Shandon, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

592
FXUS66 KLOX 100533
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1033 PM PDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...09/132 PM.

A gradual warming trend will continue into Thursday or Friday as
high pressure aloft builds over the region. Mostly sunny skies
will continue except for patchy night through morning low clouds
and fog at the coast. Daytime high temperatures will be well above
normal temperatures away from the coast through Friday. Onshore
flow should return for the upcoming weekend and bring a cooling
trend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...09/1032 PM.

***UPDATE***

Marine layer clouds were sparse today, allowing for good warming
as high pressure strengthened over the area. High temperatures
were ramped up to near 90 degrees for many valleys and deserts,
with warm 70s close to the coasts. High temperatures ranged from
about 5 to 15 degrees above normal, with heights rising from 582
DAM to 585 DAM. Heights rise further (to 588 DAM) Thursday, with
further and temperatures will push further into the 80s and 90s.

No significant changes needed to the forecast, except the
coverage of marine layer clouds and patchy dense fog was reduced
through Thursday night.

***From Previous Discussion***

High pressure is building over the state with weakening onshore
flow. This will continue through Friday before we quickly
transition back to cooler weather and marine layer this weekend
and next week. In the meantime, temperatures today have risen at
least 3-6 degrees over yesterday, with even bigger increases
along the Central Coast where some areas are as much as 12 degrees
warmer than yesterday.

Additional warming is expected in all areas again Thursday with
highs likely getting into the low to mid 90s in the western San
Fernando Valley and mid to high 80s elsewhere in the valleys.
Meanwhile, there will still be a shallow marine inversion near
the coast moderating temperatures there and also generating some
areas of dense fog that could linger at the beaches even into the
afternoon.

Friday now looks very similar to Thursday, if not a degree or two
warmer in some inland areas. The ridge of high pressure will be
weakening through the day and shifting eastward ahead of the next
Pacific coast trough arrival. As a result, onshore flow will be
increasing through the afternoon so it may be quick warm up in the
morning and early afternoon before a resurgent sea breeze
develops in the afternoon and brings cooling inland earlier than
previous days.

Saturday is expected to be significantly cooler in all areas with
likely a deeper and more widespread marine layer. Increasing
onshore flow will start to bring some gusty winds to the interior
in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/220 PM.

Next week looks quite cool across the area as at least two slow
moving upper lows pass through. These lows are both at least
semi-cut off from the main jet stream well to the north so timing
these will be difficult to impossible. But regardless of their
exact arrival time, the pattern itself will be a very cool one
with likely a deep marine layer at times, and possibly some night
and morning drizzle at times. High temperatures will be at least
4-8 degrees below normal through the period and possibly as much
as 8-12 degrees below normal on days when the upper lows are
passing through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...09/2326Z.

At 2258Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 400 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was near 1700 ft with a temp of 22 C.

Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX, KOXR, and KCMA. There is a
10-20% chance for VLIFR to IFR cigs between 08Z and 16Z, with
highest chances at KSMX.

Low confidence in TAFs for KOXR, KSMO, KLAX, and KLGB. There is a
40% chance KLGB remains VFR. There is a 20-40% chance for LIFR to
IFR conds at KLAX/KSMO between 05Z and 17Z, with best chances at
KLAX between 10Z and 16Z. If cigs arrive, moderate confidence in
VLIFR conds at times due to shallow marine layer.

High confidence in VFR conds for remaining TAFs.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 20-40% chance for
VV002-BKN005 cigs and vsbys between 1/2SM and 3SM between 05Z and
17Z, with best chances between 10Z and 16Z. If cigs arrive,
moderate confidence in periods of vsbys less than 1/2SM and cigs
below VV002 due to shallow marine layer. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...09/820 PM.

In the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds (21+ kt)
and/or seas (10+ ft) are expected to continue for much of the time
in the northern two zones (PZZ670/673) thru Sun evening. In the
southern zone (PZZ676), winds are expected to remain below SCA
levels thru Thu morning. Thereafter, SCA conds are expected to
persist for much of time from Thursday afternoon through at least
Sunday morning. There is a 20-40% chance of GALE force winds at
times Thurs afternoon thru Sat eve. The best chances will be late
Fri into Sat.

In the nearshore waters N of Pt Conception, SCA winds are likely
(70-80% chance) during the afternoon/eve hours thru Sat. GALE
Force winds are also possible (20-30% chance) Thursday
afternoon/eve and again late Fri into Sat (30-40% chance). There
is a moderate to likely chance of SCA level seas Friday afternoon
into early Sunday morning.

In the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level winds are possible
Thursday (30-40% chance) and likely (60-70% chance) across
western portions during the afternoon/eve hours Fri thru Sat.
Conditions are expected remain below SCA criteria for the
remainder of the weekend.

In the southern inner waters, SCA conds are not expected thru Sun
night, except for a 20% chance of SCA wins Sat afternoon/eve in
the western half of the zone.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Sunday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT
      Sunday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/MW
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Black/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox