Moorhead, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

599
FXUS63 KFGF 140433
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1033 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 50 percent chance for dense fog along and west of
  the Red River tonight.

- A cooler and wetter pattern starts to take shape towards the
  middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Drizzle has ended for the most part, but fog and mist have
developed in its wake. At the moment, observations are above 1SM
for the most part with the exception of northeast North Dakota
where areas of 1/4SM have been noticed. Regardless, this will be
the only impact of the overnight hours.

UPDATE
Issued at 701 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Weather remains fairly quiet with rain diminishing. Lingering
drizzle can still be expected beneath these clouds. West of the
stratus deck, it seems likely that at least either fog or low
level stratus will develop, although the question is which forms
and how far west does it get. No major changes to the current
forecast were done due to predictability remaining about the
same.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

...Synopsis...

Trough that brought our rain today is currently pulling east
into the upper MS Valley, with the surface trough axis already
on the MN side of the Red and the CWA is expected to be under
weak high pressure by early morning. The next shortwave trough
moves more into Canada than our area, leaving southwesterly flow
to ridging for the Northern Plains through the end of the work
week. Split flow sets up for the weekend and into next week,
with a northern branch shortwave bringing a weak chance for
precipitation on Saturday and the southern branch low coming
out in some kind of manner mid-week.

...Stratus and fog tonight...

Portions of the Devils Lake Basin are seeing some sunshine this
afternoon, and at least some parts of eastern ND will see some
clearing this evening as the main trough pulls east. However,
the clearing will be short lived, as light winds and recent
rainfall will be ideal for fog formation on the backside of the
stratus deck. Think that there will be some filling in with
stratus and or fog, just a question of where and how dense. The
HREF has a probability of less than a half mile of 20 to 60
percent in spots along and west of the Red River. Global models
are of course, not quite as bullish, but at least a few of the
MOS runs put in some fog. For now have a patchy fog mention in
portions of far western MN and eastern ND, but don`t feel
confident enough to start putting out headlines.

...Pattern shift next week...

The upper level split flow spits out a weak northern branch
shortwave on Saturday, bringing a few rain showers to our north.
Of greater impact is the possibility of the southern branch wave
coming through. While the deterministic runs both bring it into
Nebraska and Kansas by Monday and eject it northeast, there is
quite a bit of differences in how the upper low gets phased
again, ranging from over the Plains to the Great Lakes. There
seems to be about an even split in the clusters as to how far
east the trough sets up, which will determine how long precip
lingers for us and how much cold air we get. With predictability
pretty low will keep the blended solution going, but it does
look a bit more wet and cooler than we have seen in the recent
past. Just a matter of how cold and what kind of wet will we
see, which is still uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions will persist, both due to visibility and
ceilings. The main question at this point is when conditions
improve. It is expected for conditions to improve from west to
east after 18z, however there is the potential for this to
linger towards 00z for Minnesota. No other aviation impacts are
expected.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Perroux