Watts, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

430
FXUS66 KLOX 122117
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
217 PM PDT Sat Apr 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...12/215 PM.

A gradual cooling trend is expected into early next week, then
more significant cooling will take place by late next week.
Night through morning low clouds and fog will become a staple of
the forecast, pushing into the coastal slopes of the mountains by
mid week. A cold upper level low pressure systems is forecast to
bring showers to the area on Friday, and even a thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out at that time.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...12/207 PM.

Some marine layer clouds lingered along and off the L.A./VTU
County coast early this afternoon. These clouds should persist
along the coast thru sunset, and even expand inland some early
this evening. Elsewhere and otherwise, mostly sunny skies with
some hi clouds at times can be expected through this afternoon.
Breezy to gusty W-SW winds can be expected this afternoon as
onshore gradients increase thru the day. Temps this afternoon will
be several degrees above normal inland and a few degrees below
normal along the coast. The warmest vlys will reach the mid 70s to
low 80s, except mid 80s in the Antelope Vly.

Weak upper level troffiness and an upper level low will move into
the area tonight and Sun, with H5 heights falling to around
572-574 dam by Sun afternoon. Upper level troffiness overall will
persist over SW CA Sun nigh thru Tue, with H5 heights generally in
the 571-574 dam range.

The marine inversion is expected to be in the 1200-1500 ft range
for the most part tonight thru Tue. Overall, it looks like a
marine layer pattern will prevail across the forecast area during
the period, with varying amounts of night and morning low clouds
and fog along the coast and into many of the vlys, clearing back
to the coast each afternoon. Many of the beaches should have only
partial afternoon clearing. Otherwise, clear to partly cloudy
skies with some hi clouds at times can be expected.

Sundowner northerly winds should affect SW SBA County this
evening, with local gusts up to 45 mph. Otherwise, winds through
Tue should be generally weak during the night and morning hours,
with breezy S to W winds in the afternoon and early evening.

Temps should cool down slightly for Sun and Mon, with inland
areas remaining several degrees above normal, and coastal and some
adjacent vlys around or a few degrees below normal. By Tue,
further cooling from the coast to the coastal slopes should
prevail, while the interior vlys, mtns and deserts remain a few
deg above normal. Highs on Sun and Mon for the warmest vlys and
lower mtns should be in the mid 70s to around 80, except lower to
mid 80s in the Antelope Vly, then fall to the lower to mid 70s on
Tue, except to around 80 in the Antelope Vly.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...12/211 PM.

The models are in mostly good agreement in the extended period.
An upper level low off the SW CA coast will move NE and inland
late Wed and Wed night. On Thu, a significant and cold upper level
low will move into the northern and central Great Basin, then
quickly dive S and into southern and eastern CA on Fri. The EC is
further E compared to the GFS, so there is some uncertainty in the
exact track of the upper level low, but both models do bring in
some precip to the area on Fri. The upper level low will move E of
the region on Sat with a broad NW to N flow aloft.

The marine layer pattern will persist Wed and Thu with varying
amounts of night and morning low clouds for the coast and vlys,
possible even up to the coastal slopes. Otherwise partly cloudy
skies overall can be expected. For Fri, the proximity of the
upper level low will bring the slight chance to chance of showers,
mostly in the afternoon hours. The cold air aloft will also
contribute to increased instability with the potential for a few
thunderstorms especially over the mtns and deserts. A lot depends
on the exact track of the upper level low, and we should have
increased confidence in this with additional model runs as we draw
closer to the middle of next week. However, it does look like at
least some showers should affect portions of the forecast area on
Fri. Any leftover showers will end Fri evening, with dry and
milder conditions expected on Sat.

Temps are expected to be several deg below normal for most areas
Wed, then cool to significantly below normal for mid-April on Thu
and Fri before turning a bit warmer on Sat, but remaining a few
deg below normal for the most part. The warmest day during the
extended period should be next Sat with the warmest vlys and
lower mtns reaching the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...12/2024Z.

At 1838Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 900 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was around 2500 ft with a temp of 18 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs, moderate confidence in KPRB, and
low to moderate confidence in remainder of sites. Timing of flight
cat changes may be off by +/- 3 hours, with cigs arriving at
KOXR, KCMA, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB as early as 21Z. Cigs may arrive
and scatter multiple times before remaining at the TAF site after
06Z. There is a 30% chc of VLIFR conds at KSBP and KSMX. IFR conds
are possible upon arrival at sites south of Point Conception,
lifting to low MVFR by 12Z-15Z Sun. Cigs may struggle to clear and
remain at the coastal TAF sites through the period.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance
that cigs arrive as early as 21Z, and scatter and reform
frequently until remaining at TAF site after 06Z. There is a 30%
chance of BKN008 conds until lifting to BKN010-015 after 12Z. There
is a 40% chance that cigs linger until 20Z Sun. No significant
east wind component expected thru the period.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance
that cigs this evening will arrive as early as 07Z and clear as
late as 19Z. There is a 30% chance of cigs arriving as BKN006 and
lifting to BKN010-015 by 12Z-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...12/131 PM.

For the outer waters, low-end GALE force wind gusts are expected
thru this evening. Thereafter, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level
winds and seas are expected thru Sunday, with SCA level seas
likely lingering into Sun evening. SCA conds are not expected late
Sun night thru Wed.

For the inner waters N of Pt Conception, SCA level seas will
likely continue thru tonight. Winds will likely (80% chance) reach
SCA levels this afternoon/eve, with a 20% chance of GALE force
gusts. SCA conds are not expected Sun thru Wed night.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level winds are likely (70%
chance) in western portions this afternoon thru late tonight, with
a 30% chance of SCA winds pushing into eastern portions. SCA
conds are not expected Sun thru Wed night.

For the southern inner waters, there is a 30% chance of SCA level
W-NW wind gusts this afternoon/eve from Anacapa Island to Malibu,
and a 20% chance of SCA winds pushing into the Santa Monica Basin
and across the outer portion of the zone. Otherwise, SCA conds
are not expected thru Wed night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 87-354-362-366-367. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sirard
AVIATION...Lund
MARINE...DB/Lund
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox