Willits, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

591
FXUS66 KEKA 092153
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
253 PM PDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and calm weather will continue Thursday with very
light rain and drizzle along the far North Coast Thursday afternoon.
Cool and breezy but dry conditions will build Friday through
Saturday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:
-Warm and calm weather for the interior continues Thursday.

-Moderate Southerly wind and light rain for Del Norte Thursday
afternoon.

-Cooler conditions and gusty north wind Friday and Saturday,
especially near shore.


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge has built over the area, promoting
clear skies and warm temperatures. Coastal highs have reach near 60
this afternoon with many inland valleys soaring into the upper 70s.
A strengthening marine inversion may allow for an inconsistent marine
layer to form overnight.

Similar weather will continue during the day Thursday before a weak
front crosses the area Thursday night into Friday. Southerly winds
ahead of the front will be weak with the gusts briefly reaching
around 25 mph. There is a slight chance of coastal drizzle along the
front, especially if a marine layer ends up forming, but wetting
rain will be mostly restricted to Del Norte County where 0.2 to 0.4
inches of rain is most likely. Any rain and drizzle that falls will
most likely occur mid Thursday afternoon between about noon and
1700.

Drier, though cooler weather will quickly return behind the front
Friday and Saturday. The strongest winds are actually most likely
Friday and Saturday as high pressure rapidly rebuilds across the
Pacific and enhances the pressure gradient along shore. Northwest
gusts along shore Friday and Saturday afternoons will most likely
peak around 35 mph in wind favored areas. NBM even indicates a 50 to
70% chance of isolated gusts over 40 mph Saturday afternoon.

Calmer and warmer weather will return mid next week as ridging
builds back over the area bringing the threat of a coastal marine
layer. There is some indication a weak shortwave brining another
round of cooler conditions and drizzle by mid next week. /JHW

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND DEVIATIONS: There is relatively high
confidence in the current forecast without much model deviation. The
greatest uncertainty in the short term is for rainfall on Thursday.
Although the most likely forecast shows a few tenths of an inch in
Del Norte, about 40% of NBM ensemble members show no more than
drizzle with less than 0.1 inches of rain actually falling.

In the long term, the greatest potential for uncertainty is
regrading how ridging later this weekend will gradually break down.
Right now, most ensemble members show a weak shortwave crossing
Wednesday but only about 20% show any wetting rain associated with
it. /JHW

&&

.AVIATION...Light NW winds prevail beneath scattered high level cloud cover
at the coastal terminals. Marine stratus has stayed largely offshore
with occasional mist/haze observed. Winds expected to shift
southerly late tonight ahead of an approaching upper shortwave
trough. Marine stratus will likely envelop most of the north coast
with light nearshore SSW flow, producing IFR/LIFR ceilings and viz
through Thursday morning. SW winds will steadily increase as this
shortwave and associated surface front approach the coast. Gusts 20
to 25 knots are possible at both coastal terminals as ceilings lift
into MVFR, with very light showers possible in the afternoon. UKI
will experience similarly gusty winds out of the NW at the trailing
edge of the frontal boundary.


&&

.MARINE...The sea state consists of light NW breezes and a decaying
long period NW swell as a high pressure ridge builds overhead. Gusts
around 12 to 15 knots are possible downwind and nearshore of Cape
Mendocino today, keeping the marine fog layer in the outer waters
until late tonight - areas of patchy dense fog nearshore are
possible overnight. Winds will turn southerly and begin to increase
early Thursday morning ahead of another approaching shortwave.
Moderate to fresh southerly breezes are expected in the northern and
outer waters, with a brief period of gusts 25 to 30 knots possible
just after 18Z (around 50% probability of gusts 30 knots). This fast
moving system will be followed by broad upper level troughing. High
confidence for persistent northerlies and steep wind waves 10 to 12
feet dominating the sea state this weekend as a tightening pressure
gradient develops along the coast. NBM has high probabilities for
sustained gales and gusts exceeding 40 knots beginning Saturday
morning and persisting through Sunday. Gusts approaching 50 knots are
possible in the southern waters downwind of the Cape.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for
     PZZ450-470.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png