Centennial, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

724
FXUS65 KBOU 120005
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
605 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds up to 50 mph from high based-showers and
  thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.

- Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms continues Thursday
  and Friday.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible over the northeast
  plains Friday and Saturday.

- Warming trend through Sunday with the warmest temperatures this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already formed over the
higher terrain. They will spread eastward through the afternoon
and early evening hours. Moisture isn`t that great with dew points
in the mid 30s to mid 40s across the Front Range. MLCAPE stays
under 700 J/kg and shear will be weak, so we are not expecting any
organized thunderstorm activity. Because of the large
temperature/dew point spread (inverted V sounding), gusty outflow
winds will be the main threat. A couple severe gusts will be
possible, but most of the gusts will be under 50 mph. The showers
and storms come to an end by early to mid evening as the air
stabilizes.

Much of the same is in store for Thursday with weak ridging
overhead leading to warm temperatures, weak winds aloft (low
shear), and limited moisture. South-southeast winds develop over
Nebraska and Kansas Thursday. These winds creep into eastern
Colorado increasing low level moisture and shear. It`s this area
that will be more favorable for severe thunderstorms with MLCAPE
1500 J/kg. Farther west for much of the area, weaker high based
showers and thunderstorms are expected again with gusty outflow
winds to 50 mph.

On Friday, the ridging flattens some, increasing the flow aloft.
Westerly flow aloft increases over the western half of Colorado
bringing drier air to the mountains. Over the eastern half of
Colorado, southeast winds advance westward to roughly the I-25
corridor by early afternoon, Dew points over the eastern plains
reach the 50s leading to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Southeast winds
under an increasing west flow aloft should result in enough shear
for supercell thunderstorms. This unstable airmass will likely
stay east of the I-25 corridor. However, there looks to be enough
moisture for weak high-based showers and thunderstorms again.
Temperatures will continue to be warm with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s across northeast Colorado.

For the weekend, ridging aloft intensifies over the Central and
Southern Rockies. Highs are expected to warm into the 90s over
northeast Colorado. Across most of the area, limited moisture and
instability combined with warming aloft will result in dry
conditions or very weak convection. Easterly winds will hold
moisture over far eastern/northeastern Colorado with MLCAPE of
2000- 3000 J/kg. This will lead to a severe weather threat where
the higher dew points (greater than 50) reside.

The ridge slides off to the east next week, as an upper level
trough pushes inland from the Pacific. Highs temperatures cool
into the 80s across northeast Colorado by Tuesday. Still a little
too early to tell how much moisture will be in place. Southwest
flow aloft ahead of the trough should keep drier air over the
region. The best moisture will continue to be over the eastern
plains at times when we see surges of easterly winds. As far as
PoPs go, will have 10-30 across the area each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR through the TAF period. Last cluster of showers is moving
across DEN at the moment, though there has been a gradual
weakening trend with the few microbursts that have been observed
by TDEN. Still think there could be a few more gusts through about
0030-0045z, but overall convective activity should quickly
diminish over the next hour or two. Drainage winds will be quick
to develop this evening and should persist through tomorrow
morning.

Another similar convective pattern is forecast for Thursday, with
variable/gusty winds as the main convective hazard during the
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meier
AVIATION...Hiris