Livonia, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

178
FXUS63 KDTX 232005
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
305 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler Wednesday, but temperatures still look to be above normal
  over the next five days.

- Some rain showers, and perhaps a bit of freezing drizzle further
  north, will be possible Wednesday night.

- Potential is increasing for a wintry mix, including freezing rain
  and some snow, to impact the region Friday morning; ice
  accumulations could approach a quarter inch, locally.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Southeast Michigan remains positioned along the eastern periphery of
long wavelength ridging marked by above normal temperatures heading
into Christmas and the holiday weekend.

A weak frontal boundary clears east by this evening causing winds to
finish veering westerly, along with an uptick in gradient speeds.
850 mb temperatures decrease from the mid-upper single digits
(Celsius) to low single digits overnight as shorter wavelength lower
column ridging drops into the Great Lakes from the Upper Midwest.
Expect the reintroduction of partial cloud cover tonight, but
temperatures should still drop below freezing by Wednesday morning
as winds weaken and turn northerly.

Dry weather prevails Wednesday as aggregate surface high pressure
centers over the Great Lakes. Weak surface flow orients
southeasterly into the afternoon hours while flow within the 1-4 kft
AGL layer flips southwesterly beneath an approaching embedded speed
max. This feature also spurs weak cyclogenesis Wednesday night with
the resultant surface low tracking across the northern extent of the
Ohio Valley. Post-directional shift in low-level winds helps
precondition the environment for nocturnal shower activity. Should
be mostly (liquid) rain, but could see a thin glaze of ice on
grassy/elevated surfaces and a few melting snowflakes mixing in.
Most solutions are running relatively lean on QPF, only a few
hundredths of an inch south of M-59. Likelihood for any
precipitation decreases with northward extent given displacement
from moisture advection, and a tendency for descent due to
positioning of right exit region jet dynamics along a strengthening
northern stream wave. Better potential for brief freezing drizzle
exists north of I-69 given colder temperatures and drier surfaces;
no measurable ice accumulations anticipated, should the freezing
drizzle materialize.

Cold advection expands from NE to SW Christmas Day as a
characteristically strong surface ridge (1035 mb) crosses Ontario,
resulting in NNE flow locally behind a backdoor cold front. High
temperatures could range between the mid 30s north to mid 40s south,
depending on the rate of progress for the colder airmass. No
precipitation concerns given ample subsidence which translates to
high confidence in a snow-free Christmas. Clouds will be around most
of the day.

Potential continues to increase in an impactful system to affect
Lower Michigan Friday. Many details regarding how this system
ultimately evolves hinges on temperature profiles during the early
stages of the event. The current expectation is for a prolonged
period of freezing rain with meaningful ice accretions for most
locations. This assumes Friday morning 2m air (and similar surface)
temperatures start out below freezing, and then hold at/below until
the late morning or midday hours as an elevated moisture-rich warm
front surges into southern Lower, ahead of the next low pressure
system. QPF is quite high for a winter event with potential for over
half an inch at some locations, even pushing three quarters on a
more localized/mesoscale basis. Forecast soundings show a deep
inversion to around 7 or 8 kft AGL with a MaxT aloft pushing 8C.
Initial surface temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30F with
PWATs rising into the 0.80-0.90 inches range would prove to be
optimal for forming an initial icing layer. Aided by healthy
dewpoint depressions, efficient evaporative cooling and accretion
would prime the region for continued freezing rain into the daylight
hours while under easterly flow. The isentropic ascent and dynamic
assist should provide sustained forcing for perhaps moderate FZRA
rates during the peak of the event with the heaviest icing totals
potentially exceeding a quarter inch. Given that the start of the
event is still about 60 hours away, no headlines were considered at
this time, but will be closely monitored over the next few forecast
cycles.

A changeover to pure rain will occur for most areas by Friday
afternoon while areas north of I-69 or M-46 could see both an
extended period of light freezing rain, or prolonged sleet/snow.
Should dry out and stabilize Friday night, then mild again through
the weekend. Highly amplified synoptic pattern leaves additional
opportunities for precipitation through the back half of the weekend
and into early next week, including the next arctic blast by Monday

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front will push across the Great Lakes today which will
continue to back wind direction from west to northwest. The coldest
air behind the front will briefly clip Lake Huron, improving both
mixing depths and over-lake instability. This in conjunction with
favorable fetch will produce gusts to gales across north and north-
central Lake Huron this evening until around Midnight, where a Gale
Warning is in effect. Some sporadic gust to gales will be possible
across central Lake Huron during this time frame, however, will
preclude any expansion of the Gale Warning given the more isolated
nature and shorter duration of any gale potential. The favorable
wind direction will also elevated wave heights into outer Saginaw
Bay and across the northern Thumb, where Small Craft Advisories are
in effect. High pressure to then quickly fill in over the Great
Lakes tomorrow morning which will rapidly diminish stronger gust
potential and subsequent elevated wave heights. This will bring
lighter winds through the midweek period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

AVIATION...

Very strong warming to +8C at 850mb has been efficient in drying out
the column over Southeast Michigan. Many observing sites are
reporting SKC. Shortwave maximum passing through portions of Canada
adjacent to Lake Huron will cause a cold front to backdoor through
Southeast Michigan tonight. Magnitude of shallow cold air advection
is forecasted to be strong enough that saturation and low cloud will
be possible late tonight particularly withe snow melt today.
Challenging aspect of this forecast was to decide whether or not to
side with low cloud vs. fog. Deep and lowering subsidence should
result in prevailing VFR with thickening mid-high cloud.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet late this evening and tonight.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LHZ361-362.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday
     for LHZ421-441-442.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......AM
AVIATION.....CB


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