Battle Creek, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

687
FXUS63 KGRR 131945
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
245 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow Tonight Through Thursday Morning, Locally Heavy Near The
  Lakeshore

- Accumulating Snow Likely Friday With Lake Enhanced System

- Lake Effect Snow and Cold Continue Into The Weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Snow Tonight Through Thursday Morning, Locally Heavy Near The
Lakeshore

The arrival of an arctic front after 06z tonight will cause a
significant change in conditions by Wednesday morning. The setup
will be favorable for snow squalls along the front with a brief
burst of heavier snow, enhanced winds, and flash freezing of any
roads that remain wet. Given the light snow amounts and
progressive nature of this portion of the event, there is not
enough to warrant headlines for this situation. Particularly with
the bulk of the impacts occuring before the morning commute, this
situation may be best suited for a Special Weather Statement. The
front should clear the area by 6/7 am.

Given the robust cold pool aloft with delta-Ts near 20C, lake effect
will ramp up quickly post arctic frontal passage. Inversion heights
in the afternoon Wednesday climb north of 10kft given the favorable
instability, and BUFKIT progs show a very favorable environment with
solid lift in the DGZ. Given the north-northwesterly flow regime the
greatest impacts will be in the Mason, Oceana, northern Muskegon,
western Allegan, and western Van Buren counties. The eastern
shift noted yesterday in guidance continues with a strong signal
among hi-res guidance for one or several heavier bands to develop
across Southwest Michigan. Advisory level snow of 3-7 inches is
likely, and if a band can become stationary, localized higher
amounts will become likely. Will issue an advisory for these
counties for now, but a warning may be needed in later updates if
confidence increases in a stationary band developing and where it
would develop. Gusty will may further cause travel impacts across
this area with periods of blowing snow/reduced visibility. The
rest of West Michigan is likely to see 1-3 inches of snow. The
arrival of shortwave ridging Wednesday Night will lead to lake
effect slowly winding down into Thursday morning. We`ll then see a
short break for the day Thursday.

- Accumulating Snow Likely Friday With Lake Enhanced System

The break Thursday is short lived with the arrival of a potent
shortwave and associated low pressure system Thursday Night into
early Friday morning. Southwest flow with favorable over-lake
instability will result in lake enhanced snow across West Michigan
starting early Friday morning and continuing through the day.
Snow is likely areawide with LREF ensemble mean QPF from 0.1"
near US127 to 0.3" west of US131. Several inches of accumulating
snow are possible, especially near and west of US131. Amounts will
need to be fine-tuned over the next several days.

- Lake Effect Snow and Cold Continue Into The Weekend

The trough that will center over the eastern CONUS persists over
the area into mid next week. Very cold air aloft associated with
this will support continued lake effect potential. This pattern
fits the classic "Hudson Bay Low" setup with several reinforcing
shortwaves providing bursts of heavier lake effect through the
weekend and into early next week. These frequent shortwaves and
associated clippers will re-orient low-level winds making it
difficult to pin down amounts at this range. The greatest
potential for travel impacts will be near and west of US131 where
the greatest lake enhancement will be. Accumulation over several
days will quickly add up through early next week, in addition to
persistent cold. Highs early next week may not make it out of the
teens.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Visible satellite imagery shows clearing moving across the
terminals. VFR expected through the afternoon.

A strong cold front will move through after midnight tonight and
snow showers will develop along the frontal boundary. Cigs/vsbys
will fall in conjunction with fropa. Expect snow showers in it`s
wake.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this afternoon with wind
gusts of 25-30 knots being seen at many of our lakeshore observation
platforms. A Gale Warning goes into effect late tonight with wind
gusts to 40 knots likely across the nearshore waters along with
moderate freezing spray. Winds subside below gales early Thursday
morning with conditions hazardous to small craft likely continuing
into the weekend.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday
     for MIZ037-043-050-064-071.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thomas
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Thomas