Sisquoc, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

627
FXUS66 KLOX 240659
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1059 PM PST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...23/1137 AM.

A powerful winter storm will bring heavy rain and strong winds to
the area through Christmas Day. Significant flooding issues and
strong winds are expected along with the potential for strong
thunderstorms. For Friday and Saturday, a cool and showery pattern
will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...23/723 PM.

***STRONG ATMOSPHERIC WINTER STORM WITH DANGEROUS FLOODING AND
 ROCK/MUD SLIDES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING***

***UPDATE***

The storm has arrived. 00Z mdls show no change in the forecast for
this major weather event. 00Z mdls show the rains peaking over Srn
SBA county from 11pm to 9am Wednesday, VTA county from 300 am to
noon and for LA county 800 am to 400 pm. During this peak period
max rainfall rates will be between an inch and an inch and half.
Rainfall rates this high are not only capable of created flooding
and debris flows in and around burn scars but could well cause
flash flooding over non bur scar areas as well. As noted below
there will be a break in the action (with some lingering showers).
The rain on Christmas day is forecast to begin mid morning across
the Central Coast and then overspread the area during the day.

The winds have picked up as forecast and are gusting between 45
and 55 mph across the mtns and 35 to 45 mph across the Central
Coast.

The latest guidence from the hydrology department shows many
rivers rising to near flood stage tomorrow (Wednesday) between
0800 and 1000 except for the Santa Clara which will peak in the
afternoon. All rivers and streams will be watched closely.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, 12Z models and their respective ensembles are advertising
all systems a "go" for an impactful winter storm through Christmas
Day. Still looking at a moderate to strong atmospheric river to
roll across the area, bringing heavy rain and strong winds. Here
are the details:

RAIN...Light rain will continue to increase across the area this
afternoon/evening. For tonight/Wednesday, the first, and most
significant, impulse of the AR will move across the area. There
will be a relative lull in rainfall late in the day on Wednesday,
but a second shot of moderate to heavy rain will move across the
area on Christmas Day. For Friday, some lingering showers are
expected.

RAIN TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY:
North of Point Conception: 2-4 inches coastal/valley areas and
4-7 inches for foothills/mountains.

South of Point Conception: 4-7 inches coastal/valley areas and
6-14 inches foothills/mountains.

RAIN RATES: Peak rainfall rates north of Point Conception are
expected to be in the 0.40-1.00 inch/hour range. South of Point
Conception, rainfall rates are expected to be higher (0.70-1.50
inches per hour), especially on south-facing slopes.

THUNDERSTORMS: Unstable air, associated with the storm, along with
strong jet dynamics will bring a chance of of embedded
thunderstorms tonight through Thursday evening to all areas. The
STORM PREDICTION CENTER placed the area under a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorms tonight through Christmas Day. Any
thunderstorms that form will bring brief intense rainfall. More
importantly, due to the strong upper level winds, any convective
element will have a high risk to bring damaging winds.
Additionally, there will be a chance of weak, short-lived,
tornadoes or waterspouts, especially during the second wave of
energy on Thursday when there is colder air aloft and more
instability.

SNOW: Snow levels will remain above the 7500-8000 foot range
through Christmas Eve, but will drop to the 6500-7000 foot range
on Christmas Day and down to the 5500-6000 foot range on Friday.
So, no winter weather issues are expected through Christmas Eve,
but some decent accumulating snowfall will be likely at the resort
level beginning on Christmas Day.

WIND: Strong and gusty southeast to south winds are expected
today through Christmas Day. Warning level wind gusts, 60-80 MPH,
are likely across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties as
well as the Ventura/LA mountains and Antelope Valley. Elsewhere,
strong advisory-level winds, gusting 35-55 MPH, are expected. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS and WIND ADVISORIES remain in effect.

