Garden City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

942
FXUS63 KDDC 160649
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
149 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected along
  the I-70 corridor this evening.

- Isolated severe t-storms are forecast across central Kansas
  for Sunday and Monday evenings.

- Expect strong southwest winds Sunday and Monday afternoons,
  with enhanced fire weather concerns.

- Hot weather will persist through Monday, with cooler
  conditions for Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Today`s thunderstorm forecast is rather complicated and depends
on how much low level moisture wraps around a thermal low over
the southern high plains. Also, the location of a frontal zone
where winds change from southerly to easterly is in question.
Given moderately high cloud bases and long, straight hodographs,
damaging bow echoes are possible after any short-lived
supercells with very large hail grow upscale, with winds up to
70 mph being the primary concern, along with hail. The day 1
outlook from SPC indicates a slight risk for damaging winds and
hail, with best chances along I-70. Storms will form in
northwest Kansas by 5 pm and then sweep across the I-70 corridor
between 6 and 10 pm. Isolated storms can`t be ruled out father
south if the boundary stays across southwest Kansas.
Additionally, a 50 kt low level jet will form in the evening
around 8 pm and this could help in storm organization and
severity. Winds will start out on the light side in the
afternoon but then increase to 25 kts by dark.

On Sunday, an upper level storm will be digging into the
Rockies. A dry line is expected to be situated from Hays to
Dodge City to Ashland in the afternoon. Isolated t-storm
formation is likely given the strong heating along the dry line
and lack of low cloudiness ahead of the dry line. The SPC
outlook indicates a conditions risk for supercell storms with
large hail, with a sharp cutoff in severe storm chances near
the 100th meridian (near Dodge City and WaKeeney). Hot and dry
conditions are forecast from Dodge City westward, with southwest
winds gusting to 45 mph and humidity around 5%. Highs could
reach into the upper 90s.

A strong upper level trough will approach the high plains Monday
afternoon, with a moist air mass in place east of Dodge City.
Isolated t-storms are again possible and these could be severe
with very large hail. However, there is still uncertainty in how
far west storms ignite. Dry, windy and hot weather can be
expected west of the dryline with highs in the mid 90s.

A cold front will race across western Kansas Monday evening and
night. A line of storms could form along the front over central
Kansas, with places like Larned and Stafford having the best
chances. A very strong pressure gradient will exist behind the
cold front, with winds gusting up to 50-60+ mph. Cooler weather
is predicted for Tuesday, with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Rain chances increase by Tuesday night and Wednesday as upper
level troughing develops across the central and northern
Rockies, with cool post frontal upslope over southwest Kansas.
The various ensemble suites have been inconsistent with
this pattern over the last several days, and this leads to
below average forecast confidence. However, any substantial
rains will be convective in nature and hence scattered, with the
grand ensemble showing 24 hr chances of .25" or greater of rain
only 10-20%.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Generally light winds will prevail through 00z. However, a low
level jet will form by 01-02z, with surface winds gusting to 35
kts through the end of the period (with the exception of KHYS).
There is a small chance (10-30%) of thunderstorms at the KHYS
terminal after 23z, with wind gusts 40-50 kts possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are likely from Dodge City and
Meade westward on Sunday and Monday afternoons and evenings,
with southwesterly wind gusts of 45 mph and extremely low
humidity in the 5 to 10% range. A wind shift to the northwest
is predicted for Monday evening and night, with gusts to 60 mph
possible. Thus, the fire weather risk may not taper off Monday
evening like it normally does after sunset.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for KSZ061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch
FIRE WEATHER...Finch