Topeka, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

127
FXUS63 KTOP 142311
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
511 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold airmass lingers through tonight before brief warmup commences
  tomorrow - Friday.

- Widespread arctic air arrives behind a strong cold front
  Friday night, plummeting highs into the low teens Sunday and
  Monday. Minimum wind chill values may fall to as low as 15 to
  20 degrees below zero through Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Broad open troughing aloft this afternoon as northwesterly flow
continues to funnel colder air into the region. The front is
currently positioned towards the OK/KS border, clearing cloud cover
behind the boundary over northeast Kansas with a steady northeast
wind at 10 mph, making it feel like temps are in the teens through
late afternoon. Calmer conditions return this evening as high
pressure slides southeast along the MO river. Coldest temps are
expected here with the clear skies in place by sunrise, averaging
around 0 degrees. Across north central Kansas, slightly higher wind
speeds and increasing mid clouds should mitigate fog development
with the most likely formation where clouds are currently observed
from approximately Russell to Phillipsburg.

Warmer southerly flow (Wednesday) to westerly flow on Thursday
ushers in warmer temps and hopefully decent snow melt though the end
of the work week. Highs tomorrow will likely peak at the freezing
level for much of the CWA while Thursday could see 40s, given the
h85 temps above freezing. Would not be surprised for areas south of
I-35 to see low 50s on Friday as maximum downsloping warm advection
is noted area wide. I am leaning towards the 75th percentile on
the NBM for highs Friday as some compressional warming is
likely to occur just ahead of the wind shift to the northwest in
the afternoon.

The main surge of arctic air arrives Saturday afternoon as northerly
winds increase from 15 to 20 mph sustained, bringing wind chills
down to the low teens and single digits during the daytime hours.
Ensemble percentiles heading into Sunday through early next week
indicate a decent spread in temps in the 25th-75th percentile, as
much as 15 degree spread Monday and Tuesday mornings. Both
percentiles however are in the dangerous cold category with minimum
wind chills from 10 to 20+ degrees below zero, lending to high
confidence in dangerously cold temperatures through Tuesday,
possibly Wednesday as well as the sfc ridge axis shifts east.
Afternoon highs are similar, ranging from single digits below zero,
up to 10 degrees above zero. Plan to monitor trends this week and
the need for cold headlines by early next week.  Recovery from the
extreme cold looks to not arrive until the following Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the period, along with
light and variable winds. The one area to watch is an area of fog
and low stratus currently over central Kansas. This is expected to
stay west of KMHK through Wednesday morning, but could bring
some IFR to MVFR ceilings by the afternoon if it can hold
together. Also a low chance of some brief and shallow mist/fog
farther east in the river valley towards KTOP near sunrise.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Reese