Inver Grove Heights, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

008
FXUS63 KMPX 211951
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
251 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and very humid conditions continue through Sunday with
  heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees. Lows tonight will likely
  remain in the lower 80s. Extreme Heat Warnings continue.

- Conditional threat for severe thunderstorms over Minnesota
  Sunday night.

- The active weather pattern resumes next week multiple rounds
  of rain and thunderstorms, including the potential for heavy
  rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

A few fair wx cumulus have bubbled up into isolated showers and
thunderstorms today. Recent satellite images show much of the cu
field has limited vertical growth, however, and not expecting
much activity beyond what has already developed. Temperatures
are still climbing about 2 degrees per hour and that should
continue for the next couple hours before leveling off. Despite
the breezy conditions, only a few sites have had dew points drop
this afternoon and others continue to rise. This had brought
heat indices into the 100s across Minnesota, with some lag in
Wisconsin from the earlier cloud cover.

Temperatures tonight will be very warm. Similar to last night,
breezy south winds and high dew points will keep temps from
sliding quickly after dusk. Madison was in the lower 90s though
3 AM and fell off into the 70s only because an outflow boundary
stemming from the robust convection across northern MN sent
cooler air south. There will not be convection tonight, so
widespread lows in the lower 80s appear very likely. MSP would
have had a low of 82 if not for the brief shower early this
morning. Given the hotter conditions today and no risk of
outflow boundaries Sunday morning, it is expected to be warmer.
The forecast low of 83 at MSP would be the second warmest low on
record, and 3 degrees short of the all-time record of 86 from
the Dust Bowl era. Similar conditions are expected to continue
Sunday. Low level thermal fields will be perhaps a degree C
cooler, so we`ll see nearly identical highs tomorrow.

A cold front will head east into eastern SD by late afternoon.
The prefrontal airmass should remain strongly capped, but there
is a conditional threat for severe thunderstorms if cells can
develop. Very steep mid level lapse rates near 9C/km atop a
moist boundary layer will bring CAPE to 3500 J/kg. The cap will
erode some as the front approaches, but whether it will be
enough to break and allow thunderstorms to develop is the
question. All severe hazards, including significant severe,
would be possible. A band of post frontal showers and
thunderstorms are more likely across western MN Sunday evening,
but this should weaken as it heads east overnight. Redevelopment
should occur Monday afternoon from southern MN to western WI.

The front will settle across Iowa Monday night and Tuesday, then
begin to lift north Tuesday night as the ridge over the eastern
U.S. builds slightly and a disturbance ejects northeast from the
southwestern U.S. Widespread showers and some thunderstorms will
advance in late Tuesday night into Thursday. Pwats around 2
inches, favorable jet dynamics, and the flow parallel to the
boundary could lead to training of highly efficient showers and
storms. Global models aren`t too aggressive with QPF, but it
will be interesting to see how hi-res models handle these rounds
when the time comes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

An isolated shower or two will be possible primarily at EAU
early this afternoon. Otherwise dry and gusty through the 18z
TAF period. Main aviation concerns will be in relation to 45-50
knots of LLWS late tonight through early Sunday in response to
the nocturnal low-level jet. Southerly winds intensify after
daybreak, with gusts between 25-30 knots heading into tomorrow
afternoon.

KMSP...Southwesterly 45-50kt LLWS scenario sets up between
2-11z tonight. Should stay dry through the period, though
chances for -TSRA will return late tomorrow night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/RA likely, chc IFR/TSRA. Wind W-NW 10-20kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind E-NE 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 5-15kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Record high temperatures are possible this weekend with hot/humid
air in place and the warm front remaining to the north of our
coverage area.

*** Record Highs Sat June 21 ***
Location | Forecast | Record
------------------------------
   MSP   |    97    | 95 (1910)
   STC   |    96    | 95 (1910,1900)
   EAU   |    95    | 98 (1995)

*** Record Highs Sun June 22 ***
Location | Forecast | Record
------------------------------
   MSP   |    97    | 98 (1911)
   STC   |    95    | 98 (1911)
   EAU   |    95    | 99 (1995)

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for Anoka-Benton-
     Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-
     Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-
     Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-
     Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-
     Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-
     Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Sunday for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Strus
CLIMATE...JPC