IMPACTS: Widespread and significant urban flooding will be likely
along with rock/mudslides and debris flows (with the threat not
just confined to burn areas). Streams, rivers, and creeks will
also see rapid flows, thereby increasing the threat of swift water
rescues and there is a possibility of some localized river
flooding. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA DUE TO THESE MAJOR HYDROLOGICAL RISKS. The combination
of increasingly saturated soil and the strong winds will bring the
potential for widespread downed trees and power lines, especially
in areas under a High Wind Warning.

ONCE AGAIN, THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS HOLIDAY STORM. ANYONE
TRAVELING ON CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION. MAKE SURE TO TAKE THE PROPER PROTECTIVE ACTIONS
BEFORE THE STORM HITS.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...23/140 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models are in decent synoptic agreement
through the period.

On Saturday, upper trough will swing across the area. This will
keep the possibility of some light showers across the area through
the day. High temperatures will remain 4-8 degrees below normal.

For Sunday through Tuesday, models indicate the trough will cutoff
into a low that wobbles well offshore to the southwest. The ECMWF
family has the low further offshore, allowing for a ridge to nose
in from the northwest. So, the ECMWF solution would be a bit
warmer than the GFS solution. With respect to precipitation
threat, the current official NBM forecast indicates a slight
chance of showers Monday and Tuesday. However, based on the
deterministic models looking dry, confidence in the NBM forecast
is low.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0649Z.

At 0515Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.
There was a 8000 ft deep moist layer.

Low confidence in all TAFs through the period. Cigs and Vis will
vary frequently as rain moves through the area. Fair confidence
with improving conditions after 25/00Z esp west of LA county.

There is a 10-15 percent chc of TSTMs through the period.

Strong winds will affect most airfields through 25/00Z and sites
north of Pt Conception will be affected through Friday. The winds
will generate turbulence over and near to hier trrn.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently
as rain moves through the area. There is a 10 percent chc of a
TSTM through the period. Good confidence that there will be an
east wind component over 10kt through at least 25/00Z with a 40
percent chc it extending to 15/10Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. Cigs and Vis will vary frequently
as rain moves through the area. There is a 10 percent chc of a
TSTM through the period. The strong winds will generate periods of
turbc and LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...23/800 PM.

A powerful winter storm will bring widespread, dangerous marine
weather to the coastal waters with strong winds, rough short-
period seas, heavy rain, and a chance for thunderstorms tonight
through Thursday.

Vessels, especially small vessels, are strongly advised to remain
in safe harbor for the duration of the storm, as these conditions
can sink boats. South-facing harbors will also be especially
vulnerable to the south swell and strong winds.

Details:
South to southeast winds and seas to dangerous levels will affect
the waters tonight. High-end GALE conditions can be expected,
likely strongest north of Point Conception. These strong winds are
expected to impact the nearshore waters, especially for
unsheltered south-facing coastlines and areas north of Point
Conception.

Large southerly short-period seas will develop tonight and should
linger Wednesday into Thursday, leading to elevated, choppy seas
at south-facing harbor entrances. There is also a 15-30% chance of
thunderstorms tonight through early Thursday, which will bring a
threat of erratic gusty winds, heavy downpours, cloud-to-water
lightning and a small chance of waterspouts.

&&

.BEACHES...23/802 PM.

A short to moderate period southerly wind swell will produce
choppy, large, dangerous surf and rip currents through Thursday.
A longer period NW swell will take over Friday, and surf will
continue to be significant into the weekend. It is best to remain
out of the water during this time. See High Surf Advisory (CFWLOX)
for details.

While peak tides are not very high, minor to locally moderate
coastal flooding may occur for south facing shores through
Thursday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday
      for zones 38-87-88-340>353-369-370-376>383-549-550. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday evening for
      zones 38-87-88-340>358-362-366>383-548. (See LAXFFALOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 11 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 PM PST Thursday for
      zones 354>358-362-366>368-371>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 PM PST Wednesday for zones
      645-650-655-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PST Wednesday for zones
      670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Sirard
BEACHES...RM/Black
SYNOPSIS...RAT

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox