Winfield, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

867
FXUS63 KICT 252044
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
344 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon through
  tonight with large hail as the primary hazard.

- Severe storms possible again on Sunday with potentially all
  hazards possible, though uncertainty continues to be high.

- Mostly dry conditions and mild temperatures are expected for Monday
  through Wednesday with possible rain chances returning late
  in the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Currently, an upper low continues to spin over Saskatchewan
with additional broad troughing extending into the Northern
Plains. An upper shortwave is over western Kansas and will
continue to shift east this afternoon and into tonight. At the
surface, a low is over western KS with a frontal boundary
extending from north central KS into eastern NE and then into
the Upper Mississippi Valley. An additional low is over parts of
western Oklahoma into Texas with a warm front over the OK/TX
border. In our area, cloud cover continues with a few showers
and storms ongoing in central/north-central KS due to 700mb WAA.
As we continue into later this afternoon and tonight, some
elevated storms are anticipated to develop across central and
south-central KS. Model guidance continues to suggest modest
instability with 30-40 kts of effective shear and steep mid-
level lapse rates. This would support large hail as the primary
threat with potentially severe wind gusts. Given this risk, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of
central and south- central KS. The LLJ is anticipated to stay
farther south in central Oklahoma which would reduce chances for
severe winds as we move into this evening. Activity is expected
to move east/southeast late this evening with storms likely
exiting our area a little after midnight.

Model guidance continues to hint at a deeper shortwave moving into
the area with the 500 mb jet nosing into central KS by Sunday
afternoon. Low-level moisture will increase on Sunday morning and
continue into the afternoon which may result in drizzle and low-
level clouds especially in southern KS. The warm front is progged to
set up in Oklahoma with 850-700 mb WAA ahead and along the front. If
low clouds and drizzle continue into the afternoon, this could
increase CIN and limit some storm chances. Additionally, recent
model guidance suggests the next upper shortwave will move into
western KS around 06z. However, a surface low looks to develop in
western KS along with a triple point which could serve as a focus
for storm initiation. Storms would then move east/northeast
likely into central/north-central KS. Better instability looks
possible for Sunday with up to 2500 J/kg across our area. This
combined with 50 kts of effective shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates would be efficient for severe storms. Large hail and
damaging winds would be the primary threats but a few tornadoes
cannot be ruled out though better chances would likely be
closer to the triple point. Guidance suggests that storms could
grow upscale into a cluster of storms moving through northern KS
which would transition more to a wind threat late Sunday night.
Uncertainty continues to remain high as severe storms and
coverage is highly conditional. Stay tuned for additional
forecast updates.

As we move into early next week, showers and storms could continue
into Monday morning in northern Kansas as the upper wave continues
to move east. Drier air is likely to move in on Monday afternoon and
continue into Wednesday, resulting in a break in active weather to
start the week. Mostly zonal flow aloft is progged to move in late
Monday night and continue through much of the work week. Shower and
storm chances may return to the forecast late in the work week as
upper shortwaves move into the region. Mild temperatures are
expected through much of the work week with most of the area
seeing high temperatures close to normal in the upper 60s and
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Southeasterly winds between 10-15 knots will persist through the
afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorm chances will increase
from west to east after 21Z with chances diminishing between
03-06Z. IFR to LIFR cigs and reduced vis are expected after 06Z
and are expected to continue through the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...AMD