Topaz, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

025
FXUS65 KREV 290831
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
131 AM PDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cool and pleasant conditions this morning, lows near freezing in
  the Sierra valleys.

* Afternoon breezes return for the second half of this week with
  near normal summer temperatures and dry conditions for the
  holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Another chilly start, with another lobe of low pressure for today
spinning into the base of the trough that has been positioned
over the Western US over the weekend. The main concern for today
will be the 10-30% chance for a shower over the Sierra this
afternoon. There is a 15% chance that any given shower that forms
could contain lightning, small hail or gusty winds, so if you are
planning to recreate in the mountains south of US-50, keep an eye
on the sky and plan ahead for shelter in case a storm develops.
Instability is on the lower end, with MUCAPE values ranging
100-300 J/kg, but with a little help from topography, that may be
enough to support storm development. Moisture will be limited with
this low circulation, with PWAT only checking in around 0.3
inches, so these storms will offer little precipitation. Most CAMs
are showing storms developing along the western slopes of the
Sierra around 11 AM to noon today, then due to a lack of steering
associated with light upper winds, the storms meander in a south-
southwest direction after initiation. This would keep the
majority of the action from the crest and westward, but there are
a few solutions that show storms firing along and slightly east of
the crest.

After this wave moves through, we remain under a general troughing
pattern that will help to keep the temperatures closer to average
into late week. The troughing pattern will allow for another
shortwave to move through the meridional flow around Thursday, which
will also be moisture-starved. The main influence we expect will be
an enhanced zephyr for Thursday afternoon.

In the longer range forecast, the ridge builds back in over the west
for the holiday weekend, bringing mid 90s to near 100 to western
Nevada valleys and mid to upper 80s across the Sierra valleys. Long
range guidance also hints at yet another low carving a path across
the Pacific Northwest for the week following the holiday, but
confidence is low due to varying solutions at this time scale.

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions this morning, with potential (10-30%) for
  afternoon showers and storms to develop for KTVL/KBAN/KMMH
  between 19-20z. Showers and storms that develop may contain
  lightning, and may produce terrain obscurations.

HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$