Garden City, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

310
FXUS63 KDDC 022225
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
525 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-normal temperatures are expected today amidst downsloping
  westerly winds.

- First opportunity for precipitation arrives Thursday morning
  from the south, but the northward extent of rainfall is in
  question.

- Peak precipitation probability, and expected QPF, is still
  anticipated Friday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
reveal a large longwave trough encompasses all areas west of the
Mississippi River, with a few embedded shortwaves emanating
through the flow. At the surface, weak high pressure is building
into the central plains in the wake of last night`s cold frontal
passage, which will facilitate a weakening of the winds through
the remainder of the day. Despite this, downsloping component of
the winds will support afternoon high warming into the low/mid
60s for most, while the far southeast zones/Red Hills approach
the low 70s. Overnight, winds will remain light and variable as
cloud cover advances northward ahead of a weak 500-mb shortwave
trough ejecting toward the central plains, with Thursday morning
lows ranging from the low 30s northwest to the mid 40s
southeast.

Early Thursday morning, high resolution short range guidance
indicates light rain will spread poleward into southwest KS
courtesy of theta-e advection and the aforementioned 500-mb
shortwave impulse, and continue into the early afternoon.
However, CAMs are not in agreement regarding its northward
extent. The 3-km NAM is much more bullish suggesting nearly all
zones will benefit, while the pessimistic HRRR resolves next to
nothing outside of the far southeast zones, and the NSSL-
WRF/WRF-ARW somewhere in between. Suffice to say, confidence is
low in how widespread the rainfall will be. Otherwise, skies
will be mostly cloudy for much of the area, save for the far
southwest zones, and afternoon high will range from the upper
50s northeast to the mid 60s southwest.

The good news is a considerably more robust opportunity for
precipitation remains apparent Friday through Saturday as the
large, upper level longwave trough axis slowly inches eastward
and emerges onto the High Plains. According to the NBM, the peak
of the event in terms of probability of precipitation will be
Friday afternoon into the early Saturday morning hours as pops
are in the definite category (75-100%) for all zones.
Unfortunately, medium range ensembles have trended down a bit
regarding total QPF as the GEFS and ECMWF EPS are now suggesting
0.3-0.8" of QPF across southwest KS. This is reflected in NBM
probability of QPF > 0.5" in the 50-80% range for all areas.
Additionally, precipitation may switch to snow on Saturday,
especially across the northwest zones, as a stronger cold
airmass reaches the central plains on the tail end of the
precipitation event, however little to no winter impacts are
expected at this time. Beyond Saturday, ensembles agree upper
level ridging will build over the western CONUS, which would
promote as dry, warming trend across southwest KS through the
end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

There will be some mid level clouds tonight that will erode. VFR is
still expected. W to NW winds 5-15 kt expected tonight. A weather
disturbance will move in from the south with shra/vcsh expected across
the terminals. Cigs may go down to MVFR in this activity. SE winds
will increase 15-25 kt during the day.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Sugden