Soledad, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

695
FXUS66 KMTR 101739
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
939 AM PST Sun Nov 10 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1250 AM PST Sun Nov 10 2024

Active pattern continues with a shift towards cooler temps and
increased moisture. Decent rain chances across the region Veterans
Day, and potentially later in the week as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM PST Sun Nov 10 2024

A steadily weakening 500 mb height trough and surface trough are
located approx 200-300 miles west of the Bay Area and north Central
Coast early this morning. The trough is weakening as it moves
through the eastern side of a broad and flat long wave ridge. Last
evening`s 00z Oakland upper air sounding showed 0.39" precipitable
water which is low (dry), near the 10th percentile. We`re still
stuck with a recently deposited continental air mass, surface
dewpoint temps are still low (dry). Interestingly, dry air is
molecularly heavier than water vapor therefore in a way it can be
difficult to dislodge dry air stuck within the complex CA terrain
and while (early) in the cool season with limited to no afternoon
sea breeze. Dry air is eventually always dislodged and precipitated
into when favorable atmospheric dynamics i.e. storm(s) along with
Pacific sourced water vapor return. At this time satellite shows
a few patches of low clouds, including high clouds (just east of
the 500 mb trough axis) over the coastal waters. With filtered
sun, highs today are forecast to reach the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM PST Sun Nov 10 2024

North in latitude of the aforementioned long wave ridge is a
broad long wave trough with a line of storm activity stretching
across the North Pacific entering the Pacific Northwest and
western Canada. From this area well to our northwest (approx 800
miles northwest of San Francisco) is another 500 mb trough and
surface cold front, this front is moving southeast at 20-30 mph
and is forecast to slow to 20 mph upon arrival here in our area
with a band of light to moderate rain tomorrow, Veterans Day. This
cold front is associated with a more energetic mid-latitude
pattern, however even though it`ll retain good wind shear (and SE
to NW wind shift along the front) it too will move through the
eastern side of the long wave ridge, holding its own but not
strengthening upon approaching and passing across our forecast
area. Nonetheless it`s good news from a fire weather perspective,
model ensemble rain forecasts have stabilized on wetting rains
(greater than 0.10" and then some) across almost the entire
forecast area Monday. Southwesterly lower level winds ahead of the
cold front Monday will also favor upslope cooling and enhancing
rainfall amounts in the coastal hills and mountains.

Current forecast rainfall amounts for Veterans Day:

North SF Bay: 0.3" - 0.5" valleys to 1" hills and mountains.

SF Peninsula, SF Bay Shoreline, East Bay, South Bay and the Santa
Cruz mountains: 0.2" - 0.7" highest in the hills and mountains.

North Central Coast: 0.1" - 0.4" highest along the Big Sur Coast.

Post cold frontal air mass arrives Monday night and Tuesday morning,
the rain will have moved east of the forecast area, with at least
partial clearing and light winds there`s the possibility of patches
of fog and low clouds forming by early Tuesday morning. Monday night
into Tuesday morning lows will be in the 40s except in the 30s coldest
inland valleys. Tuesday will be dry with temporarily weak 500 mb
ridging, daytime highs mainly in the 60s.

The next upstream Pacific low pressure system will reach the Pacific
Northwest and northern California, bringing a warm frontal boundary
and light rain to the Bay Area Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front
will then push through Thursday. The pattern shifts toward a deeper
500 mb trough reaching the west including our forecast area Friday
through the weekend. This will bring below mid November highs and
lows by several degrees, along with showery conditions. CPC`s outlooks
continue to show a deepening long wave trough over the western states
this weekend and early next week. PNA trend is negative, Arctic
Oscillation (AO) weakly negative (allows release of polar air to
lower latitudes). Per Oct 2024 PDO remains deep in a cool phase
and there`s recently increased (and forecast additional) snow cover
over the western states, all favor an actively chilly and wet pattern
ahead.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 938 AM PST Sun Nov 10 2024

VFR across the region this morning and will continue through the
afternoon, yet conditions will begin to deteriorate late Sunday
across the North Bay and the over the Central Coast by the end of
the forecast period. Expect MVFR/IFR conditions develop late in the
night and into Monday morning. Light and variable winds will
transition to onshore this afternoon, but by Sunday night winds will
turn to S/SE ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Some light
showers will accompany the cold front Sunday night with -RA entering
the picture late in the forecast period.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. MVFR/IFR conditions expected as the front
moves through our area Sunday night. Anticipated time will be near
10-11Z, but confidence is moderate on timing. Light to moderate
onshore winds will turn southerly by late Sunday night and become
northerly in wake of the frontal passage by midday on Monday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Low to moderate confidence on timing
for MVFR/IFR ceilings developing Sunday night, but expect near 09Z.
Some models show as early as 05Z for MVFR ceilings developing, but
confidence was too low to include in TAFs at this moment. VCSH
introduced in the TAFs around 15Z (Monday) as a frontal boundary
approaches the region.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 938 AM PST Sun Nov 10 2024

A cold front approaches and moves over the coastal waters and
bays late tonight into Veterans Day. The front will result in a
band of light rain over the waters, then a wind shift to drier
northwesterly winds. Another frontal system with rain approaches
the Bay Area during the middle of next week. Significant wave
heights begin to build Monday night and will continue to increase
through the middle of the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 9 AM PST Tuesday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Canepa
LONG TERM....Canepa
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea