Moorhead, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

509
FXUS63 KFGF 221140
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
540 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A wintry mix is forecasted Monday into Monday night, mainly
  along and north of Highway 200.

- Another system will bring a wintry mix or snow Christmas Day
  through Friday, with a 20 percent chance for advisory level
  impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...Synopsis...

A warm front is slowly lifting northward this morning, with a few
radar echos extending from the Twin Cities back into southeastern
ND. Currently, we are not seeing any precipitation from these
echos in our FA, due to drier air near the surface. This wave,
traversing across the Northern Plains in zonal flow, will
really be part of a rinse and repeat cycle through the week.
Outside of the baroclinic zone wavering north/south slightly,
zonal flow into next weekend will keep our FA in the active
storm track. Luckily, none of these systems look terribly
strong, but one of a bit stronger strength does pass through to
end the week late Thursday, sticking around into Friday. Another
arrives on its heels Friday night into Saturday. However,
predictability by this point begins to wane as ensembles start
to show a wider envelope of potential scenarios.

...Wintry Mix Today...

While nothing is reaching the ground at this time, this should
change into the afternoon as a shortwave crosses Manitoba. The
better synoptic forcing will reside in Canada, with our FA on
the southern edge. Soundings show a stout warm nose centered on
about 850 mb, which will complicate precipitation type. A mix
of freezing rain and sleet is forecast from Highway 200 north,
with areas adjacent to the Canadian Border where the atmospheric
profile is colder seeing the highest chances of plain snow.
While precipitation should be brief and amounts light, it only
takes a little ice to cause problems, so those out and about
should exercise caution and be mindful of slippery surfaces.

...Potential Winter Impacts Christmas Day and Friday...

Another shortwave arrives on Christmas Day, lasting into Friday.
There is quite a bit of disagreement in how this system plays out,
as some ensembles take the system further north, while others have a
further south track. The track will determine who see what kind of
precipitation, and how much of it. Another warm nose aloft will
likely complicate precipitation type, although where what type of
precipitation occurs is impossible to pinpoint until the track comes
into better agreement. Those with holiday travel plans should
monitor the forecast for the late week period as more details become
available.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR initially, turning to MVFR/IFR at several terminals as time
goes on. Ceilings fall quickest around 00z, with some
improvement possible by the tail end of the TAF period. After
18z, precipitation works its way through, but there remains
significant uncertainty in the coverage/type of precipitation.
Therefore, left any mention out of the TAF for now.
Any remaining precipitation kicks out after 06z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty