Atchison, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

721
FXUS63 KEAX 021058
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are expected for the remainder of the overnight
  into mid morning Wednesday. Damaging winds, large hail, and
  heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes will be the main risks.

- Gusty winds around 30-40 mph are expected to continue through
  this afternoon. Isolated gusts above 45 mph are possible.

- The pattern remains active with daily chances for rain through
  Sunday. Colder air will begin to filter into the region over
  the weekend with a rain/snow mix possible Saturday night into
  Sunday morning.

- Frost and freeze potential Sunday night and Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a large upper trough covering much
of the western CONUS and broad southwesterly flow over the
plains into the Mississippi valley. A jet streak was rounding
the base of the trough over the southern plains with diffluent
flow across the CWA. Lower in the atmosphere, a very strong low
level jet out of the southwest with 50-70 kts. Regional and
local radar show a couple waves of strong-severe convection. The
first area of strong to severe convection was quickly lifting
northeast and out of the CWA. The second round was more linear,
but with some embedded supercell structures. Most of this was
current over the TOP CWA but shifting east northeast into
northwestern portions of our CWA. Shear and thermal profiles
will be sufficient to maintain the severe weather risk through
the remainder of the night through Wednesday mid morning as the
surface low lifts northeast and front pushes east through the
area. Strong 0-3km shear vectors from the southwest would favor
mesovorts developing along any bowing segments as this
convection moves through, so all modes of severe weather will be
possible this morning. A tornado watch has been issued to
account for these risks through 10 am.  In addition to the
severe risk, any training of storms from southwest to northeast
could produce some localized excessive rainfall and flooding.
Gusty winds are also expected today across the area with some
gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible.

With the upper flow remaining out of the southwest several
rounds of convection will remain possible into the weekend as
waves of energy lift northeast into the forecast area. The best
moisture axis will shift southeast of the area after today`s
convection, but does lift back northward on Friday which will
bring additional high pops (70-100%) by Friday afternoon.

As we begin to head later into the weekend, the main upper
trough will finally begin to swing through the area and the
precipitation chances will come to an end, but not before some
cooler air begins to filter into the region offering a rain/snow
mix potential for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

There will be a frost/freeze potential as we head into Sunday
night and Monday night as temperatures dip to freezing and
slightly below both nights. The cooler air should be fairly
short lived however as temperatures warm back into the 60s and
70s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

For the 12z TAFS, heaviest convection is almost through the
terminal locations and should be by 12-13z and should improve
flight conditions to VFR once it is through. Winds will become
the primary aviation hazard after 13z with some gusts over 30
kts out of the southwest for much of the day. Gusts should
diminish after 01-02z and become light after 07z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...WFO EAX