Fort Myers, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

082
FXUS62 KTBW 121101
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
701 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region today. The
gradient remains weak with the ridge axis generally across the
central Florida peninsula. This flow again promotes highest pops
over the interior and southwest Florida...which is also the region
of best available deep layer moisture. Drier air aloft over the
Nature coast combined with onshore boundary layer flow will inhibit
convection in that region this afternoon. From Tampa south, deep
layer moisture will be on the increase early today which will
enhance convective instability and should trigger scattered
shower/thunderstorm development along the west coast sea breeze
boundary during the late morning/early afternoon...which hasn`t been
the case the past several days due to relatively dry mid level air.

The west/east coast sea breeze boundaries will push slowly inland
today with the boundaries colliding over the interior during the
mid/late afternoon hours increasing shower/thunderstorm activity.
Southwest Florida will be on the south side of the ridge axis with
light southeast flow to start the day. This will hold the west coast
sea breeze boundary closer to the coast with increasing
shower/thunderstorm activity during the early/mid afternoon. Due to
the weak overall flow and slow storm movement, locally heavy rain
will be possible.

Significant pattern change late this weekend as Sunday will be a
transition day. Deep layer moisture will be on the increase across
all of west central and southwest Florida ahead of an approaching
U/L low east of the area. Highest pops on Sunday should remain over
the interior and southwest Florida as boundary layer flow will
remain weak. Locally heavy rain will again be possible due to the
slow storm movement.

Early next week, the U/L low will move over the Florida peninsula
and there will also be increasing onshore boundary layer flow off of
the warm Gulf waters. Deep tropical moisture with PCPW values above
2 inches will advect over the entire forecast area and will bring a
significantly greater chance of showers/storms to all of west
central and southwest Florida due to the enhanced large scale lift
associated with the U/L low. Locally heavy rain will be
possible...and WPC has all of west central and southwest Florida
in a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for excessive rainfall both Monday
and Tuesday.

The U/L low will move over the eastern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday
with a weak non-tropical area of low pressure possibly developing.
This will create deep south to southeast flow over west central and
southwest Florida on the east side of this system.
This will continue to create favorable conditions for widespread
showers/storms each day with locally heavy rain possible each day.

Thursday will be another transition day as the area of low
pressure moves away from the region...and a more typical
summertime easterly flow pattern develops in its wake. This will
drop POPs Friday and Saturday back down to around climo
levels...with the best chance of rain likely over the coastal
counties during the mid/late afternoon each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions currently at the TAF sites this morning.
Showers/storms will develop later this afternoon around 19-20z.
Based on latest guidance and moisture increasing across the
region, included VCTS at all of the terminal sites. Any ongoing
convection should come to an end near sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025
High pressure will hold over the waters through the weekend with
winds and seas below cautionary levels. An area of low pressure
may develop over the eastern Gulf early next week which could
increase winds and seas to around exercise caution levels. Main
hazard through the weekend will be scattered showers/thunderstorms
which will be capable of producing locally gusty winds and rough
seas...with most likely timing during the evening and late
night/early morning hours. Next week, there will be an increase in
the areal coverage of shower/thunderstorm activity as an U/L low
moves over the region. This will increase the risk for hazardous
conditions for small craft on the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above
critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  80  92  79 /  40  20  40  30
FMY  94  77  93  77 /  70  30  70  30
GIF  95  77  94  76 /  50  20  70  30
SRQ  91  77  91  77 /  40  20  40  30
BKV  93  74  92  74 /  40  10  50  30
SPG  90  79  90  78 /  40  20  40  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle