Thornton, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

121
FXUS65 KBOU 120008
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
608 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier and warmer weather through Wednesday. Elevated fire
  weather concerns Wednesday and Thursday.

- Moisture increases sufficiently for a chances of storms most
  areas Friday through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Monday/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Isolated thunderstorms had formed over the Palmer Divide this
afternoon, drifting south/southeast. It`s not entirely impossible
one or two will develop off the Cheyenne Ridge as well, but
overall the airmass on the rest of the plains is strongly capped.
And it should stay that way through this evening given the cap`s
current strength and weak synoptic scale subsidence in place.

On Tuesday, the airmass will remain fairly dry and capped, but
still enough heating to weaken the cap over the mountains and
Palmer Divide. So we`ll have some low precip chances there.
Temperatures will warm further, with highs pushing into the mid to
upper 80s over the plains and I-25 Corridor.

Wednesday and Thursday are still shaping up to be the hottest days
of the week ahead as the upper level and thermal ridges shift
eastward across the state. That will support highs reaching the
mid to upper 90s across plains and I-25 Corridor, with a few of
the lower spots near 100F by Thursday as 700 mb temps near 20C.
A couple high based showers/weak storms/virga expected both days
given less capping, although Thursday should see a slight uptick
in coverage with moisture sneaking around the periphery of the
ridge.

That moisture is still forecast to increase by Friday as the upper
level ridge axis shifts east into the Central and Southern Plains.
That support higher shower and storm coverage, although they`ll
still be relatively high based on the plains due to the very warm
airmass in place. Nonetheless, the increased clouds and storms
will likely take a few degrees off from Thursday`s highs. The
chance of storms may very well linger through the weekend, as
there are hints of a shortwave eventually kicking across the
Rockies. If that shortwave comes to fruition, then Monday would
trend drier again as any monsoonal moisture plume shifts eastward
with the passage of the trough. Temperatures will remain at or
slightly above normal for this period.

Finally, with regard to smoke we`ve cleaned things out pretty
nicely with the more northerly flow over the last couple days.
However, as the ridge axis shifts back eastward, we may start to
see smoke increase again late this week, depending of course on
fire behavior and any new starts to our west. Also, fire weather
concerns will pick up a little with the heat and dryness Wednesday
and Thursday, but overall wind forecasts are on the lower end of
any critical thresholds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 606 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Models indicate light, normal drainage wind patterns will prevail
at DIA overnight.  There will be no ceiling issues.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION.....rjk