Tupman, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

954
FXUS66 KHNX 231823
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1020 AM PST Mon Dec 23 2024

...Updated Aviation Section...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Winter Storm Warning in effect from 7 AM to 7 PM Tuesday for
the Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet.

2. High Wind Warning for the Mojave Slopes and Wind Advisory for
the Mojave Desert from 1 PM Tuesday through 10 AM Wednesday.

3. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon for the San Joaquin
Valley. These thunderstorms can produce heavier amounts of rain
especially over burn scars.

4. A shortwave trough on Thursday into Friday brings more
chances of rain. A third trough is expected from Sunday to next
Monday with better chances of precipitation than the second
trough.

5. Fog chances return on Wednesday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Fog has not reared its ugly head yet this morning due to mixing
in the wake of the Saturday-Sunday trough and the big storm
approaching the California coasts. We have a small ridge over
the area today which will bring temperatures to above average
with a 35 to 90 percent chance of high temperatures of at least
65 degrees.

However, model ensembles have a strong agreement the next few
days with a big trough moving across California on Tuesday. The
Winter Weather Advisory has been upgraded to a Winter Storm
Warning for this storm above 6,000 feet as there is a 40 to 70
percent chance of 8 inches or more above 6,000 feet and a 15 to
50 percent chance of 12 inches or more of snow above 8,000 feet.
The Advisory was upgraded to a Warning also due to the Christmas
holiday. Down in the Valley, there is a 15 to 55 percent
probability of half an inch or more of rain in this storm with
the higher probabilities to the north. There also is a
potential for thunderstorms as there is a 10 to 70 percent
probability of Surface-based Convective Available Potential
Energy (SBCAPE) values of at least 200 J/kg for most of the
Valley with higher values towards the north and central
portions. This enhanced SBCAPE can produce thunderstorms and
heavier rainfalls which can majorly impact burn scars.

The trough will slide across the Center of California which will
line the winds perfectly with the Tehachapi Mountains that wind
gusts will significantly increase for the Mojave Slopes and
Desert. A High Wind Warning has been issued for the Slopes from
1 PM Tuesday through 10 AM Wednesday as there is a 10 to 45
percent chance of wind gusts of at least 60 mph on Tuesday night
between 7 PM and 1 AM. A Wind Advisory has also been issued for
the rest of eastern Kern County with a 10 to 25 percent
probability of wind gusts of at least 45 mph.

On Wednesday, the ensembles show a weak ridge forming over
California providing a brief reprieve. This ridge brings back
the potential of fog with the new available moisture. Ensembles
have a weak shortwave trough skirt across northern California
bringing some more rain and snow Thursday into Friday. There is
a 10 to 40 percent probability of 6 or more inches of snow
above 7,000 feet and a 10 to 55 percent probability of a tenth
of an inch or more of rain for the San Joaquin Valley.

Ensembles continue agreeing with a ridge building up on
Saturday keeping conditions dry with the potential of fog.
However, the ensembles indicate another trough moving across
northern California on Sunday through Monday bringing another
round of rain and snow. There was a slight difference between
the ensembles over the positioning and strength of this trough
on Monday but the latest runs have converged back together.
There also is a 15 to 40 percent probability of a tenth of an
inch of rain or more in the Valley with this third trough.

&&


.AVIATION...
18z Update:


VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours for the Sierra
Nevada, foothills, and eastern Kern County.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  12/22/2024 14:07
EXPIRES: 12/23/2024 23:59
On Monday December 23 2024,  Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Kern County.  Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning
For All in Kern County. No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno,
Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in
Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for
CAZ338.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for
CAZ337-339.
Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Tuesday for CAZ323-
326>330.
&&

$$

public/aviation.....JPK
idss/pio.........Proton

weather.gov/hanford