures should be seasonable - highs around 90 and lows in
the lower 70s. The upper-level weather pattern will feature
troughing generally over our region, as a weakness persists
beneath ridge centers over the Desert Southwest and off the
Southeast U.S. coastline through the 7-day time frame. Southerly
low-level flow around the Bermuda High will keep humidity levels
around 70% through afternoon hours, and drippy overnight. A closed
low lifting from the Southern High Plains toward Missouri by
Saturday will be the instigating feature for anything more
organized as far as thunderstorm potential over the next few days.
But the combination of heat and humidity and flow in the region
will generally support 60-70% rain chances across the forecast
area each afternoon.

With the humidity arriving from the south, falling from above, and
simmering out of the ground, 100+ heat index values should become
increasingly common this weekend into early next week. Limited to
Elevated heat stress graphics may be needed over the next few days,
but it`s always worth keeping in mind that summer in the South is a
time to stay hydrated, wear comfortable and cool clothing, and check
on family and neighbors who may need cool places to stay during hot
afternoons and muggy nights. /NF/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 850 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Brief periods of reduced ceilings and visibility with showers and
thunderstorms through the period are the main concern, as well as
potentially gusty and variable winds near storms. Some patchy BR
or low stratus may also develop near a few sites around 12Z
Thursday as rain ends and winds go calmer. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  91  73  90 /  20  70  20  60
Meridian      70  91  71  90 /  20  60  30  60
Vicksburg     72  91  73  91 /  40  70  30  50
Hattiesburg   73  92  74  91 /  30  70  20  70
Natchez       72  89  73  90 /  50  70  20  60
Greenville    72  89  73  88 /  30  80  50  60
Greenwood     72  91  73  90 /  10  70  40  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/NF