Owatonna, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

542
FXUS63 KMPX 230004
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
604 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures and weak disturbances with low
  predictability are in store through Saturday, then a shot of
  colder air for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

A mild afternoon is well underway with filtered sunshine and
temperatures in the 30s to low 40s. Low pressure over northeast
Nebraska early this evening will lift northeast across the Upper
Midwest and bring a cold front southeast overnight. As the low
passes overhead, winds will become light and variable and could
promote the development of areas of fog. The fog will likely
dissipate as winds increase behind the cold front late.

High pressure will slide east along the Canadian border Tuesday.
Cold air advection is not expected to be particularly strong, so
Tuesday will be a bit cooler but there won`t be a bona fide
shot of arctic air with this front. The high will shift east
Tuesday night and allow winds to turn southeast again through
Wednesday. Another high across southern Canada will bring the
second act of winds shifting northwest for Wednesday night,
resuming southeast for Thursday. A stronger low pressure system
over South Dakota will allow these southeast winds to strengthen
and advect better low level moisture north. Considerable low
cloud cover should result and may also result in fog. The
overcast conditions and snowpack will limit how mild
temperatures will likely get and forecasted highs have decreased
a few degrees with the recent trend. The low will become an
inverted trough as it tracks east to the Great Lakes Thursday
night. While not overly impressive, some precipitation should
break out across northern and eastern MN. Warm temperatures
aloft will favor liquid and surface temps will determine whether
it hits the surface as rain or freezing rain. Similar to last
night, amounts will be light but could be impactful for Friday
morning.

A more substantial trough is forecast to dig into northern
Rockies/northern Plains Friday and then track east to the Great
Lakes Saturday night. Most of the precip with this system could
be confined to northern MN, but shifts are likely in the coming
days. The low pressure center could undergo strengthening
depending how the trough digs southeast. Strong high pressure
building south into the northern Plains behind it will usher in
another shot of arctic air Sunday and early next week. Then, a
quick moderating trend in temperatures back to above normal is
likely as zonal flow or slight ridging returns.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout this TAF duration,
though the warmer temperatures with existing snowpack
(particularly fresh over western WI) may create conditions for
fog during the early morning hours. Conditions look best for
RNH/EAU to have such a scenario so have included MVFR
visibilities at this point there. Otherwise, passing high clouds
will continue throughout this duration, with some mid-level fair
wx cumulus clouds possible Tuesday afternoon. Winds will go
light/variable this evening then pick up from the W-NW under
10kts tomorrow.

KMSP...There`s a small chance for some ground fog prior to the
Tuesday morning push but winds aren`t expected to go calm so the
probability for fog is low, thus have left its mention out of
the TAF. Otherwise, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/IFR. Wind light/variable.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...JPC