Apple Valley, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

054
FXUS63 KMPX 201125
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
525 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow this morning across central Minnesota into western
  Wisconsin with under half an inch of accumulation expected.

- Next chance of light snow arrives Sunday night into Monday.

- Warmer and drier as we head into the holidays.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Warm air advective precipitation is ongoing this morning across
central Minnesota. With dry air near the surface much of this
precipitation is not reaching the surface. Most of the
precipitation that has been reported is farther north and
in the colder air thus it is has been mostly snow. There have
been a few isolated reports for some wintry mix with UP METARs,
but snow remains the primary precipitation type this morning. As
a low continues east across southern Canada, the warm air
advection associated with it will shift east as well. This will
move the snow chances into west central Wisconsin by mid morning
and out entirely by late morning. A return to cold air advection
follows the passage of this low to our north. How much diurnal
heating and the CAA cancel each other out will depend on how
cloud cover evolves today. The cloudier we are the colder we get
during the day. Saturday night will be cold, but light winds
should keep wind chill values in the single digits below zero.

Sunday starts cold, but with winds shifting south again ahead of
our next precipitation chance, temperatures will warm into the
20s (30s along the Buffalo Ridge) during the day. A building
ridge will allow for this warmer and more moist airmass to
continue to advect in Sunday into Monday. This will help to
saturate the atmosphere Sunday night into early Monday and
provide for our next precipitation chance. As this does not
look to be a strongly forced system QPF looks to remain light.
Global ensemble systems favor Wisconsin for precipitation
chances, although we cannot rule out farther east over
Minnesota. Similar to what we have seen this morning, with WAA
driven precipitation, precipitation type will be a concern. Warm
noses are present in many forecast soundings, although snow
remains favored. If the warm nose is a little warmer than
expected though freezing rain could be a concern.

The story for the rest of the week is warm and dry. By Christmas
Day 850 mb temperatures of 15 to 20 degrees C will have us well
above normal. How warm we get will depend on how much snow is
left to modify the airmass. Current NBM forecast values in the
lower to mid 40s are modeling the snowpack remaining, but if
the snowpack did melt temperatures approaching 50 would be
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

A narrow band of snow managed to saturate and produce a brief
burst of snow across E MN & W WI. I`ve kept -SN out other than
KRNH where a brief period of -SN is likely for the first 30
minutes or so.

Otherwise, gusty NW winds expected for to ramp up after
sunrise, along with falling temperatures. Not sold on the
potential for a stratocu field today so I`ve kept us VFR
throughout the period. It can`t be completely ruled out given
steep low level lapse rates in the CAA regime but we`ll have to
wait & see what develops first. For now, kept it as few or sct,
but you can`t completely rule out an MVFR cig through the
afternoon at STC/MSP/RNH/EAU. Winds go light and variable after
tonight into Sunday AM.

KMSP...Light snow will quickly taper off around the start of
the TAF period. VFR & dry afterwards.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance MVFR/SN early. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
TUE...MVFR ceilings possible. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...BPH