Lakeville, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

515
FXUS63 KMPX 022017
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
317 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy mixed precipitation continues to move northward through
  this afternoon. Rain, snow, and sleet are all being reported.

- Quiet Thursday and Friday with a 20-30% chance for light rain
  and snow Saturday morning.

- Seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures expected
  through early next week, with a warm up likely by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

It has been quite a messy afternoon across southern and western
Minnesota roads as a wintry mix of rain, snow, and sleet impacts
the region. With the low pressure centered overhead, winds have
remained relatively weak. Temperatures remain within a few
degrees of freezing, causing precipitation type issues.
P-types have been going between rain, sleet, and snow depending
on surface temperatures. This mix is creating a messy situation
on the roads. Heavy precipitation rates within the deformation
band mentioned in previous discussions are coming to fruition.
The deformation band set up slightly farther south and east than
expected, leading to an eastward expansion of the Winter
Weather Advisory. This is largely due to the impact we are
seeing the precipitation have on roads in the far western Metro.
Despite relatively mild winds, visibilities across rural
Minnesota have been near or below 1/2 mile for the majority of
the day due to intense snow. It will be awhile before snow
completely stops in central Minnesota, but we have already have
reports of several inches of snow in far west central
Minnesota. Before the rain transitioned to snow, we were also
receiving reports of hail in the areas of heavier precipitation
(with low freezing levels, hail isn`t hard to come by in events
like this).

Precipitation will finally come to an end overnight as the low
tracks toward the Great Lakes and high pressure builds behind
its departure. The pattern aloft features a large trough
centered over the western CONUS and ridging in the east. This
places us in the middle with southwest flow in the upper-levels.
As we head into Friday night, a trough to our north phases with
the aforementioned trough as a developing surface low
progresses northeast. Depending on how these two upper-level
features interact, some models push the northern extent of the
associated deformation zone of this low into the southern half
of our area. The ensembles depict mediocre probabilities
(30-40% chance) for measurable precipitation south of I-90 but
next to zero chance for seeing more than a tenth of an inch
late Friday into Saturday. This is reflected in our grids with a
splattering of 20-30% PoPs and a few hundredths of QPF.
Overall, this shouldn`t be impactful but is the next realistic
shot at any precipitation. Clouds will linger through early
Saturday before clearing out in the afternoon. After this system
moves east, cold air advection will keep high temperatures
below normal for the end of the weekend with highs in the 40s to
lower 50s in far southern Minnesota. This also means highs in
the mid to upper 30s on Monday in west central Minnesota and
western Wisconsin.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A deformation band of precip from western to central MN will
cause snow and IFR/LIFR conditions to continue at AXN this
afternoon into tonight. Have added a TEMPO for 18-20Z for
expected VLIFR as heavy snowfall rates cause visibilities
periodically drop to 1/4sm. To the south and east, rain and even
a couple of weak thunderstorms will continue to lift off to the
northeast this afternoon into this evening. Mostly IFR
conditions are expected with periods of LIFR possible as cigs
fluctuate around 500 feet and heavier precip rates reduce
visibility. Have also added TEMPOs for MKT, MSP, and RNH this
afternoon for scattered storms along the leading edge of this
activity. Precipitation will end area-wide tonight as the storm
system departs northeast. Conditions should slowly improve to
IFR and then MVFR tonight through Thursday morning as cigs lift
to near 1500 feet. East/northeasterly winds will continue for a
few hours this afternoon before becoming west-northwesterly this
evening and tonight as the surface low passes through. Gusts
could reach 20-25 knots through tonight before speeds slow to
near 10 knots Thursday morning.

KMSP...Added TEMPO from 18-19Z this afternoon for thunderstorms
arriving from the south-southwest. Rain showers and mist
expected to stop by early this evening. IFR conditions hold
through tonight before finally reaching MVFR early Thursday
morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind E 5-10kts.
SAT...Chc MVFR cigs early. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for Douglas-
     Morrison-Pope-Stevens-Todd.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for Benton-
     Chippewa-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Meeker-
     Mille Lacs-Sherburne-Stearns-Swift-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...CTG