Battle Creek, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

624
FXUS63 KGRR 240816
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
316 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of rain south tonight

- Freezing rain Thursday night/Friday

- Mild weekend, then colder with snow

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Chance of rain south tonight

Temperatures have fallen into the mid 20s along I-94 and freezing
fog has developed. However, it appears to be contained to low
lying areas and isn`t widespread at this point. It`s possible
there could be a few slick spots where this occurs; the freezing
fog should dissipate after sunrise.

A weak wave will ride over the upper ridge to the west today and
move across northern Indiana tonight. The wave doesn`t have much
moisture with it, but may have enough to generate a hundredth or
two of light rain south of a Grand Haven to Lansing line. Surface
temperatures during this precipitation are expected to be in the
34-36 degree range which should preclude any ice formation.


- Freezing rain Thursday night/Friday

We`re still fairly bullish on the freezing rain threat Christmas
night into Friday. This does not look like a significant ice storm
by any stretch. But, there probably will be enough freezing rain
that develops to result in some travel impacts Thursday night and
Friday.

Models are in pretty good agreement in producing the ingredients
necessary for freezing rain Thursday night. For one, tonight`s
wave that moves by to the south...weak as it is...will help to
pull down some colder air from Canada. High pressure will move
across Ontario and provide a east to northeast wind flow Thursday
night which will advect colder air westward from Ontario.
Secondly, another wave of low pressure is progd to move across the
corn belt east to northern Indiana with the upper short wave
moving over the cwa. Third, the warm air advection aloft ahead of
the wave will warm the cloud layer and precipitation that develops
will fall as light rain and then freeze on the surface.

Operational runs of the GFS/Nam 3km show surface temperatures
remaining in the 29-31F degree range Thursday night and Friday.
Forecast soundings show a pronounced warm nose between 690mb-860
mb as the precipitation moves through. This is a classic freezing
rain sounding. FRAM (freezing rain accumulation model) paints
0.10-0.15 inches of freezing rain across most of the cwa. No
doubt, roads will become slick Thursday night and Friday until
they can get treated. We aren`t expected winds greater than 20 mph
or so. This would be a much bigger deal if surface temperatures
were expected in the mid 20s, higher QPF, and stronger winds. As
of now, that`s not the case. That said, can`t rule out isolated to
scattered power outages.

Surface temperatures will climb above freezing after noon Friday,
mitigating the icing hazard and the precipitation should end late
Friday afternoon as it moves east.

- Mild weekend, then colder with snow

Another wave of low pressure moving across the Dakotas will push
warmer air into the state Saturday sending highs into the upper
30s to lower 40s. Light rain will develop Sunday as a strong cold
front associated with the low moves into the state and that will
turn light rain to light snow Sunday afternoon. Sunday`s highs in
the upper 30s to lower 40s will be early in the day and
temperatures will fall during the afternoon. This is a decent
blast of cold air and the models have been showing this for a few
days. H8 temperatures fall to -20c, creating strong instability
over the lake that will get the lake effect snow going again;
Monday looks cold and snowy with highs around 20. Lake effect snow
will likely continue into Tuesday before warmer air moves in and
shuts down the precipitation.

Another cold front will drop south Wednesday, reinforcing the cold
air in place and get the lake effect snow going again.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

The two main concerns with the next 24 hour period, 06z to 06z,
are fog this morning and then lower ceilings tonight. We are
already seeing light fog developing across the area at 05z due to
light winds and mainly clear skies. The fog will likely become a
bit more pervasive as we work through the night with MVFR
visibilities becoming more likely. Also, the lower (MVFR) ceilings
over Central Lower Michigan will make a run at MKG and GRR towards
daybreak. The daylight hours of Wednesday will likely be mainly
VFR with the fog dissipating early and ceilings at or above 10,000
feet for the most part. Lower ceilings will develop once again
after dark as we head into Wednesday night. MVFR and even IFR
ceilings will develop from the southwest after 00z.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Duke