Dearborn Heights, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

387
FXUS63 KDTX 142256
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
656 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures and dry into early next week.

- Showers and strong thunderstorms return for the mid week period.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure centered
over the northern great lakes maintains influence across the region.
Limited cloud potential outside of pockets of cirrus this period
given existing dry and stable conditions. Prevailing winds remain
modest from the east-northeast.

For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms expected through this TAF
period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

DISCUSSION...

Upper level ridge centered (aoa 593 DAM at 500 MB) over southern New
Mexico extending north-northeast into the northern Plains. Over
lower Michigan, upper level northwest confluent flow with stable low
level airmass will lead to the rest of the weekend being dry. Max
temps right around 80 degrees tomorrow for most areas, except cooler
by Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay/Lake Erie with the easterly flow.

The top of the ridge axis looks to be flattening as some Pacific
upper level energy tracks through the Pacific Northwest/northern
Rockies. Active warm front over Western Great Lakes Sunday night
into Monday, and its possible some elevated showers survive the trip
on Monday, but mainly just slight chance pop worthy around around
Saginaw Bay. The main 500 MB height fall center looks to be tracking
along or just north of western Lake Superior.

A bigger impact to our weather looks to be with the shortwave/height
fall center coming out of the Central Plains for the mid week
period. There looks to be interaction and eventual phasing with
northern Stream energy, as the ECMWF AIFS indicates a seasonably
strong surface low tracking through southern Lower Michigan
Wednesday night. This would draw concern for severe weather with
influx of moisture/instability (MLcapes aoa 1000 J/kg) and noted 45+
knots of 0-6 KM bulk shear. High degree of timing/location and
magnitude differences amongst the Euro ensemble members, but
majority of the solutions track the low through center or northern
Lower Michigan, which would argue for a strong to severe threat
Wednesday evening with the deepening low pressure
system/strengthening low level jet. Progressive nature of the system
should keep the rainfall amounts manageable, as 24 hr qpf props of
greater than half an inch are 40-60 percent, with probabilities cut
in half for greater than one inch, per euro ensembles.

MARINE...

High pressure over Ontario and Quebec dominates the forecast with
light northeast wind, generally 10 kt or less, across the central
Great Lakes and dry conditions through the weekend. The northeast
wind funnels up the axis of Saginaw Bay and locally increases to
around 15 to 20 knots each afternoon. Light flow then gains a
southerly component by Monday and Tuesday which allows a warmer and
more unstable air mass to arrive. A warm front brings the next
chance for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, and unsettled
conditions are likely to continue through the mid-week as several
disturbances move through.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......TF

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