Houma, Louisianna 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

403
FXUS64 KLIX 141140
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
540 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

 - Small Craft Advisories will be in effect from midday Wednesday
   through mid-afternoon Thursday due to cold air advection behind a
   frontal passage. A few gusts to gale force are possible.

 - A few locations well north of Interstate 12 could briefly fall
   below freezing around sunrise Thursday with a more widespread
   freeze likely Friday morning.

 - According to the National Fire Protection Association, nearly
   half of all home fires occur between the months of December,
   January and February, with the increased risk attributed to the
   use of home heating devices such as portable space heaters and
   fireplaces. Those planning to use such devices during this
   cold snap should safety recommendations - such as using a
   screen and keeping a fire extinguisher near all fire places;
   and ensuring all space heaters are plugged directly into wall
   outlets and placed on level surfaces at least 3 ft from any
   flammable materials.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Deep longwave trough over eastern Canada into the Ohio River Valley
this evening with multiple shortwaves moving through it. There was a
southern stream shortwave moving through east Texas. Upper
ridging was centered over northern California. At the surface, a
narrow ridge of high pressure was along the northern Gulf Coast.
Low pressure over eastern Canada had numerous wind shifts/frontal
boundaries wrapping around it, with the one most likely to impact
the local weather moving through Oklahoma and Texas at mid evening.
Mid and high clouds covered most of the area with radar and
surface observations indicating a few patches of rain showers
over the area. Amounts have been very minimal with no lightning
indicated. Evening temperatures ranged from the mid 40s to mid
50s.

The southern stream shortwave will race eastward and be over the
Atlantic Coast by Wednesday evening. A northern stream shortwave
moving toward the base of the upper trough will cross the area by
evening, with a third shortwave reaching the base of the trough by
Thursday afternoon. The 00z LIX and LCH soundings were very dry
below 750 mb (about 7500 feet), so it will take a while to moisten
up. Any areas that see rain in the short term portion of the
forecast will have it perhaps until mid-morning, and rain amounts
will be light, as the best forcing may depart before the lower
layers reach saturation. Cloud cover may be slower to clear,
closer to sunset. It should be noted that 500 mb temperatures are
rather chilly, as low as -20C to -25C during the afternoon, and
if we were to get some sunshine before the moisture departs,
there`d be a very low end threat of small hail or graupel.
Certainly not enough of a threat to play up, but something to
watch. Thursday will be sunny and cold. Precipitable water values
near 0.10 inch Thursday (close to the climo minimum) means it`ll
be tough to even get any clouds.

Clouds overnight will likely hold most areas in the 40s through
sunrise. The reinforcement of cold air won`t really arrive until
near sunset Wednesday, so high temperatures could still get into
the mid 60s Wednesday afternoon. A brief freeze possible late
Wednesday night if winds drop off enough well to the north of the
Interstate 10/12 corridor, but not a large enough threat to
justify freeze products at this time. Thursday is unlikely to get
past the lower 50s for highs. More significant threat for a freeze
Thursday night as winds go calm with dry air in place. Much of
the area north of the Interstate 10/12 could fall into the upper
20s around sunrise Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Upper troughing covers much of the eastern 2/3 of the country
through the weekend into at least early next week. Shortwaves
rotating through the trough will reinforce the cold dry air on a
couple occasions, with the first Friday night or Saturday.
Precipitable water values are forecast to remain below 0.75 inches
(approx 50th percentile) until perhaps next Tuesday night, so
significant precipitation is going to be rather difficult to come
by. Perhaps a few sprinkles with the shortwave passage around Friday
night, but otherwise not much through the daytime hours Tuesday.

For the most part, not a lot of spread in temperature guidance,
although would note that NBM deterministic favors the cooler
guidance on Saturday (generally ECMWF) and is cooler than both the
GFS and ECMWF for highs on Sunday. Several opportunities for light
freezes over the northern half of the area, but nothing
catastrophic.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across the region and for
the most part most terminals will remain VFR status through the
day. However, there is a limited window for cigs and/or vsbys to
fall into MVFR over the next 2 hours as -RA/-SHRA linger over the
area the next few hours. By 14/15z that impact should come to an
end with mostly mid and upper lvl clouds. Other small impact could
be winds behind the front late this afternoon and overnight. LLWS
could be an issue for a few sites. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Winds will become westerly during the morning as the high pressure
shifts quickly eastward. Wind speeds increase by midday into early
afternoon with a cold frontal passage and cold air advection
behind the front. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for all
waters starting at noon, although it may be late afternoon before
winds ramp up over the eastern outer waters. Could be a few gusts
to gale force overnight into early Thursday morning, but not high
enough confidence to justify a Gale Warning at this time. Oncoming
shifts will continue to monitor. Conditions should improve pretty
quickly Thursday night as high pressure returns to the waters.
However, favorable conditions may be pretty short lived with cold
frontal passages approximately every 48 hours into early next
week. Additional advisories may be necessary as early as Saturday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  59  29  47  28 /  40  10   0   0
BTR  64  33  52  29 /  20  10   0   0
ASD  64  32  52  27 /  20   0   0   0
MSY  67  38  52  36 /  10   0   0   0
GPT  62  33  51  30 /  20  10   0   0
PQL  62  31  50  27 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 PM CST Thursday for
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 PM CST Thursday for
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...RW