Atchison, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

918
FXUS63 KEAX 041117
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
617 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and less humid conditions today and Thursday, with highs in
  the mid 70s.

- Showers and storms return to the forecast Thursday night
  through Friday. The strongest activity should stay south
  across southeastern KS into southern MO.

- Generally dry Saturday with spotty precipitation chances early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Light rain will continue to shift east through the morning hours.
This activity is behind the surface front but ahead of the mid-level
shortwave trough. As such, just expected scattered showers through
late in the morning in our eastern zones as the mid-level wave
shifts east with time. Otherwise, pleasant conditions will prevail
today and Thursday with northerly winds advecting cooler and drier
air into the region. This will result in highs in the mid 70s both
days and lows ranging from the mid 50s in northern MO to the low 60s
in central MO Thursday morning.

Thursday night into Friday, precipitation chances return to the
forecast. The front that moved through the area stalls to our south
and becomes diffuse. But that front may provide enough of a focus
for storms develop in western KS and OK. With generally westerly
upper-level flow prevailing due to the subtropical jet moving
north of an upper ridge over Mexico, storm motions take the bulk
of this activity to southeastern KS and southern MO. Our
current forecast shows the highest PoPs roughly along and south
of the Missouri river, with decreasing PoPs further north. Given
the cooler and drier conditions Thursday, there will be limited
instability to work with, especially compared to southern MO
much stronger instability will be present. So while we have
fairly high PoPs in the southern half of the forecast area, the
threat of anything severe looks fairly low. Rain amounts along
and south of the river will range from half an inch to around an
inch in our far southern zones. North of the river, rain
amounts drop off quickly with possibly just a few hundredths to
few tenths of an inch.

Dry weather looks likely Saturday with temperatures climbing into
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Spotty precipitation chances return for
early next week. Ensemble mean 500mb heights show an upper-level low
moving into the Great Lakes region. This pushes a front into the
region which may bring showers a few storms to the area Sunday into
Monday. The best chance for storms looks like Sunday afternoon and
evening as the front moves into several thousand J/kg of CAPE in the
forecast area. Deep-layer shear looks fairly marginal at this point
so the threat of severe weather looks low. As that front moves south
Sunday night, high pressure fills in behind it and that will likely
inhibit additional precipitation chances through the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

There is a mix of VFR conditions north, to IFR south, currently
as the drier air slowly push southward. Thinking that conditions
will become VFR at all sites within 2 hours of forecast
issuance. Light northerly winds will become light northeasterly
later this morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...CDB