Garden City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

867
FXUS63 KDDC 232232
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
432 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog are possible over south central Kansas Wednesday
  morning.

- Near record highs are possible for Christmas Day.

- Temperatures Sunday and Monday will drop to near seasonal
  averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Upper level ridging will gradually shift east of the high plains
by this weekend as upper level troughs progress across the
northern plains. Ahead of the associated cold front, warm
weather is predicted through Friday (mainly 60s and 70s for
highs), with only slightly cooler readings for Saturday (60s for
highs). The strongest downslope warming for Wednesday and
Thursday is now forecast to the along and south of the Oklahoma
state line as a result of semi-permanent, orographically forced,
surface low pressure over southeastern Colorado that is common
in quiescent synoptic patterns. Deep vertical mixing will be
inhibited across much of southwestern Kansas except for the far
southwest corner. This may keep temperatures from reaching
their potential except at Elkhart where lower 80s are possible.
Nevertheless, it will still be mild and the stronger southwest
winds should stay in the Panhandles, resulting in lighter winds
and pleasant weather over Kansas. Near record highs are still
forecast for Christmas Day, with the previous record being 75
degrees at Dodge City.

Temperatures are forecast to fall back to near seasonal average
levels by Sunday and Monday in the wake of the aforementioned
cold front, with highs in the 40s for Sunday and Monday and lows
in the 20s. The arctic air is forecast to remain well north and
east of the Kansas high plains. No rain is forecast over the
next week to ten days given the lack of upper level troughing
over the southwestern United States. Upper level ridging, zonal
flow and northwesterly upper level flow are normally dry
synoptic patterns in winter. The ensemble means show no
precipitation through the end of December, with measurable
chances near 0%.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 427 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Moisture advection will continue across the eastern portion of the
forecast area. Dewpoints in the 40s are expected through the overnight
hours. This moisture along with light winds will set the stage for
fog development after midnight and through the morning hours. Have
the highest confidence of LIFR/FG for KHYS. Went with MVFR conditions
for KDDC, although it is not completely clear how far west the dense
fog will make it at this point in time. Will watch for any trends
this evening and adjust if necessary. VFR conditions should prevail
for both KLBL and KGCK. Winds will be light SE/S tonight and become
light SW tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Despite the warm weather on Wednesday and Thursday, the
stronger southwest winds are forecast to be south of Kansas.
This will cut down on vertical mixing and drying. Thus, fire
weather will be elevated but not critical.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST
Wednesday for KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Finch