Centennial, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

585
FXUS65 KBOU 130655
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1155 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy in the mountains and breezy on the plains overnight into
  Wednesday morning.

- Light mountain snow showers will be likely, decreasing by dawn
  Wednesday morning.

- A few mixed rain and snow showers over the eastern half of the
  plains overnight, ending before dawn Wednesday morning.

- Dry Wednesday through Friday with warmer temperatures
  Thursday and Friday.

- Chance for mountain snow on Saturday.

- A system could arrive on Monday with a chance of mixed precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

Water vapor picture are indicating the upper trough axis is
over the CWA at this time. Observations are showing the western
three-quarters of the CWA with northwesterly winds in place.
There are still scattered rain showers over eastern Weld, Morgan,
eastern Adams, eastern Arapahoe, Elbert and western Washington
Counties at this this. The showers were moving slowly
southeastward and were weakening. There were also light snow
showers in place over the high country.

Models have the scattered showers over the plains moving eastward
and decreasing the rest of tonight with nothing by dawn Wednesday
morning.  Some orographic enhancement should keep light snow
likely over the high mountains until early Wednesday morning.
Accumulations will be light with the highest amounts over Zone 31
where the Snow Advisory will continue. Snow is expected to end
in the mountains by around 12Z Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 225 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

KFTG is back! Just in time to help us see our next approaching storm
system. Current radar observations show some weak echoes starting to
push east into our mountains this afternoon. A Winter Weather
Advisory went into effect at 2PM today and will continue until 5AM
tomorrow morning for Rabbit Ears Pass. Snowfall accumulations
between 4 and 8 inches are expected with some higher accumulations
at our highest elevations. The highest elevations of the Medicine
Bow Mountains, Indian Peaks, and Gore Range are expected to see
2-7 inches overnight tonight.

For the lower elevations, we increased PoPs slightly across portions
of the plains where hi-res models continued to show light
accumulations as the shortwave trough pushes east across Colorado
tonight. Temperatures continue to be tricky with the snowpack
glacier over Lincoln and Elbert Counties. Today, southeasterly winds
across the plains brought cold air into northern Adams County via a
northeasterly cyclone setup that kept temperatures in the 30s
instead of the expected 50s. This may impact whether snow falls in
these locations tonight. Went with light rain showers, but suspect
we may have a period of some mixed precipitation or even some light
snow showers in the areas where temperatures remained cooler today.
Overall, with downsloping westerly winds expected tonight, we still
aren`t expecting much but some light rain/snow showers across the
plains, ending early tomorrow morning.

Subsidence will quickly move in behind the exiting trough tomorrow
morning ending any lingering mountain showers by noon and clearing
the skies by late morning. Windy conditions will improve
throughout the day. Temperatures will continue to be tricky while
the snowpack remains over our southern plains, but expect near
normal temperatures in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 225 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

By Wednesday evening, a flat upper level ridge will be over the
Rocky Mountain area. This will bring night-time temperatures down to
the upper 20`s/lower 30`s for most of the region, except for the
Palmer Ridge where snow packed areas could see temperatures in the
low 20`s. Dry conditions are expected under this ridge.

As the ridge moves eastward through Thursday, warm and dry
conditions will prevail. Most of the area will see temperatures as
high as the lower 60`s, while the Palmer Ridge could see
temperatures in the upper 40`s as a result of the snow.

By Friday, an upper level trough will enter the western United
States, pushing the ridge eastward throughout the day. With the
southwest flow from the trough, there is a chance for breezy winds
for the Palmer Divide and eastern Plains in the afternoon into early
evening. Models are not agreeing on wind speed as of right now, but
those areas have a low chance to see winds up to 20 mph.
Temperatures could get up to upper 50`s/lower 60`s except for the
Palmer Ridge which could see temperatures in the upper 40`s.

As the upper level trough moves eastward on Saturday and Sunday, it
splits. One trough will travel over northern portions of the United
States, while the other trough will become a closed low over
southwestern United States into New Mexico. With the strong
southwest flow associated with the closed upper level low, there
could be breezy winds at the surface again Saturday afternoon for
the eastern Plains. There is also a chance for mountain snow. But
with limited moisture transport into the region and QPF of 0.10"
from the models, an accumulation of an inch or less is expected.
East of the Rocky Mountains could see temperatures in the upper
50`s, except for the Palmer Ridge, which would see cooler
temperatures in the 40`s. As for Sunday, temperatures could get up
to the upper 30`s and mid 40`s.

With the closed low moving northeast on Monday from New Mexico, we
have a chance for mixed precipitation for our area. The uncertainty
comes with the location and strength of the low, as clusters show
a couple of different scenarios. With a slower moving and more
amplified trough/closed low, we have a greater chance of seeing
mixed precipitation in our area. However, there is a chance that
closed low could be weaker than anticipated, resulting in limited
chances of precipitation. Lastly, the closed low could track more
east than northeast, which would also limit chances of
precipitation for Monday. The next couple of days should give more
clarity on the position and progression of the system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1152 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

VFR through Wednesday. There`s some uncertainty about wind
direction through Wednesday morning, especially at KDEN which will
be on the edge of 10-20 knot northwest winds on the plains, and
lighter mostly southerly winds over the city. It`s likely that
there will be a period of north to northwest winds overnight, and
then southerly winds developing before 18z, but what happens in
between is hard to tell. Best bet is in the current TAF wind winds
becoming lighter by 12z and then southerly by 15z.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for COZ031.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......RJK
SHORT TERM...Bonner
LONG TERM....Danielson/Ideker
AVIATION...Gimmestad