Battle Creek, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

388
FXUS63 KGRR 221115
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
615 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light mix of precipitation Monday

- Slow moderating trend of temperatures this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

- Light mix of precipitation Monday

High pressure will bring cold and tranquil wx today before a
fairly weak northern stream low pressure system brings increasing
clouds tonight and a light mix of pcpn Monday. A fairly strong
mid to upper level shortwave/pva should give pcpn a boost Monday
afternoon and early evening. However moisture with this system is
limited. Therefore we are only expecting a one to three inch type
snowfall near to north of the I-96 corridor (relatively highest
amounts well north of I-96 where thermal profiles are colder).

Meanwhile near to mainly south of the I-96 corridor thermal
profiles will moderate sufficiently enough for a wintry mix of
sleet and freezing drizzle and light rain to develop as suggested
by the 00Z HREF and some of our higher res short range guidance.
Therefore we expect snowfall amounts of just trace amounts to
under an inch south of I-96. However there may be just a bit of
light icing across this area. Any impacts from this mix across our
southern counties should be rather minimal given expectations for
pcpn to be rather light and for sfc temps to eventually reach the
mid 30s by mid to late afternoon into the evening.

- Slow moderating trend of temperatures this week

Temps will undergo a slow moderating trend from Christmas Day
through the rest of the week as flow becomes south to
southwesterly and upper ridging develops by late week. A fairly
tranquil wx pattern will develop with a chance for light warm air
advection precipitation for mid to late week. A better chance for
precipitation will come by next weekend as there will be plenty of
moisture in place by then and as a stronger low pressure system
moves ne from the Arklatex region. P-type will be plain rain given
a relatively milder airmass in place over our area by then.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

Mostly VFR conditions this morning with stratus cloud deck with
bases 3000 to 4000 ft AGL and tops blo 5000 ft AGL. THe clouds
will be slowly thinning out into the afternoon. Southeast winds
around 10 knots with some gusts to 20 knots along Lake Michigan.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST
     Monday for LMZ846>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laurens
AVIATION...Ostuno