Detroit, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

229
FXUS63 KDTX 252255
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
655 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The best day of the holiday weekend is lined up for Memorial Day
  with dry weather and high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower
  70s.

- Rain and cooler temperatures move back in for the mid week period.

&&

.AVIATION...

The diurnal cumulus field has organized into coarser, more widely
spaced streets, as the depth of mixing has increased through the
afternoon. Only a few sprinkles have mustered out of the more
aggressive updrafts, and the time has passed for any additional fresh
growth. So, the coasting to dissipation is well underway and will
conclude prior to midnight. The influence of the surface high is
starting to turn the flow to the northeast as the speeds are
quelling - resulting in light wind conditions overnight, emerging as
light easterly Monday mid-morning. The surface layer is now rather
dry, with dewpoints mixed down into the upper 30s; so, only
expecting some patchy ground fog in the typical locations. Diurnal
VFR clouds will sprout again Monday, but with a drop in coverage
compared to today.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms expected.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025

DISCUSSION...

A weak surface highs slides into the central Great Lakes while a
shortwave trough shears aloft while providing weak synoptic lift.
This maintains the north to northwest flow throughout the column.
This flow regime has continued to support the daytime cumulus
develop and relatively cooler temperatures, though temperatures
continue to moderate slightly upward a couple degrees above 0C at
850 mb. Mean surface CAPE to near 100 J/kg this afternoon has been
enough to support some weak isolated shower development in northern
lower MI, especially in combination with any differential heating
zones and subsequent surface convergence that occurs around the
lakeshores. Convective depths will be capped at to around 10 kft, so
no thunder is expected. Highest PoPs focused across Saginaw Bay and
downstream to the southeast. Afternoon highs in the 60s will drop
down into the low to mid 40s tonight.

Surface pressure and shortwave ridge move over Michigan for Memorial
Day resulting in a dry day and temperatures in the upper 60s to low
70s. Will probably see another day with decent cumulus development
yet again as the favorable lower level north to northeast flow for
this remains in place. The gradual moderation in the airmass will
also help overnight lows tomorrow night climb up largely in the mid
and upper 40s with some low 50s across the Detroit urban areas.

On Tuesday, a southern stream shortwave originating across the Four
corners region interacts with a upper Midwest/northern plains
mid/upper closed low. The interaction between the two will determine
the general onset of precipitation timing as the closed upper low
stalls over the region Wednesday into Thursday. A better phasing of
the two will bring better precipitation chances during the later
half of Tuesday into Tuesday night. Afternoon NBM guidance has
PoPs increasing from south to north late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night with an extended period of PoPs through Wednesday and
Thursday. Thunder chances through Thursday appear pretty limited
based on latest instability forecast. The overall pattern will lend
itself cooler conditions for a couple days with improvement in
temperatures late week into the weekend.

MARINE...

High pressure will continue to work in across the Great Lakes today,
centering over the region by tomorrow afternoon. Light winds and dry
weather persist under the influence of high pressure, outside of
scattered afternoon and evening showers across the Saginaw Bay and
Lake Huron. North to northwest flow will start to veer to the
northeast into tomorrow and will continue to veer northeast to east
by Tuesday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....Mann
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......AM


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.