Valyermo, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

862
FXUS66 KLOX 302042
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
142 PM PDT Fri May 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...30/141 PM.

Cooler temperatures are expected this weekend but more humid
as tropical moisture moves over the region, also bringing a
chance for showers or a thunderstorm. Next week temperatures will
be near normal with a slow warm up mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...30/135 PM.

High pressure aloft briefly building in from the north along with
weakening onshore flow has indeed warmed temperatures, even at
most coastal areas with the exception of the Pismo/Cambria areas
where dense fog is very close by. Highs are getting into the 90s
across the inland areas and 80s away from the immediate coast.
The only possible record today would be Paso Robles where the
daily record is 102 and it`s 95 at 1pm. Woodland Hills record is
106 which won`t happen today but mid to high 90s is still
possible.

An upper low is still lingering just off the northern Baja coast
and it`s expected to remain there through the weekend. In
addition, Tropical Storm Alvin continues to weaken just south of
Cabo but is sending moisture up through northern Baja and by
later Saturday and Sunday into southern California as well.
Onshore flow will increase by as much as 5 mb Saturday which which
will cool ambient temperatures several degrees tomorrow, however
increasing moisture from the south will add some extra humidity,
especially south of Pt Conception, which would make it feel more
muggy than usual. Ensemble mean PW`s rise to around 1.2 inches
across LA County, peaking later Saturday night into Sunday
morning. That`s well above the 90th percentile so there is a
chance of showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm as the
moisture works its way north, best chances in LA County but
possibly Ventura County as well as the Transverse range through
Santa Barbara County. Showers would be scattered and not every
location will get rain. Amounts would mostly be light, especially
at lower elevations, as precip would be falling through a much
drier layer below 700mb. If convection develops hourly rates could
reach as high as a quarter inch, so at this point the chance for
any debris flows is under 5%. Mid and high cloud coverage will
also increase which will help trap some of the afternoon heat and
make the overnight hours a little warmer as well.

Moisture aloft will decrease rapidly Sunday night into Monday with
more typical weather expected early next week. Models continue to
show another semi-cutoff upper low drifting south along the
California coast Monday. Cooler temperatures are expected along
with a deepening marine layer.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...30/139 PM.

Overall a very quiet week of weather is expected as a trough
persists along the West Coast most of the week. Temperatures are
expected to be within a few degrees of normal with possibly a very
slow warm up mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...30/1714Z.

At 1658Z, the marine layer was 1700 feet deep at KLAX. The top of
the inversion was around 4000 feet with a temperature of 24 C.

Overall, low to moderate confidence in the 12Z TAF Package. High
confidence for desert and valley terminals and low for coastal
sites. Most uncertain in regards to cigs returning after 06Z Sat.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPRB, KPMD, and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KBUR and KVNY. Guidance is
suggesting flight cat restrictions by 08Z, however, with the
marine layer expected to shrink, going to keep VFR conds through
the period. 20% chance for LIFR to IFR conds 08Z to 16Z.

Low confidence in coastal TAFs. Low confidence in minimum flight
category for KSBA/KOXR/KCMA due to forecast SE winds potentially
lifting cloud decks more than guidance suggests. Flight cats may
be off by one cat once cigs are present, and flight cat changes
may be off +/- 3 hours. There is a 30% chance KSBP/KSBA remains
VFR through the period. There is a 10-20% chance for all other
sites to remain VFR through the period.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Arrival of cigs tonight may be off
+/- 2 hours. There is a 20% chance for OVC003-004 tonight. 10%
chance for VFR conds to prevail. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance for LIFR
to IFR conds between 08Z and 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...30/118 PM.

For the outer waters, moderate confidence in the forecast for the
remainder of today, then high confidence thereafter. Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) conditions are expected to linger into the evening
hours for PZZ670/673 today due to steep, short period seas.
Conditions are then expected to remain below SCA levels through
Sunday morning. Then there is a 50% chance for SCA conds Sunday
afternoon into the overnight hours, with slightly higher
confidence in seas reaching 10 ft than winds reaching 21 kts.
Thereafter, conditions look to remain below advisory criteria
through at least mid-week.

For the nearshore waters along the Central Coast, conditions are
expected to remain below SCA criteria through the middle of next
week. However, there is a 30% chance of local SCA level NW wind
gusts through this evening, and a 40% chance for SCA level seas
Sunday afternoon into late night.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, high confidence in conditions
remaining below SCA criteria through the middle of next week,
with the exception of a 20-30% chance of SCA level wind gusts
over western portion during the afternoon and evening hours on
Sunday.

For the Inner Waters off the Los Angeles and Orange County coasts,
high confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through
Tuesday. However, there is a 20% chance of SCA level wind gusts
nearshore around Mailbu this afternoon and early evening.

Brief, localized SCA wind gusts may occur across the coastal
waters Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning as an upper level
low pressure system off the coast of Baja California moves north
then east, with the heart of the system evading our waters. This
system brings a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon
through Sunday, especially south of Point Conception.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 38-88-343>345-358-372-373. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox