Battle Creek, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

556
FXUS63 KGRR 030535
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
135 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Weather Still Possible near I-94

- Rain chances Friday night Saturday

- Cold Shot with Snow Early Next Week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

KGRR/rgnl radar trends as of 0115Z show strong convection over our
far east to se fcst area. This convection will continue to race to
the ene and we expect that the threat for any severe wx across
that area will come to an end by around 02Z late this evening.
Scattered rain showers and perhaps an isolated storm will linger
overnight. Our going forecast for the rest of this evening looks
good and we will just make some minor modifications mainly to
account for timing of the convection out of our area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Severe Weather Still Possible near I-94

Lack of instability has precluded any severe weather so far this
afternoon and the gravity wave wind threat has also been
underwhelming so far with a few mesonet sites seeing wind
direction changes and gusts 30 knots or less across southern Lower
Michigan.

There is still the chance of a few severe wind gusts and possible
low level mesocyclones with a tornado threat closer to the sfc
warm front across southern Lower Michigan, persisting longest
across the southeast zones this evening. Trends will continue to
be monitored, but at this point the severe threat seems low.

- Rain chances over the weekend

A low across the Southern Plains moves northeast ahead of a
deepening longwave upper trough by Friday with the northern edge
of the precip shield reaching the southeast half of the forecast
area Friday night into Saturday. Colder air filters in across the
north with a mix of snow possible if the precip lingers into
Saturday night and Sunday.

- Cold Shot with Snow Early Next Week

Upper troughing deepens into early next week with a clipper low
tracking across the Great Lakes. The air mass appears cold enough
to allow a coating of Spring snow by Sunday night through Monday
with accums possible for most if not all of Lower Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Any area of LIFR ceilings and visibilities is present around MOP
to RQB and northward. Visibilities and ceilings should improve in
this region around 8Z. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected with
pockets of MVFR lingering into Thursday morning. There is a signal
for MKG to see MVFR ceilings around 2500 feet Thursday morning and
afternoon. Therefore added it into the TAFs, although the duration
could be shorter.

Gusty southwest winds will continue, especially Thursday morning
where inland areas are expected to gust around 30 to 35 knots.
There is a brief window where JXN and LAN could gust to 40 knots
between 14-16Z. Lighter winds move in Thursday night as high
pressure builds into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

No changes to the Gale Warning, which expires at 11 pm. A SCA has
been issued to begin at 11 pm and run through Thursday afternoon.
Winds will go onshore tonight so waves will build closer to
shore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

In general, 1 to 2 inches of rain has fallen so far today across the
Grand and Kalamazoo basins, with another 0.5 to 1.0 likely before
the rain and storms move out later this evening. A few localized
totals over 3 inches are possible. We`ve seen some minor general
flooding in the far southwest counties including Kalamazoo. These
areal flooding risks will diminish quickly once the rounds of storms
move out.

While the Muskegon River basin did get less rain, water levels were
already starting out higher there due to previous storms, so some
minor flooding is expected over the coming days in Newaygo and also
in Bridgeton. Across the Grand River, it looks like most places will
probably see significant rises but avoid flooding. Exceptions to
this will probably be some of the flooding "trouble spots" including
Comstock Park, around Lansing on the Red Cedar River as well as
Sycamore Creek, and potentially down along the Portage River near
Vicksburg.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Laurens
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...Ostuno
HYDROLOGY...AMD