Flint, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

825
FXUS63 KDTX 252244
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
644 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable conditions will exist to finish the weekend.

- Warming trend Monday as dry conditiosn persist, before showers and
thunderstorms return Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry air advection has been slowly eroding the low cloud deck across
the thumb and Saginaw Valley region. As northeasterly low level flow
persists through the evening, this clearing is expected to advance
across the terminals. Given the deep low level inversion, there is
some degree of uncertainty as to how quickly this clearing takes
hold and whether any lingering low clouds hold under the inversion.
In light of current satellite trends, timing the loss of a BKN or
OVC ceiling at the terminals has been moved up a couple hours.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms expected through this TAF
period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

DISCUSSION...

Notably cooler conditions entrenched locally within a persistent
area of stratus late this afternoon, as the resident thermal profile
now governed by prevailing northerly flow south of influential high
pressure. Secondary period of cold air advection this evening as
flow veers and increases depth to northeast wind, with the thermal
flux augmented by onshore flow off the cold lake Huron waters. This
process will also work to erode remaining saturation beneath the
inversion, affording a gradual clearing trend with time. Lows Sunday
morning arriving in the uppe 30s to lowe 40s most locatins.

Deep layer stability held within prevailing low to mid level ridging
affords dry and seasonable conditions to finish the weekend period.
A standard moderation of the existing airmass occurs under a high
degree of insolation and increasing upper height field, but still
lacking in meaningful warm air advection. Highs in the lower 60s in
most locations, except near the shorelines. Lingering influence of
upper ridging ensures dry and stable conditions persist throughout
the daylight period Monday. Resident airmass continues to moderate
given the elevated mean thickness readings, but still capped by a
low level gradient that remains modified by a southeasterly
component. Highs arriving above average - readings mid to upper 60s.

Mid level wave noted on water vapor this afternoon off the coast of
California projected to eject northeast over the next 72 hours, with
the main height fall center reaching the great lakes by Tuesday
morning. A narrow plume of deeper moisture will align parallel to
the inbound associated cold front, as the parent surface low tracks
toward lake Superior. A sizable convective episode likely to emerge
upstream by Monday evening within a favored corridor of higher
magnitude instability and supportive kinematics. Influx of higher
quality moisture coincident with an increase in frontal forcing will
likely sustain this activity to some degree into lower Michigan Mon
night-Tue morning. Expectation for limited instability to exist as
consolidated activity funnels downstream and arrives locally within
the diurnal minimum precludes a greater concern for organized
convection at this stage. Forecast will continue to call for a high
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms within the AM hours.

Broad mid level troughing south of a closed low meandering across
central Canada will take control through the latter half of next
week. Generally benign conditions favored within this pattern,
absent of meaningful areas of greater forced ascent and moisture
quality/depth. Trending cooler with time Wed to Fri as mid level
heights gradually decline atop prevailing low level northwest flow.
Below average temperatures expected to wrap up the month of April.

MARINE...

Gradual establishment of high pressure maintains a slow weakening
trend in winds through the evening. High holds over the region
through early Monday maintaining benign marine conditions.
Southeasterly winds strength latter half of Monday as the next low
lifts out of the central Plains towards the northern Great Lakes.
While a 45-60kt LLJ develops over the central Great Lakes Monday
night, accompanying warm advection should promote a stable overlake
thermal profile limiting mixing potential. Currently local
probabilistic guidance is advertising a ~35% chance to reach 34kts.
Arrival of showers and storms late night-early Tuesday does offer
potential for profiles to turn more neutral, however this set-up
would warrant short-fused special marine warnings over gale
headlines. System`s cold front crosses daytime Tuesday ending storm
chances as well as flipping winds to the northwest. Rapidly
weakening pressure gradient on the backedge of the low keeps these
winds under 30kts.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......KDK


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.